CCC Discusses Chess - Posts of Interest -What Is The Future Of Chess?

[Vlad Drkulec]

Re: Re : Re: CCC Discusses Chess - Posts of Interest -What Is The Future Of Chess?

PS. I find quite ironic to see climate change denial posts on a topic about science. Will we also have the chance to see posts about how the world was created 3000 years ago? :)

Nobody claims the world was created 3000 years ago. I believe that they usually say it was 6000 years ago.

[Felix Dumont]

Re : Re: CCC Discusses Chess - Posts of Interest -What Is The Future Of Chess?

Ok, in these matters it seems all we can do is give opinion, and your opinion may be correct, we can't really know.

I just use Iran as one example, it could just as easily be China or any non-Western power that is hostile to Western civilization. What I'm postulating is that we are so focused right now on Iranian nuclear weapon capability, it seems no attention is being paid to any research that might be underway anywhere in the world for quantum computing, whether it's an actual computer or the quantum gates you talk about for encryption (and if that's all that's needed for encryption, is it also all that's needed for decryption of the current (non-quantum) encryption methods?).

I still see quantum computing as a double-edged sword. Just to assume that something is very unlikely is not good enough in this modern world. That was the lesson of 9/11.

Many banks and governmenta already use quantum cryptography to protect their data. We must not forget that while quantum computers aren't strong enough for now, one could intercept data (which is easy) and then simply keep it until quantum computers are able to decrypt it. The decryption would probably be 10 years late, but it could still be very useful.

PS. I find quite ironic to see climate change denial posts on a topic about science. Will we also have the chance to see posts about how the world was created 3000 years ago? :)

[Vlad Drkulec]

Re: CCC Discusses Chess - Posts of Interest -What Is The Future Of Chess?

Kevin: "Last I heard, apparently Antarctic ice was expanding." Climate change disaster might not be real, but this is certainly false, unless you're talking about October having more ice than September because, duh.

I've seen that report too. Antarctic means southern hemisphere. October will have less sea ice in that part of the world because it is mid-spring versus early spring in September.

On the whole quantum doomsday scenario there were recent rumblings out of the U.S. military where they indicated that they did not rule out military options in the event of cyberattacks. I suspect that a quantum computer won't survive a direct military attack. The net effect of the cyberwars has been that the U.S. and the rest of the west including Israel have become more aggressive in this area.

[Paul Bonham]

Re: CCC Discusses Chess - Posts of Interest -What Is The Future Of Chess?

If you could intercept the wire you could intercept encrypted data and decode it, but it won't be easy to get that data in the first place.

Ever hear of WireShark? Being used all around the world to grab data off the wire, anyone can do it.

The world economy is based on the free flow of data, despite the availability and use of tools like WireShark. Encryption is a necessary component of the functioning economy. Break encryption and you break the world economy.

Iran or China or whomever needn't worry about their Internet being throttled. I am sure they have people outside their national boundaries who will not be impeded by that.

[Paul Bonham]

Re: CCC Discusses Chess - Posts of Interest -What Is The Future Of Chess?

Kevin: "Last I heard, apparently Antarctic ice was expanding." Climate change disaster might not be real, but this is certainly false, unless you're talking about October having more ice than September because, duh.


Actually since this is an opinion thread, I merely need to give an opinion and reasons. The reality is too complex for any "proof". Here's my reasons: Remember all the doomsday scenarios back then and all the "it's nothing" counter-arguments. In the end, "it's nothing" won, and the counterfactual scenario is not known. But most systems didn't require extensive correction, certainly not power systems, and if errors did arise some electronic transfer might have halted a few days until it was corrected.



1) Working quantum computers is harder than quantum encryption because the former requires a programmable computer and the latter only quantum gates.
2) Odds of Iran getting any of this ahead of everyone is minimal.
3) If they did get it and misused it, their Internet would be throttled by whatever means necessary.
4) There are methods of security besides encryption, that can be used to inhibit bad users.
5) To log into a site, you need a password. The password can't be gotten randomly, or using quantum methods on a digital line.
6) If you could intercept the wire you could intercept encrypted data and decode it, but it won't be easy to get that data in the first place.
7) If all the above went wrong, authorities would take physical measures to limit access to the critical data. Trade would slow down, but "revert to paper value" wouldn't be the end.

Ok, in these matters it seems all we can do is give opinion, and your opinion may be correct, we can't really know.

