Can Biden win?

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  • Thanks Rob. I really enjoyed seeing the prediction from Polli, 372.
    The advance polling has been huge, I have to believe that is bad news for Trump.

    So my final prediction is: well, Biden needs 270 to win, and it could be a landslide, so going way out on a limb here, LOL

    Biden wins with between 270 and 372.

    Let the drinking begin. :)



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    • Originally posted by Sam Sharpe View Post
      Oh, I understand they whys and wherefores, but it still feels strange/unnatural to me.
      What I find strange is the extent to which the two parties seek to prevent people from voting, and registering to vote, as well as gerrymandering districts. In Canada, we have voting stations every few blocks, in some states that have to travel 100 miles, line up for 6 hours, and provide photo id/literacy test. Their name may have been purged from the voters lists.Internationally they talk about being pro democracy, but are afraid of American citizens voting. Around 100 million Americans have voted by mail, yet some states aren't going to count them all, even military votes. If it's a close vote tonight, there will be court cases to not open the mail votes. And three of the Justices of the Supreme Court worked on the case to not count all the votes in Florida which resulted in Bush winning over Gore. Democrats will have to win big, get states such as Texas, and get over 60% for it to be accepted. If Biden wins, Trump still has a few months to destroy as much of the functioning of the government as he can.

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      • Gerrymandering: America's contribution to the world's political lexicon
        When the chess game is over, the pawn and the king go back to the same box. - Irish Saying

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        • Gerrymandering dates from Elbridge Gerry, an active American politician 200+ years ago. Canada got rid of it in the mid-1950s.
          There have been five American instances where a presidential candidate received more popular votes than opponent(s), yet did not win the presidency. All five of these hard-luck cases were Democrats, although the parties 200 years ago are not exactly the same as today.
          1) 1824: Andrew Jackson lost to John Quincy Adams (Jackson won the rematch in 1828);
          2) 1876: Horace Greeley lost to Rutherford Hayes;
          3) 1888: Grover Cleveland lost to Benjamin Harrison (Cleveland won the rematch in 1892);
          4) 2000: Al Gore lost to George W. Bush;
          5) 2016: Hillary Clinton lost to Donald Trump (Hillary polled almost three million more votes!) .
          I still think it is possible that Joe Biden could out-poll Donald Trump by up to eight million votes in 2020, and still lose the presidency in the Electoral College. This would be because many states Biden would win would come with large margins, and many of Trump's wins, especially in the battleground states, would be with narrow margins. Biden could win California by between four and five million votes; he could win New York by two million votes.
          One more remote possibility: if there is a tie at 269 (out of 538), in the Electoral College, whoever won the most states at the Electoral College becomes president. It has never happened before. It was very close to that in 2000.

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          • Status quo for Senate. Status quo for House. Possibly status quo for White House. The Supreme Court is going to wish that they had made a decision on the Pennsylvania questions before the election.

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            • Originally posted by Victor Plotkin View Post

              Looks like Trump must win Florida and N.Carolina, but it's not enough. Trump can win without Michigan and Minnesota, but his chances are pretty low in he loses both these states.

              Looks like Pennsylvania can be a deal-breaker this year.

              About myself: I made some relatively small bets this year. Trump win Florida (equal money), North Carolina (almost equal) and USA (2.75). I was much more confident 4 years ago.

              Nice bets! I hope you put a lot of money down.

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              • Originally posted by Joshua Guo View Post


                Nice bets! I hope you put a lot of money down.
                Thank you. I won a bet for Florida and very likely a bet for N.Carolina.

                2 hours ago, I closed my bet on Tramp in general election, by betting "insurance bet" on Biden (equal money). In any case, I win around 20-25% of my initial bet.

                My mistake was not betting on Arizona for Biden - I was very positive that demography will win this state for him.

