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If you'd have followed my advice last January ( see quote ) and bought call options in Canadian banks you'd have done very well. Not all the info on here is useless drivel my investment call was way ahead of the curve.
" Moving forward, buying call options on companies in certain depressed sectors might be a good idea for a risk tolerant investor. I disagree with you on Canadian banks they are in much better shape then the US banks because they are an oligopoly and basically have a license to print money based on Canadian consumers. "
Last edited by Duncan Smith; Saturday, 29th August, 2009, 04:41 PM.
I'm not very good on short term moves. I like to try to catch a trend. I played the banks through ETF's. I still have all my UYG which is up close to 100%. It's a 2x based on the DJUSFN index. Looking at the chart for that one I figure that index will probably go to 300 where I might lighten up a bit. I don't know what UYG will be at when the index gets there but with an ETF I watch the underlying index or commodity.
I imagine there will be a lot of Nat Gas locked in if the low prices continue. Some companies are hedged at higher prices than what they can get on the open market so it's economical for them to keep putting it out. I don't think they are drilling all that many gas wells. Usually after about a year the pressure in a well has dropped and so has the production. After 3 years you're getting even less. I think with that stuff they have to keep drilling and the drill utilization in Western Canada is very low.
Most people only know the price of natural gas by the cu. meter because that's what they see on their utility bill. However, the price talked about in the media is by thousand cubic ft. (MCF). The multiplier for converting cu ft to cu meters is .0283. So if the NYMEX price you hear on TV is U.S. $3.00 per MCF, it's U.S. .085 cents per cu. meter. If a person is locked in to a contract at CDN 40 cents a cu. meter, it's CDN $14.12 per thousand cubic feet.
I'm not really into resource companies to a great extend. I still have all that Sherritt I got at a low price. It pays a dividend and I like Nickel. The smelter is here in Canada and they ship the concentrate back here for refining as far as I know. That's why I'm not worried about nationalization of the Cuban operations. Nickel/Laterite deposits are more challenging to mine and separate than are Nickel sulphate deposits. Still have the retirement homes, trucking companies, paper, etc. I started getting back into one of the vehicle companies when it dropped. I hope it drops more so I can average way down but can't see any reason why it should. It's U.S. small cap stuff.
I also like Uranium but play it through USEC Inc. I think they take Uranium which is prepared by maybe a company such as Cameco, which you like, and turn it into Low Enriched Uranium which can be used in the light water reactors. They also refuel the reactors usually on an 18 to 24 month cycle. What they are selling is Separative Work Units (SWU)'s. The price of SWU's seem to be holding up nicely. They are working on a new project and hoping to get a government loan guarantee. There was a setback and the company got whacked. Right back to around $3.50. So I doubled down on it. They are a money making company but the new plant and technology will probably cost them another 2 billion. They have already put in around 1.5 billion. The cost is the risk of this play. If I didn't think they will get the loan guarantees I'd sell. I'm up on it. I'm thinking they will get it and like the upside potential.
I've thought about trying options, but like I said, short term I don't like my chances. I'm better at picking long term and sometimes I get real lucky and get a flip.
I hope you too are up over the last year.
DISCLAIMER: None of what I write should be used for investment decisions. I write this stuff for entertainment. Consult a financial advisor.
I so hate having to scroll through all this thread to see what you, or others, are bleating about this time.
Then learn to use the system!! A click on the little graphic to the left of the thread link will take you straight to the last message you haven't read. A common feature on many discussion boards.
All the talk of a correction has been going on for months, mostly from stock analysts that totally missed the boat that this is a bull market. They are fishing to be "right" just once.
This past week was an interesting ride. I don't see the same signs as last year but maybe I'm not looking in the right places.
I had some cash from stuff I sold and like to buy on dips. Probably you recall we talked about Bombardier some time ago. I took a good look at it back then. There was a lot of negative talk on that one just before their earnings report. I thought the earnings would beat the estimates. The stock got down to 3.80 so I bought some. First time I have ever bought that one. I got BBD.A. The difference between the BBD.A and BBD.b, as far as I can tell, is the A shares are multiple voting. They have 10 votes per share and the B shares have 1 vote pre share. Sometimes I keep these kind of companies for a long time when they have a dividend. There's lots of worldwide infrastructure money around and they build a good product. I figure the Aerospace sector will pick up before the trains and bus spending runs out.
I bought another one but it didn't work out as well. Com Dev (CDV) on a decent earning report. It actually dropped. In any case, I like the business and the earnings.
Got another one. Ladies clothing lines. NADAQ in the U.S. Only a small amount. It's a turnaround bet. Either it will turn around or go under. If it turns around it will be an easy 5 bagger. They have hired a turnaround firm to help them.
I saw Gordon Ritchie on TV Friday morning talking about softwood lumber. He always gives an interesting interview. Normally, I'm not up that early in the morning so I was lucky to catch the interview.
DISCLAIMER: None of what I write should be used for investment decisions. I write this stuff for entertainment. Consult a financial advisor.