I just use Iran as one example, it could just as easily be China or any non-Western power that is hostile to Western civilization. What I'm postulating is that we are so focused right now on Iranian nuclear weapon capability, it seems no attention is being paid to any research that might be underway anywhere in the world for quantum computing, whether it's an actual computer or the quantum gates you talk about for encryption (and if that's all that's needed for encryption, is it also all that's needed for decryption of the current (non-quantum) encryption methods?).

I still see quantum computing as a double-edged sword. Just to assume that something is very unlikely is not good enough in this modern world. That was the lesson of 9/11.

[Kevin Pacey]

Re: CCC Discusses Chess - Posts of Interest -What Is The Future Of Chess?

Alan:

Two points (without being impolite about it):

1. Here's a link re: expanding Antarctic (sea) ice:

http://www.thestar.com/news/world/ar...l-warming-over

[edit: P.S.: in the southern hemisphere, October is normally warmer than September, if anything]

2. Passwords can be obtained through espionage.

[Alan Baljeu]

Re: CCC Discusses Chess - Posts of Interest -What Is The Future Of Chess?

Kevin: "Last I heard, apparently Antarctic ice was expanding." Climate change disaster might not be real, but this is certainly false, unless you're talking about October having more ice than September because, duh.

So you are saying if nothing had been done for the Y2K problem, it "would have been a serious problem" but "would not have been a disaster". To back that up, you first of all need to define a "serious problem" versus a "disaster". And then you'd have to outline exactly what you think would have happened, backing that up with... something, I don't even know what.

Actually since this is an opinion thread, I merely need to give an opinion and reasons. The reality is too complex for any "proof". Here's my reasons: Remember all the doomsday scenarios back then and all the "it's nothing" counter-arguments. In the end, "it's nothing" won, and the counterfactual scenario is not known. But most systems didn't require extensive correction, certainly not power systems, and if errors did arise some electronic transfer might have halted a few days until it was corrected.

If the Iranians unleashed quantum decryption on the world, what kind of "havoc" do you foresee and how would the world's banks and credit card companies overcome it?

That's one possibility. But if decryption comes first, from someone who is hell-bent on destroying Western civilization, and that civilization hasn't got the technology to have quantum encoding, that's a totally different scenario that would unravel the entire world economy. All the world's fiat currencies would instantly revert to their true value (toilet paper), and actual physical resources would be the only thing left for the world to fight over.

1) Working quantum computers is harder than quantum encryption because the former requires a programmable computer and the latter only quantum gates.
2) Odds of Iran getting any of this ahead of everyone is minimal.
3) If they did get it and misused it, their Internet would be throttled by whatever means necessary.
4) There are methods of security besides encryption, that can be used to inhibit bad users.
5) To log into a site, you need a password. The password can't be gotten randomly, or using quantum methods on a digital line.
6) If you could intercept the wire you could intercept encrypted data and decode it, but it won't be easy to get that data in the first place.
7) If all the above went wrong, authorities would take physical measures to limit access to the critical data. Trade would slow down, but "revert to paper value" wouldn't be the end.

[Paul Bonham]

Re: CCC Discusses Chess - Posts of Interest -What Is The Future Of Chess?

Yes codebreaking is a key application, and yes the sudden appearance of a working Iranian quantum computer would cause havoc, but you overrate the impact just as much as Y2K was overrated. Y2K would have been a serious problem if not for proactive fixing but it would never have been a disaster. Same here.

So you are saying if nothing had been done for the Y2K problem, it "would have been a serious problem" but "would not have been a disaster". To back that up, you first of all need to define a "serious problem" versus a "disaster". And then you'd have to outline exactly what you think would have happened, backing that up with... something, I don't even know what.

If the Iranians unleashed quantum decryption on the world, what kind of "havoc" do you foresee and how would the world's banks and credit card companies overcome it?

Before generally usable quantum-based decryption is available, quantum encoding will be here, and that code isn't breakable. The important stuff will be resecured using that technology, and the world will carry on.

That's one possibility. But if decryption comes first, from someone who is hell-bent on destroying Western civilization, and that civilization hasn't got the technology to have quantum encoding, that's a totally different scenario that would unravel the entire world economy. All the world's fiat currencies would instantly revert to their true value (toilet paper), and actual physical resources would be the only thing left for the world to fight over.

[Kevin Pacey]

Re: CCC Discusses Chess - Posts of Interest -What Is The Future Of Chess?

