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Dark Knight / Le Chevalier Noir
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Nice to watch oscillating currencies. I traded in $8,000 US that I had in one bank account. The exchange was pretty sweet.
I should have listened to one Canadian IM who told me that I should buy as many US dollars as possible when the exchange was roughly par not so long ago. I could have made some real money.
Financial rollercoasters are generally good for people who have money. Unfortunately, most people waste money on useless consumables and thus have no money to invest.
"Tom is a well known racist, and like most of them he won't admit it, possibly even to himself." - Ed Seedhouse, October 4, 2020.
Nice to watch oscillating currencies. I traded in $8,000 US that I had in one bank account. The exchange was pretty sweet.
I should have listened to one Canadian IM who told me that I should buy as many US dollars as possible when the exchange was roughly par not so long ago. I could have made some real money.
Financial rollercoasters are generally good for people who have money. Unfortunately, most people waste money on useless consumables and thus have no money to invest.
I didn't expect the Canadian dollar to tank against the U.S. dollar so fast. Had I known I'd have used a bear ETF, but that's gambling and I can't see the future. I used a bear ETF to short oil when it got high some time ago. Sold that when I wasn't sure which way oil would move. Wrong guess and I should have held.
When PM Harper noted it was a good time to buy stocks I thought I'd start up my depression portfolio. He's an economist and should have a fair idea of what's happening. The three I have in that each have at least a third of their revenue in U.S. dollars, AFAIK, and report in Canadian. One trades mostly on New York so with our dollar dropping it's up in price on the TSX even though it's down in the U.S.
My wife says if I don't stay out of the grocery money I'll be competing with my dog, Beware, for the Premium Kibble. :)
You might well be right about rollercoaster markets. This market has been so violently down that I personally don't know anyone who isn't being hurt in it. That includes me and the funny thing is I saw it coming. What I didn't see is the violence and intensity. I mostly buy and hold rather than trade.
I've read in books about guys who bought decent companies stock during the last depression and did very well. I can't resist.
1) The price of oil skyrockets. This causes a rise in the price of pretty much ... everything. Eventually it triggers a recession as people are unable to afford to "shop 'til they drop" indefinitely at the new high prices. They wll try like crazy to live it up: deplete their savings, get more credit cards, use their homes as ATMs, etc. This has already happened.
2) Recession contracts oil demand as people cannot buy as much, have to pay down their debt levels, cannot afford to fly or buy SUVs, etc. - and, yes, are forced to be frugal. This is just starting to happen.
3) Countries emerge from recessions, probably via some sort of government tinkering, which causes the demand for oil to increase. This causes price spikes upwards. Each spike, I should think, will be higher than the ones before. Each new plateau will be higher as well.
4) Go back to 1.
Each time it happens the problem will get worse and worse, and everyone will start pointing their fingers all over the place in blame ("the Arabs/Venezuelans/Nigerians/Russians! the government! Big Business! Secret Society X!"). The truth is that there are too many people on the planet, populations continue to grow, people consume too much and continue to consume more per capita. Meanwhile we live on a finiite planet with finite resources.
No politician could ever even hope to survive with a platform based on penalizing people who bear lots of children, penalizing people who consume too much, and creating artificial scarcity to get people used to the idea that driving their Hummer to the corner store is just not sustainable behaviour. So I expect the governments to buy up more debt, try to bail out or buy up more industries, and above all present short-term solutions as some sort of panacea to a public who, of course, will lap it up as long as they don't have to make any sacrifices. Will people read magazine articles about being frugal? Sure. Will they change their behaviour permanently? I think that is highly, highly unlikely.
Me, I plan to move "into the woods" in less than ten years, grow my own food, and get off the grid. The question isn't if the present way the world is going is sustainable. Clearly it can't be. The question is just how long until the wheels fall off. I hope it is at least ten years from now (so I can bail), but I admit that my intuition tells me that we probably don't have that long before even the dullest person recognizes what's likely to happen next.
Just one man's opinion.