Natural gas hasn't been doing well lately. With an ETF, even a 1 times ETF, if you don't get the direction the commodity will move correctly and there is a large contango, the decay in the monthly switch from one contract to the next can be very expensive. I got the direction wrong.
I notice there was a lot of stimulus spending announced in Toronto a day or two ago. I guess finally the stimulus money is starting, or at least threatening, to flow. An election must be around the corner. I don't know about you, but I'm getting tired of the negative attack ads the Conservatives use to flood the airwaves.
I don't think it will make much difference to me who wins the next election. I didn't even vote last time because I felt it was a waste of time. I might try to get out and vote this time to try to stop all those negative attack ads.
I'm watching an interesting court case in B.C. A company is arguing their property taxes. It revolves around if the tax levels the local governments in 4 towns have imposed on a corporation are reasonable and, I suppose, legal. I think the judge is hearing all 4 cases before he decides. He's heard 2 or 3 now. The way I understand it is even if he decides the tax rates are reasonable, the corporation still has the same rights as anyone else to not pay and wait almost 3 years. One towns paper mill has been closed down for around 6 months or more and there is no guarantee it will ever be reopened. My experience with these things is that if trucks come in and start moving out the machinery, it's not a good sign.
I'm prepared for next week.
DISCLAIMER: None of what I write should be used for investment decisions. I write this stuff for entertainment. Consult a financial advisor.
Everyone seem to think the worst is over. Good times are here again.
Personally, I don't kow. The signs I see are mixed and there appear to be some things which make me wonder. I see a lot of companies selling stock to raise cash. "Consolidation" happening in a lot of industries. Still, there are sectors of the economy which still need to see a recovery.
The stock market has been humming along. I sold some stuff last week. They had gone up and I decided I wanted the money. If I'm right I'll buy the stock back at a cheaper price and have some money left over. If I'm wrong all I'll have is money. I never worry about selling too soon and leaving some money to be made by the person who buys. There is always another "bus" I can catch.
Don't get the idea I win on all of them. I don't. I sold the natural gas ETF and lost around $20.00. The idea was to get out before the contracts rolled over to the next month. The contango in the contracts is quite large and there is erosion as a result. I just wanted to get out. Got rid of Bombardier as well. Bought it the day before the earnings report and it gained more than a dollar a share. Not bad for about a one week hold. Sold other companies as well. But I bought Jazz Air Income Fund. I have no idea if this will go up or down but I like the distribution of around 17% after the recent cut. At the time of the cut, they said they thought they could maintain that even after they had to start paying taxes in 2011. I guess then it will be a dividend. I didn't buy it to make money but for the distribution/dividend.
I don't buy oil and gas stocks to any great extent nor have I been buying gold mining stocks. I like the stocks that sell the picks and shovels and provide services. I have one I really like, although, it's been doing nothing. It's called Boots and Coots Inc. It's not a requirement that it go up to any great extent for me to hold it. Only that I like it. I don't know if any of you watched the movie, "Hellfighters". It's about fighting well blowouts. The movie was, as far as I know, based loosely on the career or "Red" Adair, who was famous for fighting oil and gas well blowouts around the world. Two of his employees started Boots and Coots many years ago. These days they do a lot of other things beside fighting well fires. They do well intervention, pressure control, well workovers and so forth. Sometimes I hold this kind of company for decades, or until they do everything any reasonable person could expect.
Can't end without mentioning Pulp and Paper. Catalyst Paper is one I'm holding onto real tight. I have more shares than some of the directors. Got them real cheap but that's not the point. Ownership never asks what you paid, and a stock doesn't know if you're up on it or down on it.
Anyhow, I was reading Catalyst is considering opening one of their mills which has been closed. Starting up one or two paper machines. I think it might be the mill which was closed for more than 6 months. Elk Falls? I was reading the company has made an offer to the union for some concession and the company wants to give some profit sharing in return. I guess first they have to make a profit. I have no idea if the union will accept the deal and don't really care because I can't imagine the company couldn't utilize the other facilities to a fuller capacity.
Anyhow, the profit sharing sounds pretty good to me, as a shareholder. I wish they would share some of the profits with us long suffering shareholders in the way of dividends. When they make profits, of course.
While the stock market might keep running for another while, I'm watching some indicators like auto sales and the retail sales in the upcoming holiday season. It seems to me the number of large trucks on the road have picked up and I consider that an indicator more goods are being transported. I watch the earning from that sector. Shipping is another indicator for me. The Baltic Dry Index.
I'm not sure the economic downturn is over and am going to watch the earnings reports for the next couple of quarters. Particularly in the natural gas sector.
DISCLAIMER: None of what I write should be used for investment decisions. I write this stuff for entertainment. Consult a financial advisor.
