Federal election 2011 predictions

[Larry Bevand]

Contest Closed!!

Now I am going to watch on TV...Bob, there is nothing to calculate...I will win :)

Chat tomorrow :)

Larry

[Christopher Mallon]

Re: Federal election 2011 predictions

Hey Larry, I'm 2 minutes late, but can I repost my earlier post so they're "in order" since you made that rule up for some reason? :p

I'm going with 144 Cons, 68 Libs, 38 BQ, 2 independant/Greens, 56 NDP.

Conservatives - 144
Liberals - 68
NDP - 56
BQ - 38
Green/Independent - 2

[Felix Dumont]

Re : Federal election 2011 predictions

I'm beginning to think that all the scores will be negative :D

[Christopher Mallon]

Re: Re : Federal election 2011 predictions

Well of all the things in the world, I can't believe that Dan McTeague didn't get re-elected. Just the most surprising thing I've heard all day.

[Hugh Brodie]

Re: Federal election 2011 predictions

How will the stock market react? As of midnight, the Canadian dollar is 3/4 of a cent stronger against the US$ since the polls closed.

[Vlad Drkulec]

Re: Federal election 2011 predictions

Conservative 157
NDP 80
Liberals 50
Bloc 20
Independent 1
Greens 0

Boy was I wrong.... That's what I get for believing in pre-election polls. I believe that the Nanos poll was within the margin of error. Ekos was a joke from beginning to end. There was another Ford effect in underestimating the Tory vote.

This was a good night for Canada and a sign that Canadians are not as stupid as the pollsters would have us believe they are.

The only disastrous aspect of this evening was that Elizabeth May has ensured that she will be in the next leader's debate in four years though she will have a lot less money to work with next time.

[Vlad Drkulec]

Re: Federal election 2011 predictions

How will the stock market react? As of midnight, the Canadian dollar is 3/4 of a cent stronger against the US$ since the polls closed.

Canadian stocks should rally for a while. Next election I will only pay attention to the polls which were relatively accurate within the margin of error.

[Vlad Drkulec]

Re: Federal election 2011 predictions

Hi Vlad:

Way toooooo high !!

Bob

No Bob,

Way too low.

My take on this is that God must love Canada.

[Vlad Drkulec]

Re: Federal election 2011 predictions

Hi Larry:

Great sidebet - I KNOWWWW I'm a winner !! I like Keith's.

8:30 PM EDT ( or was it 8:00 PM EDT?? ) - First election polls closed in Newfoundland and Labrador.

9:30 PM EDT - Ontario polls close.

Bob

Will anyone from the CBC be going to jail for breaking the election law? They started broadcasting results from Atlantic Canada at 9 pm for about five minutes. They showed that the Conservatives jumped out to a lead (14-12-8 CON-LIB-NDP) that they never relinquished. I was expecting them to lose two net seats in the Atlantic provinces. I believed that they showed a net gain of four heading into Quebec when someone realized that they had reported the results in contravention of the election laws and temporarily the CBC had "technical difficulties".

[Paul Beckwith]

Re: Federal election 2011 predictions

My opinion is that Democracy and honesty have suffered greatly tonight in Canada; the almighty dollar and ideology has won this one...I expected this result after I saw that every newspaper editorial staff in Canada with about 3 exceptions endorsed the Conservatives.

[Geordie Derraugh]

Re: Federal election 2011 predictions

My prediction:

Conservatives - 141
NDP-100
Liberals-51
Bloc-15
Greens-1

No independents. I'm in Helena Guergis's riding and I doubt she can win it. And I think the ndp surge and strategic voting may defeat André Arthur in Quebec.

Hi Victor,

I will pay for a $50 gift certificate to Strategy Games (I pay from my pocket and not Strategy Games).

So here is the criteria:

1 - You must post here before 9:30 pm Eastern Daylight Time
2 - Everyone starts with 100 points
3 - If you have the parties listed in order of seats won (top 4 parties only) you are still in the race otherwise you are eliminated. -100
4 - If you are within 3 seats of the winning number for a party you lose no points, otherwise you lose 1 point for every seat difference. (So if you say a party will get 100 seats and they get 97...you lose 0 points...if they get 96 seats...you lose 4 points)
5 - For every exact number you pick for a party (top 4 parties) you get 5 bonus points and for Green and Independent....you get 2 bonus points if you get the exact number.

I have no idea how much sense this makes as I just dreamed this up on the fly. On the otherhand, it is my $50 so I can spend it as I want :) and yes...I can win my own prize :) :)

Larry

Oh hey, I think I may have won your prize, Larry. :)

Con - 166 (141) diff 25
NDP - 103 (100) diff 3
LIB - 34 (51) diff 17
BQ - 4 (15) diff 11
GRN - 1 (1) diff 0
Ind - 0 (0) diff 0

() = my guess

100 - 25 - 0 - 17 - 11 + 2 + 2 = 51

I think I did that right...

[Bob Armstrong]

Re: Federal election 2011 predictions

Hi Vlad:

The disastrous aspect is that the hard-core far right wing Conservative factor will now expect some pay-back for sitting so quietly during the minority government years.

Bob

[Bob Armstrong]

Re: Federal election 2011 predictions

Hi Geordie:

Good luck - you did predict much better than yours truly !

Bob

[Vlad Drkulec]

Re: Federal election 2011 predictions

My opinion is that Democracy and honesty have suffered greatly tonight in Canada; the almighty dollar and ideology has won this one...I expected this result after I saw that every newspaper editorial staff in Canada with about 3 exceptions endorsed the Conservatives.

Don't you know that the universe is unfolding as it should? :)

I too am heartbroken tonight that there is a riding in Canada gullible enough to believe in that global warming scam. Overall, I expected the Conservatives to win with about 40% of the vote and they managed to win with 42%. I guess they managed to split the difference between the Nanos and Compass polls. I don't think that I will ever again take the polls seriously as I had some anxiety that Canadians might be about to make a monumental and irreversible mistake but my musings about a possible Conservative majority turned out to be prescient.

With regard to the editorial staff they have always tended to be more intelligent than the reporters who showed an obvious bias in favour of Jack Layton and Michael Ignatieff.

Cap and Trade is a dead issue. I think its cute how Elizabeth May thinks she is going to stomp her feet and bring in a new system of government. Strategic voting didn't work out for you unless you think the wipeout of the Liberal Party is a good thing.

Having the NDP instead of the Bloc to deal with is probably a good thing for the next four years anyway.

I wonder if there was an Osama effect in this election. It felt like a good omen.

[Vlad Drkulec]

Re: Federal election 2011 predictions

Hi Vlad:

The disastrous aspect is that the hard-core far right wing Conservative factor will now expect some pay-back for sitting so quietly during the minority government years.

Bob

Harper will rule from the center right. There is an opening for the natural governing party and I think he is going to apply for the job. Hopefully he learned something from Mulroney's mistakes.

I think that he will try to keep his campaign promises. The gun registry is dead. Cap and trade is done like dinner. Direct subsidies to parties will be phased out though it is not as urgent now that the Bloc is not getting as much of a subsidy. Killing that subsidy might put the final nail in the Liberal Party coffin which might not be a strategically wise decision.

When Harper rules under a majority government in much the same way that he did with a minority I think that the bogeyman of Harper's secret agenda will be finally put to rest.

I feel very optimistic about Canada's future at this moment.