"Tom is a well known racist, and like most of them he won't admit it, possibly even to himself." - Ed Seedhouse, October 4, 2020.
You're probably right on the price of oil and also natural gas. This current crash is starting to look like around 1980. When prices dropped drastically the higher cost producers and explorers with lots of debt tended to go under and the senior companies picked up the assets. Also some couldn't meet their working interest commitments.
I'm currently playing a Norwegan who is in the business. Knows all about seismic and finding and developing fields from what I can gather. They look for oil and gas in exotic places around the world.
The problem with high prices is how it effects our industrial and manufacturing businesses. When the price used to go up and a company complained I used to have to go and explain. The price was a fraction of what it is now. It becomes hard to compete with nations which have low labour costs and subsidize the energy costs to entice the industries to relocate. It becomes cheaper to make product elsewhere and ship it to Canada for sale. For many things the cost of the energy is a major input cost and they set their pricing with this cost in mind. Steel, autos, sugar refineries and so forth are examples of high energy users. Many companies are no longer in production. They level the plant to the ground as well in many cases, as taxes on vacant land is less than paying on a very large empty buildings.
There is still lots of oil and gas in the ground and the U.S. intends to drill for it. If McCain wins I think he's planning on promoting nuclear energy for hydro use as well. Cuba has found a lot of offshore oil. In the billions of barrels but it's deep and expensive to drill. Higher break even cost. Another problem, from what I understand, is it's close to the U.S. coast and the U.S. is worried about an accidental oil spill. It could effectively foul the beaches and ruin the very lucrative U.S. tourist industry.
One of the cleverest statements I've seen on all this I first saw years ago on the tag attached by string to a Salada tea bag: "The U.S. has the highest standard of living in the world. Too bad they can't afford it."
Only the rushing is heard...
Onward flies the bird.
Man, just heard "The Darkest Time", the latest single from Slow Burning Lights' November 11 electro-pop full-length. Needless to say, I curled up into a ball and cried, in a good way.
everytime it hurts, it hurts just like the first (and then you cry till there's no more tears)
Man, just heard "The Darkest Time", the latest single from Slow Burning Lights' November 11 electro-pop full-length. Needless to say, I curled up into a ball and cried, in a good way.
Maybe an evening of listening to John Denver singing Rocky Mountain High and a bunch of other old chart toppers will do it for you. Personally, it makes me nauseas.
Since Ken seems to be crying out for my take on recent events, I can hardly not oblige.
You might have noticed Ontario is now a "have not" province. The Center of the Universe will now depend on the colonies to send us money. At long last, we will be calm and collect.
Many may think this is a short term event but I think the situation will last longer than the politicians are expecting. Businesses, Industrial and Commerical, have closed their doors and moved elsewhere or packed it in. Only the other day I was listening to the replay of the conference call Transforce Inc., a very large trucking company, held along with their third quarter results. The CEO stated that their traffic heading north from the U.S. was still robust but that traffic heading south from Quebec and Ontario are still weakening. Not surprising in view of how sensitive many of the industries were to energy prices.
I don't expect the tax season to provide much relief for Ottawa in the way of tax revenue. Many investors will sell their beat down dog stocks to buy other beat down dog stocks, thereby locking in a capital loss for this year and to carry forward.
Unless there is some energy price relief for Eastern Canada business, it doesn't seem eastern and western Canada can co-exist in any meaningful manner. Trudeau recognized this and his energy policy which allowed for lower pricing within Canada saved many businesses back around the 80's when oil got very high for the times. After the prices came back down the businesses in the east were still in existance. Harper didn't do that and, in my view, he has completely failed Ontario. As a result of demand destruction and the current financial meltdown, I wouldn't be surprised to see oil hit 35 dollars a barrel. It brings back memories of Dome Petroleum and what happened last time the bottom dropped out of the oil market.
I know Ken has been egging me on to write more on the depression so I am obliging him. Ken, I'm looking for more items for my Depression Portfolio. There really isn't any rush, though. It's not like this is going to end any time soon, in my estimation.
