Can Biden win?

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  • Originally posted by Bob Gillanders View Post

    Any updates? Do you still predict Trump wins in Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania?
    This is Trafalgar polling prediction that was the only polling firm to get it right in all battleground states in 2016 and during the midterms in 2018. Apparenty
    their questions take into account the "Shy Trump/Conservative" voter scenario.
    Screen Shot 2020-10-30 at 12.50.17 PM.png

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    • A very funny picture. Trump has absolutely no chances to win Oregon, Washington and Illinois.

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      • Originally posted by Bob Gillanders View Post

        Any updates? Do you still predict Trump wins in Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania?
        Looks like Trump must win Florida and N.Carolina, but it's not enough. Trump can win without Michigan and Minnesota, but his chances are pretty low in he loses both these states.

        Looks like Pennsylvania can be a deal-breaker this year.

        About myself: I made some relatively small bets this year. Trump win Florida (equal money), North Carolina (almost equal) and USA (2.75). I was much more confident 4 years ago.

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        • Originally posted by Victor Plotkin View Post
          A very funny picture. Trump has absolutely no chances to win Oregon, Washington and Illinois.
          Assuming you are correct and we throw in Pensylvania for good measure,Trump still wins

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          • I've been following Polli, a political AI algorithm from Advanced Symbolics Inc in Ottawa, that has successfully called Trudeau 2015 & 2019, Trump 2015 and Brexit. They have made periodic visits to The Agenda, on TVO. If you check TVO's online archives you can find some of their visits. Interesting, beyond the political ramifications.
            I believe the link will take you to their electoral map.
            https://advancedsymbolics.com/us-election-2/

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            • Originally posted by Rob Gashgarian View Post
              I've been following Polli, a political AI algorithm from Advanced Symbolics Inc in Ottawa, that has successfully called Trudeau 2015 & 2019, Trump 2015 and Brexit. They have made periodic visits to The Agenda, on TVO. If you check TVO's online archives you can find some of their visits. Interesting, beyond the political ramifications.
              I believe the link will take you to their electoral map.
              https://advancedsymbolics.com/us-election-2/
              Hi Rob. Great looking logo for the BCC!! Does the red symbolize the sauce on Tony F.'s onions & anchovies pizzas?
              :)

              p.s. the link has numbers I like!
              "We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office." - Aesop
              "Only the dead have seen the end of war." - Plato
              "If once a man indulges himself in murder, very soon he comes to think little of robbing; and from robbing he comes next to drinking and Sabbath-breaking, and from that to incivility and procrastination." - Thomas De Quincey

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              • What is your take on the way the electoral college is set up in most states? i.e. whoever wins the popular vote in each state takes ALL the electors?

                It seems this disincentivizes voters in particular states : for example, a Republican voter in California or a Democrat voter in Texas can't be really faulted for thinking that their vote doesn't count, and may even be motivated to not vote.

                Would a proportional system be more fair/representative ? The system in Maine/Nebraska seems to be a very good alternative as well.

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                • Ah I see... Maine and Nebraska allow electoral college votes to be split. Not clear to me how the split is determined (perhaps purely by proportion?).
                  The whole electoral college idea is outdated (if it ever did make sense) but I don't see the U.S. changing how that works - they haven't even adopted metric.
                  ...Mike Pence: the Lord of the fly.

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                  • Maine has 4 voting regions. Probably going 3-1 for Biden.

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                    • Originally posted by Ken Craft View Post
                      Maine has 4 voting regions. Probably going 3-1 for Biden.
                      I thought they awarded two electoral votes to the statewide popular vote winner and 1 vote to each of their 2 district's popular vote?
                      Everybody gets so much information all day long that they lose their common sense. - Gertrude Stein

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                      • Originally posted by Sam Sharpe View Post

                        I thought they awarded two electoral votes to the statewide popular vote winner and 1 vote to each of their 2 district's popular vote?
                        You are correct. Maine has 2 electors for statewide and 1 for each of 2 congressional districts (total 4). Nebraska has 2 electors for the statewide vote and 1 elector for each of 3 congressional districts (total 5). Every other state is a winner-take-all scenario (although I think one state has proposed switching away from the winner-take-all).

                        Steve

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                        • I stand corrected, Sam. I shouldn't have been operating from memory.

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                          • I find the US system strange, Ken. But that's mainly because I don't live there LOL
                            Even my wife commented "Why don't they have something like 'Elections Canada' to run things?"
                            Everybody gets so much information all day long that they lose their common sense. - Gertrude Stein

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                            • The US was founded with the rejection of "kings" and powerful central government. Distrust of government, particularly a central one is very strong in their culture.

                              Much of the power of government is devolved to the state level. As an example, although there are a gazillion banks and/or insurance companies in the US, very few operate nationwide because any financial company has to be registered in, and adhere to the regulations of, any state in which they operate.

                              Elections are run by the individual states and they all have different rules.

                              Steve

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                              • Oh, I understand they whys and wherefores, but it still feels strange/unnatural to me.
                                Everybody gets so much information all day long that they lose their common sense. - Gertrude Stein

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