Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Quebec & the Next Federal Gov't

The NDP may get some positive feelings from this recent EKOS Quebec poll re the 2015 federal election:

NDP 32.4%
Liberal 24.5%
Conservative 12.9%
Bloq 11.6%

The numbers shift a bit more in favour of the NDP among just Francophone Quebecers:

NDP 35.1%
Liberal 19.8%
Bloq 14.1%
Conservative 12.7%

So it looks like the possibility for the NDP to become the next federal government has a sound base ---they have a core holding in Quebec; they must grow in the other provinces. And I believe NDP leader, Thomas Mulcair, is doing a good job, and will soon be starting to get some credit for it from Canadian voters generally.

Bob

I would expect the NDP and Libs to be doing well in Quebec with both leaders from that province. However, as you know, the population there is not growing as fast as elsewhere so they get less new ridings in the redistribution and addition.

Also, the latest vote against the government going to war goes all the way back to the conscription crises of 1917 and 1944. The old divisions.

What will probably hurt the conservatives is door to door mail delivery. I see the union is taking the government to court on this one and that should go through the election period.

I suspect both the NDP and Liberals will campaign on restoring the service to secure the union and senior vote. Strategic voting in English Canada will likely favour the liberals.

This is the kind of thing they are up against in Winnipeg.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/loc...268561362.html

I think that area is liberal and ndp areas of the city.

The major question is if areas like the 905 will support community mail boxes.

Then there will be the strategic voting. Who will the unions endorse?

Without the mail issue I'd be pretty certain to vote for the conservatives. I like Harper a lot better than the other two leaders.

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Quebec & the Next Federal Gov't

Bob, watch the Whitby-Oshawa by-election next month. It was Jim Flaherty's riding.

The riding on south end goes to the lake. On the East end, from a map with no streets marked at the boundary it looks to stop just short of the General Motors plant. There have been a lot of changes to the boundaries over the decades but I'm certain at least parts of that riding was NDP over the years.

It's a chance to use door to door delivery as an issue in the southern part of the riding particularly the older areas of Whitby. The conservatives candidate is the Whitby Mayor so it they lose it will be a big shift. A huge upset. We saw what happened when Hudak ran on taking things away. However, the provincial conservatives held that riding.

[Bob Armstrong]

Poll Reliability: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

Poll suggests Tories and NDP currently in statistical tie: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/...d.html?cmp=rss

I know you don't believe in polls, Gary, but they do often have currency. I knew you'd want to know about this one - will stir your commitment to get that $ 20 saved up in advance!!

Bob A, NDP supporter

Paul Fairie is a political scientist at the University of Calgary, where he studies voter behaviour.

"The federal election is scheduled for a year away and every political scientist is being asked the same question: who is going to win? Other than coming up with creative ways to avoid answering the question, we instead can attempt to make some predictions by consulting two prominent psephological soothsayers: opinion polls, and the economy."

Concerning polls, after some exhaustive research, he says:

"...expecting polls to have such forecasting power [calling the winner one year before the election] is unfair, as they are taking a snapshot of what would happen if an election were held today, not a year from now. This is understandable: I have enough difficulty deciding what to have for dinner tonight. I can’t imagine picking what I might want to have a year from now. It’s not that polls aren’t good predictors of elections; it’s that they aren’t good predictors of Canadian elections a year from now."

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...ticle21161568/

Bob A

[Bob Armstrong]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

Poll suggests Tories and NDP currently in statistical tie: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/...d.html?cmp=rss

I know you don't believe in polls, Gary, but they do often have currency. I knew you'd want to know about this one - will stir your commitment to get that $ 20 saved up in advance!!

Bob A, NDP supporter

A year in politics is a long time. Things happen that dramatically alter the view of the public.

So how about this tweet from Peter Mansbridge of the National (news on the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation network) on a panel conference tonight (Sun., Nov. 16):

The National
Coming up: #CBCSundayPanel talks possible spring election. Harper leads polls for first time in months. Can Trudeau and Mulcair catch up?

Also note that Harper had implemented a "fixed date" for a Fall next election: Oct. 19, 2015.....but it is not binding from what I understand.

So do we put any faith in the poll putting the Conservative Party of Canada back in the lead?

Bob A

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

I don't know if there will be an early election and don't much care if they do that. I've already decided for which party I will vote.

There's an interesting by-election in the Whitby-Oshawa riding tomorrow.It was the riding Jim Flaherty held for many years. The last two election he received more than 50 percent of the vote and more than 25 percent more than his closest opponent.

If the conservatives lose that riding or if it's real close I'd expect some problems in the neighboring ridings. The Conservative candidate is the popular 2 term ex-mayor who decided to contest that riding rather than another term as mayor in the recent elections.

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

Bob, what did you think of the collapse of the NDP vote in the Whitby - Oshawa by-election?

At least part of that riding was NDP at one time as I recall. That in the days of Broadbent. The south end of that riding comes very close to the GM plant in Oshawa.

Keep my $20. safe. I have a better chance of winning that than Anand does of winning back his World championship.

[Bob Armstrong]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

Bob, what did you think of the collapse of the NDP vote in the Whitby - Oshawa by-election?

At least part of that riding was NDP at one time as I recall. That in the days of Broadbent. The south end of that riding comes very close to the GM plant in Oshawa.

Keep my $20. safe. I have a better chance of winning that than Anand does of winning back his World championship.

Hi Gary:

I am not concerned....my esteemed leader, Thomas Mulcair, has said that he is not concerned:D. It is not reflective of NDP strength across this great land!!