It's been a bit over a year since I started writing this thread. The question is if it has been a depression. At the beginning of the last depression, as I've read because I wasn't around then, people thought the drop in the market was like a bump along a roadway. A small depression. It turned into much more than that. We really haven't had enough bad times to really define a depression with any great degree of accuracy, from what I've seen. Mostly, what we have seen is recessions, as they are called. In about 10 years or more, the historians will have a look back and put a name on what we have been seeing. It's hard to do that now as we don't know if the bad times have ended or how long it will take to recover. Still, we've seen a couple of major North American auto makers declare bankruptcy. Major banks have gone under. The Americans, who don't normally like government involvement in business, have seen their government thow gobs of money at failing financial institutions. They are learning what "too big to fail" means. For openers, it means they have to throw hugh, obscene, amounts of money at the biggies to keep them from going under. Now, they might be kidding themselves into thinking it's the government who throws money at the institutions, much as we do, but the reality is the governments don't have money. They get it from the people. Soon, the taxes, up they will go! I'm also interested in seeing what happens with inflation.
Let's look at inflation. Is it generally bad? I suppose for those on a fixed income it is bad. For workers and businesses they pay more for materials and labour, the governments collect more taxes from higher paid workers and expenses are met. Back when interest rates were more than 20% here in Canada, the idea was to buy the biggest house you could get. Within a couple of years wages would increase enough so a person could more easily afford the mortgage.
So really, what is inflation after such a large spending spree? I think it's paying for what you borrowed in todays hard dollars with tomorrows soft dollars. This is an important concept. Borrowing todays hard dollars and paying back with tomorrows inflated dollars.
The 1920's to 40's saw the boom, bust, war cycle.
I was at a book store today. Saw a couple of books on how to make money from the market in these times. I don't buy those kind of books and consider them the surest way to lose money. From my observation, the only real rule is that there are no rules. I have to do my own analysis, use my own criteria and have some luck. Professional analysis is only a starting point for me. It's been my observation over the years that I could make money on almost any market investment. (I'm talking reputable listed companies here.) The important thing is when I bought them. I've lost a lot on oil and gas over the years and am probably net losing on that sector. I missed the part where the companies I held went bankrupt. The passing decades took the sting out of that and I'd like to think I learned something from that experience. Like how to read and understand income, balance sheets and cash flow statements a bit better.
I guess some of you read this stuff to see what I'm buying recently. I picked up some shares in a global engineering company, Air Canada and Torstar. I'm thinking the fears of Air Canada going under are overblown. It's what I thought when I bought the Jazz Air income fund. Torstar is nicely priced and pays a decent dividend I think they can sustain. This is my independent analysis. Remember that I don't recommend companies. I buy and sell their shares for myself as the urge strikes me.
I bought some shares in what I consider an interesting company. It's a penny stock. One of those Therapeutic companies which develops drugs. This company targets Alzheimer's disease, frontotemporal dementia, and schizophrenia-related cognitive impairment problems. They are into stage II testing with more testing to start later this year, from what I can gather. They are targeting the progression of neurodegenerative diseases, rather than simply treating the symptoms. They are doing clinical stage studies and I like their approach. I guess I could lose on this one but I think they are approaching the problem properly and think they deserve some support. Probably some of you reading this understand the process and blood brain barrier a lot better than I do, so, because of that and space limitations, I won't get into it.
The stock markets seem to be a little unsteady this last days. My own thoughts are the next quarter will depend on if the earning reports which will be reported the next month or so will dictate the direction of the market. I'm looking for companies who meet or beat expectations to at least hold their won with investors.
I was going to ramble a bit about Beware, the vet and dental work but have taken as much space as I dare.
DISCLAIMER: None of what I write should be used for investment decisions. I write this stuff for entertainment. Consult a financial advisor.
So far it has been amazingly good. I put some excess money into two mutual funds in early September. Thus far both are up over 50%. One was mostly concerned with oil; the other mostly with precious metals. I think the markets for both are likely to go up enormously, especially when it becomes clear that all this stimulus spending and the resulting demise of the US dollar is going to make the US economy radioactive for a long time.
"Tom is a well known racist, and like most of them he won't admit it, possibly even to himself." - Ed Seedhouse, October 4, 2020.
So far it has been amazingly good. I put some excess money into two mutual funds in early September. Thus far both are up over 50%. One was mostly concerned with oil; the other mostly with precious metals. I think the markets for both are likely to go up enormously, especially when it becomes clear that all this stimulus spending and the resulting demise of the US dollar is going to make the US economy radioactive for a long time.
Those are great returns! I think during what they call the great depression the main mining company did well. Oil and gas wouldn't have been such a big deal back then.
I like buying trucking company shares. I was listening to the conference call reply from one today. The CEO was saying trucking volumes are still off. So's revenue. He's hopefull next year will be better, but I'm not so sure. Anyhow, he's a sharp operator and they seem to make money.
The other trucking company is a turnaround project. A U.S. company. They report early in November. If they can break even this quarter, like they estimated, they should move upward. I paid very little for the shares.
Other than that I like dividend paying stocks that I think can maintain them in a tough climate. I think it puts some support under the stock price. I've been looking at all the companies which are raising cash through stock and bond offerings and wonder if they expect worse to come.
I'm getting mixed signals on the direction of the economy and don't know.
It will have to be a very, very cold winter to deplete the gas in storage this winter. I don't keep track of what weather is being forecast as I don't usually play oil and gas. My record with that, over they decades, has been horrible. Although, I have a number in mind where I will short oil.
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