Not really as there has been no warming in 16 years according to Paul's friends on the receiving end of those leaked emails... Maybe quantum computing will allow them to come up with climate models that actually model reality and not chicken little fantasies.

I haven't even partly checked the semi-private hell that is the Climate Change thread in months, but I pretty much gave up sitting on the fence ages ago, after Climategate. Every time warming in the Arctic is reported in the news, a reasonable-sounding *denier* explains it later on, with weather-related reasons. Last I heard, apparently Antarctic ice was expanding.

There are threats to our survival far more real, and possibly looming, than Climate change.

[Vlad Drkulec]

Re: CCC Discusses Chess - Posts of Interest -What Is The Future Of Chess?

And remember: Paul Beckwith is still out there. Even with quantum computing, we still have climate change to worry about.

Not really as there has been no warming in 16 years according to Paul's friends on the receiving end of those leaked emails... Maybe quantum computing will allow them to come up with climate models that actually model reality and not chicken little fantasies.

[Kevin Pacey]

Re: CCC Discusses Chess - Posts of Interest -What Is The Future Of Chess?

The Iranian (or some other) government could already conceivably cause havoc enough using cyber warfare/espionage, not to mention the possibility of disruption of the electrical grid or computer-based technology through an electro-magnetic pulse, or simply by unusual solar activity. Similarly, decades ago, it was later revealed, a Soviet satelite was temporarily blinded/confused by the sun, almost resulting in a missile launch but for an officer who refused to follow protocol.

[Alan Baljeu]

Re: CCC Discusses Chess - Posts of Interest -What Is The Future Of Chess?

Yes codebreaking is a key application, and yes the sudden appearance of a working Iranian quantum computer would cause havoc, but you overrate the impact just as much as Y2K was overrated. Y2K would have been a serious problem if not for proactive fixing but it would never have been a disaster. Same here.

Before generally usable quantum-based decryption is available, quantum encoding will be here, and that code isn't breakable. The important stuff will be resecured using that technology, and the world will carry on.

[Paul Bonham]

Re: CCC Discusses Chess - Posts of Interest -What Is The Future Of Chess?

Back then military necessity made even specialized research that was promising for military application (e.g. inventing a computer for codebreaking) proceed at a frantic pace, with resources lavishly poured in. In todays global economy, and with no large scale war clearly looming, it might take a while indeed for a practical quantum computer to be built.

Was it on purpose that you mention codebreaking? Because codebreaking is precisely what a quantum computer will turn into child's play.

And so if there was a race in the 1940's to achieve a nuclear bomb, there should be such a race now to achieve the first practical quantum computer. One should seriously wonder if Iranian scientists are researching this. If they are, and if the Iranians get there first, we can expect the total collapse of the Western economy as all currently private information becomes public. If on the other hand the Americans get there first, it is to be hoped they will find a way to infect with unstoppable viruses the entire Iranian software infrastructure, thereby preventing them from ever getting a working quantum computer. There could be hackers right now being trained to do this as soon as the technology is available.

This all should be the plot of the next James Bond movie. Quantum computing is the most dangerous and disruptive technology concept ever imagined. More dangerous than nuclear, because there would likely be no "mutual assured destruction" (MAD). At least with MAD, you end up with a barren planet. With quantum technology, you would only have to have someone one day ahead of everybody else and you could conceivably end up with what I can only imagine as Big Brother raised to a very large exponent.

On the other hand, what you just read could be all doom and gloom and quantum computing will actually lift us all into an age of teleportation, holodecks, immortality and instant fact-checking on people like Mitt Romney.

And remember: Paul Beckwith is still out there. Even with quantum computing, we still have climate change to worry about.

[Vlad Drkulec]

Re: Re : Re: CCC Discusses Chess - Posts of Interest -What Is The Future Of Chess?

Maybe, but don't forget that Bill Gates once said “640K ought to be enough for anybody.”

It would have been too if he didn't keep bloating up his programs. I can remember when programs would run on a single floppy drive of 360 k though with some complex programs you might have to load and swap some additional disks.

[John Coleman]

Re: Re : Re: CCC Discusses Chess - Posts of Interest -What Is The Future Of Chess?

I find it difficult to think that back in the 1940's there was no one who realized the enormous potential of computers

Maybe, but don't forget that Bill Gates once said “640K ought to be enough for anybody.”