DISCLAIMER: None of what I write should be used for investment decisions. I write this stuff for entertainment. Consult a financial adviser.
Maybe an evening of listening to John Denver singing Rocky Mountain High and a bunch of other old chart toppers will do it for you. Personally, it makes me nauseas.
See, I don't know about what the hell you're yammering. "Naseus"? That's not even a word. John Denver? YUK! Chart toppers? Who the hell cares about charts. I don't need structures designed to serve the insufferable masses to decide what's good. I didn't read the rest of your post because why the hell would I, right?
You're an old man and old men don't know anything about music. Well, today's your lucky day, Gariatric (YOUR NEW NICKNAME!!!), because I'm going to educate you. Today is lesson one: trip-hop. Lesson one: one part: Portishead.
Not familiar with Portishead? Idiot! Portishead basically mastered the ability to turn cinema into an audible artform. A lot of idiots will blabber something about DJ Shadow, but just smack them in the face and call them idiots.
But enough about idiots, let's talk about Portishead. Portishead formed in Bristol, Britain in the early 1990s. They've put out three full-length studio albums: Dummy, Portishead and Third. Portishead use a blend of original instrumentation and samples to create a down-tempo, often dark brand of music that blurs the lines between jazz, hip-hop and electronic. If that doesn't sound intriguing, you disgust me.
Portishead's best album is Dummy, by far. No one would say otherwise; that would just be absurd. Here are a few tracks from the album:
The best Portishead song - and this is not my opinion, it is generally agreed upon by men of substance - is Numb.
*When I searched "numb" on Youtube, the first result was some song by Linkin Park. I've never so strongly supported sterilisation of the musically disabled.
everytime it hurts, it hurts just like the first (and then you cry till there's no more tears)
Benjamin, you're very definately a John Denver type fan. Possibly 10 straight hours of listening to Annie's Song should appeal to your softer parts, which are probably between your ears. Personally, the song makes me throw up.
Thank you for the Tourette like response. It made all the garbage I wrote to evoke the outburst worthwhile.
Since we're on the topic of music, and in keeping with the original title of this thread, may I recommend a short but timely Hawkwind tune: "Welcome To The Future", with the following lyrics:
(Calvert)
Welcome to the oceans in a labeled can,
Welcome to the dehydrated lands,
Welcome to the self police parade,
Welcome to the neo-golden age,
Welcome to the days you've made
You're welcome
You're welcome
You're WELCOME!
You're welcome
And from the early '70s, when cloning was one of those "way out there" concepts, here's another lyrical sampling from the greatest space rock band of all time:
(Brock / Calvert)
I would have like you to have been deep frozen too
and waiting still as fresh in your flesh for my return to earth
but your father refused to sign the forms to freeze you
let's see
you'd be
about sixty now
and long dead
by the the time i return to earth
my time held dreams
were full of you
as you were when i left:
still under-age
your android replica
is playing up again
it's no joke
when she comes she moans another's name
that's the spirit of the age
(spirit of the age)
it's just the spirit of the age
(spirit of the age)
that's the spirit of the age
(spirit of the age)
that's the spirit of the age
i am a clone
i am not alone
every fibre of my flesh and bone
is identical to the others'
everything i say
is in the same tone
as my test-tube brothers' voice.
there is no choice
between us
if you had ever seen us
you'd rejoice in your uniqueness
and consider every weakness
something special of your own
being a clone
i have no flaws to identify
even this doggerel
that pours from my pen
has just been written by
another twenty telepathic men
it says:
o for the wings
of any bird
other than a battery hen.
but that's the spirit of the age
(spirit of the age)
that's just the spirit of the age
(spirit of the age)
it's just the spirit of the age
(spirit of the age)
it's just the spirit of the age
(spirit of the age)
My favorite lines from this:
"rejoice in your uniqueness
and consider every weakness
something special of your own"
An interesting concept for human chess players!
Only the rushing is heard...
Onward flies the bird.
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