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If I remember right the commentator was ex-Jay Zaun. He did say 10 games back was a rule of thumb, from which there had been very few exceptions.
As I said previous, my years of being a blindly loyal sports team fan ended after 40 years rooting in vain for the Leafs. Right up there with going through a divorce or various forms of personal betrayal, as far as loyalty destruction within one's makeup goes.
Last edited by Kevin Pacey; Thursday, 2nd May, 2013, 12:23 PM.
Reason: Spelling
Anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Murphy's law, by Edward A. Murphy Jr., USAF, Aerospace Engineer
If I remember right the commentator was ex-Jay Zaun. He did say 10 games back was a rule of thumb, from which there had been very few exceptions.
As I said previous, my years of being a blindly loyal sports team fan ended after 40 years rooting in vain for the Leafs. Right up there with going through a divorce or various forms of personal betrayal, as far as loyalty destruction within one's makeup goes.
Zaun is pretty awful, but so are most of the broadcast team. The only person that makes sense on TV is Dirk Hayhurst. Most of them are full of cliches pandering to the average person aka casual fans. Jays did dig themselves into a hole but I'll keep watching and see how they're doing until the All star break. 10 games back on May 2nd doesn't mean anything.
It does when you're behind the Yankees and the Red Sox... otherwise I would agree with you ;)
Jordan
I am super worried as well especially since the Yankees are supposed to be awful in the beginning - just look at their lineup, Wells, Hafner, Overbay, Nix, and others... like wow, that's a good team in 2006 but... like yeah I just don't understand how they're winning games. Red Sox has a good team but no one thought they would be this good so early.
He's right they could turn it around. I don't think it's very likely but it's mathematically possible.
The starting pitching could warm up now the weather is getting better. 2b and SS could be upgraded and left field should warm up but that's a chance the Jays took. Center field is good glove weak batting average.
I saw those two home runs Napoli hit on the highlight reel. He really crushed those balls. Anything that goes that far that fast should have a pilot.
I've noticed when players put on those Yankee pin stripes after a trade they tend to perform well. It wouldn't surprise me if Wells has one of his better season. He's on track for that. I think his best year was 33 home runs and he already has 6. He's a DH on the Yanks depth chart but I notice he's also playing some left field.
If I remember right the commentator was ex-Jay Zaun. He did say 10 games back was a rule of thumb, from which there had been very few exceptions.
As I said previous, my years of being a blindly loyal sports team fan ended after 40 years rooting in vain for the Leafs. Right up there with going through a divorce or various forms of personal betrayal, as far as loyalty destruction within one's makeup goes.
I'm not blindly ambitious with respect to the Jays, just a realist who is neither overly optimistic or overly pessimistic in short term runs. Zaun is not a good analyst to listen to, some of the tv guys its their business to drum up drama. I saw a discussion today on disappointments in baseball so far, namely the Jays, Angels, Dodgers, and Nationals. One of the analysts sarcastically said the "Jays are done time to retool". He was of course taking a jab at all the casual fans who think this start is a death sentence. Reminded me instantly of you for some reason.
They also discussed the need the augment the offence, which is my side theme. Specifically, their angle was 2B ( I'd add OF/DH depth too ). One of the main reason the Jays suck so far is Cabrera, Bonofocio, and Rasmus swinging away at bad pitches and generally hurting the offence all year. Rasmus is a defensive must, so even if he becomes a mediocre power hitter, he's ok. But the other two are at a point where they might have to be dropped from regular service. Bonofocio is a steller base stealer with zero steals (!!!); he's also redundant because they have a guy like that already, and they both are somewhat weak defensively. Cabrera so far is a major bust. No hrs, 6 rbis a sixth of the way through the season is terrible for a guy who batted second most of the season in front of some big rbi men ( that means he gets plenty of good pitches to hit ). Of course, one might be concerned his steller seasons were due to the juice, and that his downside risk is much lower then might otherwise be true.