How about that!

Better get your $ 20 ready to leave home!

Bob

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

Hi Gary:

I am not concerned....my esteemed leader, Thomas Mulcair, has said that he is not concerned:D. It is not reflective of NDP strength across this great land!!

How about that!

That's strategic voting for you.

[Bob Armstrong]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

That's strategic voting for you.

Hi Gary:

My wife and I had concluded the same about Flaherty's riding and the NDP collapse...despite popular belief, a lot of committed NDP'ers are pragmatic, not ideological. Strategic voting also indicates those in the party who want a "working arrangement" at the riding level between the NDP and the Liberals......to get the CPC's out of our hair, once and for all in 2015. Strategic voting is the individual implementing a working relationship with the Liberal candidate.

Bob A

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

Hi Gary:

My wife and I had concluded the same about Flaherty's riding and the NDP collapse...despite popular belief, a lot of committed NDP'ers are pragmatic, not ideological. Strategic voting also indicates those in the party who want a "working arrangement" at the riding level between the NDP and the Liberals......to get the CPC's out of our hair, once and for all in 2015. Strategic voting is the individual implementing a working relationship with the Liberal candidate.

Bob A

Hi Bob,

I'm kind of enjoying watching the relationship between the Ontario Liberal government and the Federal Government. Wynne seems to be getting the same treatment from Ottawa she gave Ford as Mayor.

I think the PM is smart enough not to give a spendaholic more money.

I'm assuming people will vote for the government they can afford.

[Bob Armstrong]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

A Michael Cooke Tweet Today, Wed., Dec. 3/14 (@TorStarEditor)

Ipsos-Reid poll re 2015 Federal Election:

Nationally

Liberals (34%)
Tories (33%)
NDP (not given - likely 25%?)

Seems like all around bad news: can't believe Harper/CPC are rehabilitating themselves by their strutting on the international stage (while their governance within Canada is in a shambles - environment; veterans; immigration; etc.). A small bit of good news may be that the voter is taking a closer look at Trudeau's substance. NDP/Opposition leader, Tom Mulcair, in my view, continues to perform well, without getting much credit from any quarter.

Ontario

CPC/LPC: neck+neck.
NDP - way back.

Don't like to see the NDP collapsing in Ontario - how many Ontario federal seats do they hold now?

Gary: My $ 20 bill is looking nervous on top my bookshelf (beside my 2007 Scarborough Chess Club Reserves Champion trophy. :) thought I might be able to just sneak that in without anyone noticing).

Bob

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

CPC/LPC: neck+neck.
NDP - way back.

Don't like to see the NDP collapsing in Ontario - how many Ontario federal seats do they hold now?

Gary: My $ 20 bill is looking nervous on top my bookshelf (beside my 2007 Scarborough Chess Club Reserves Champion trophy. :) thought I might be able to just sneak that in without anyone noticing).

Bob

Hi Bob,

Probably that 20 dollar bill will look good beside my chess trophies, medals and certificates.

For me the main issue in the election is the mail delivery. It will decide my vote.

This riding normally votes Liberal, with the exception of two terms during the Mulroney years and the current conservative with the Harper majority. New riding boundaries next election so it's hard to know how it will go. The riding is being cut in half, pretty much, and the incumbent has chosen to contest this half. With all the Save door to door lawn signs in this area it's hard to imagine him winning.

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

Hi Bob,

There may be a couple of problems for the Liberals.

The two suspended Liberal MP's who are sitting as independents. If Trudeau doesn't take them back I'd assume they will contest the next election as independents. They could pull enough votes to win or to allow a different party to win the ridings. Probably you know Frank Magazine published the names of the complainers. You can google it.

Then there is the meeting Wynne wants with Harper. The last meeting they had Wynne seemed to reveal the details and claimed the Prime Minister smirked at one point. A smirk is a subjective observation and we can never know if we would have interpreted what happened in that manner. In any case, that last private meeting indicates a public meeting with cameras would suffice. I think the Prime Minister is doing the right thing.

Gary

[Bob Armstrong]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

Poll suggests Tories and NDP currently in statistical tie: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/...d.html?cmp=rss

I know you don't believe in polls, Gary, but they do often have currency. I knew you'd want to know about this one - will stir your commitment to get that $ 20 saved up in advance!!

Bob A, NDP supporter

Well.....looking like my bet with Gary is in big trouble. The latest Forum Research poll:

"Justin Trudeau’s Liberals are in majority government territory, according to the latest survey from Forum Research.

The Liberals now sit at 41 per cent, a five-point jump from Forum’s polling in November. The Conservatives were second, with 33 per cent of respondents saying they’d vote for Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s party.
The opposition New Democrats, led by Thomas Mulcair, are polling a distant third. Less than a fifth of respondents (17 per cent) said they would vote for the NDP, largely unchanged from November.

Forum’s poll positions have not changed since March 2013, when Trudeau took over the third-place Liberals. But over the last six months, the Conservatives have narrowed the gap."

How many believe this projection: A Liberal Majority?

Bob A

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Canada - Next Federal Gov't?

How many believe this projection: A Liberal Majority?

Bob A

Minority government isn't a ballot option so anytime someone votes for a politician there is a chance his party will form a majority.

Discontinuing door to door mail service will cost the PC's ridings. The point of no return for cancelling that program may have passed.

I'd like to vote conservative but I have to vote for door to door. I don't know how many others are in that situation.