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                • Originally posted by Sam Sharpe View Post
                  I find the US system strange, Ken. But that's mainly because I don't live there LOL
                  Even my wife commented "Why don't they have something like 'Elections Canada' to run things?"
                  Commentary by C Christine Fair, a US-based professor, on the electoral college, gerrymandering and much else.

                  https://twitter.com/TimesNow/status/1323986729968099328

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                  • Originally posted by Sam Sharpe View Post
                    I find the US system strange, Ken. But that's mainly because I don't live there LOL
                    Even my wife commented "Why don't they have something like 'Elections Canada' to run things?"
                    Maybe they should just hire Elections Canada to run their elections for them. They like to think of themselves as the world's foremost democracy but they can't even conduct an election without major f. ups. Maybe the U.N. should offer their monitoring services to the U.S. - just like they do with other banana republics.
                    "We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office." - Aesop
                    "Only the dead have seen the end of war." - Plato
                    "If once a man indulges himself in murder, very soon he comes to think little of robbing; and from robbing he comes next to drinking and Sabbath-breaking, and from that to incivility and procrastination." - Thomas De Quincey

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                    • I guess the name of this thread should be changed to "Did Biden win?"

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                      • Whatever the eventual outcome, it looks like America will remain "a country divided" for the foreseeable future.
                        When the chess game is over, the pawn and the king go back to the same box. - Irish Saying

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                        • Although at this time it still isn't known whether Biden or Trump will be in the White House for the next 4 years, this election has nevertheless proven the following things to me:

                          - polls can never be trusted again. In fact, they should be done away with altogether. Polls depend on honesty, which has gone with the wind.

                          - Republicans paid no political price for their multiple and very serious transgressions. Their biggest ass-kisser and flip-flop artist, Lindsey Graham, won reelection in South Carolina. The most despicable human in politics, Mitch McConnell, won reelection in Kentucky. The biggest fake in politics, Susan Collins, won reelection in Maine. They will all be emboldened by not having to pay the price they should have paid.

                          - division and hatred will continue to rise in America and civil war, or widespread violence in some form, is now a very likely outcome.

                          - Brad Thomson was correct in his earlier postings that America is doomed to collapse... a house divided against itself cannot stand.

                          Whether it's Trump or Biden, doesn't really matter. We are going into a very dark hole.

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                          • Originally posted by Pargat Perrer View Post
                            Although at this time it still isn't known whether Biden or Trump will be in the White House for the next 4 years, this election has nevertheless proven the following things to me:

                            - polls can never be trusted again. In fact, they should be done away with altogether. Polls depend on honesty, which has gone with the wind.

                            - Republicans paid no political price for their multiple and very serious transgressions. Their biggest ass-kisser and flip-flop artist, Lindsey Graham, won reelection in South Carolina. The most despicable human in politics, Mitch McConnell, won reelection in Kentucky. The biggest fake in politics, Susan Collins, won reelection in Maine. They will all be emboldened by not having to pay the price they should have paid.

                            - division and hatred will continue to rise in America and civil war, or widespread violence in some form, is now a very likely outcome.

                            - Brad Thomson was correct in his earlier postings that America is doomed to collapse... a house divided against itself cannot stand.

                            Whether it's Trump or Biden, doesn't really matter. We are going into a very dark hole.



                            Pray tell us how you really think about these people, Pargat!!!

                            Is there anyone on the DemocRats side who you think should have paid the price?

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                            • Originally posted by Vlad Drkulec View Post

                              The greatest voter suppression is being carried out by the Dems and their media water carriers. Those who believe the Dems believe in the lockdowns and are afraid of getting covid. They will not vote if they think that it will lead to their deaths. Many of them think that way.
                              What about Trump claiming victory with millions of probable-democrat leaning mail-in ballots still being counted?

                              https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wOVs-r968qg

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                              • Originally posted by Jeffrey Xu View Post

                                What about Trump claiming victory with millions of probable-democrat leaning mail-in ballots still being counted?

                                https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wOVs-r968qg
                                What about Democratic state operatives denying the legal right of scrutineers to exercise scrutiny of the ballots being counted. There are reports of people being denied the right to vote because they supposedly already voted though they had not.. In Canada, I recall working as one of the polling officers many years ago. There was a person from the Conservatives, another from the Liberals, another from the NDP watching the vote counting. You needed ID to vote or you had to have someone with ID to vouch for you.

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