Its a little early to give up on them, but Gibbons has a real bad habit of playing them too high in the batting order when they are slumping. How many 0/4s do these guys need to put up before Gibbons realizes they are in a slump ? Put them low in the order. I'd bat Cabrera 8th.
If the Jays can bring in one good hitter via trade and possibly drop one bad pitcher out of the rotation, they will get better overnight. Who knows if this will happen. Trades aren't always available until later and who knows if Romero can pitch this season. And to be clear, for the reasons I have listed here, chances are they won't make it, but they will get better second half ( unlike last year when they gave up ), and they are not dead yet at all.
Last edited by Duncan Smith; Thursday, 2nd May, 2013, 05:09 PM.
Jays lost numerous close games to the Yankees, which is a significant part of the reason the Yankees are outperforming their expectations this year. Shallow pitching depth might be an issue later on, beyond Rivera their bullpen is super weak. Playing Houston doesn't hurt either to maintain momentum. I'm not sold on them, if the austerity measures are real they'll fall out of contention eventually.
Red Sox are more the real deal, any team that has several starters off to great starts will be in contention. Kansas City is much improved for similar reasons but their hitting line up looks way too green to contend this season. Texas is also surprisingly good, haven't followed them closely but Darvish is undefeated I believe, so just shows you what a hot pitcher or two can do for your chances. Not sold on them either but getting off to a great start is extremely helpful to morale.
Jays 7 games back of the last AL wildcard spot now, if I'm counting right.
Last night's game was close judging by the score, but meanwhile I was busy blundering an endgame, to draw in mild time pressure against a 300 point lower rated junior. I nearly always (for decades) do my rating some damage in the three RA Summer Pickups collectively by the time the warm season is done, it seems. It could be high time to implement chess self-improvement Plan 9. :)
Returning to the Jays, believe me I do still at least remotely hope they make the post season, it's just I've seen this kind of movie too many times over the past 20 seasons. Call it faulty inductive reasoning if you like, if not realism. :(
Anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Murphy's law, by Edward A. Murphy Jr., USAF, Aerospace Engineer
I hate baseball, I'm giving it up for May, this is so frustrating... it's like watching someone defend a worse position against Carlsen and fail. This must be how Karjakin feels
I hate baseball, I'm giving it up for May, this is so frustrating... it's like watching someone defend a worse position against Carlsen and fail. This must be how Karjakin feels
They've had the bad luck of running against 5 of the best pitchers in the league ( so far ) in a row. However, this only matters because they gave away many winnable games in the past. I place a lot of blame squarely on Gibbons shoulder, he's been slow to react to problems and when he does make moves they don't seem well timed to me. This is truly why they are horrible to watch, because they are being mismanaged and repeating errors. The batting lineups lack common sense many nights. Seeing their SS bat in the 9th inning against Boston spoke directly to me that Gibbons is asleep at the wheel.
Season is genuinely over if they fail to see the urgency and make some big moves NOW. The GM's job is on the line now too, he shares some of the blame ( eg bringing in Laffey for a game and failing to address the SS issue ).For example, I'd fire Gibbons, but my guess is its his man and he won't do that ( may ultimately cost him his job though ). I'd promote Sierra and send De Rosa to Buffalo. Use Bonofocio strictly as a bench player, or demote him instead if you want him playing ball. I'd be seriously pursueing a strong 2B bat ( on base guy ) via trade. Izterus has to play regularily until this occurs. Trade might simplify things, move one of those two guys with a pitcher. Cabrera gets somewhat reduced playing time, plus bats 8th in the order, and they'll always keep one bat on the bench for late inning pinch hitting ( Cabrera, Lind, or Sierra depending on who starts ). If Cabrera begins to show real plate discipline he can earn his job again.
Pitching is somewhat fine; if they start scoring runs the pressure comes off the starters and they'll improve. Romero showed some promise.They have some veteran guys in AAA that can spot start if injuries rear up, and if the main 4 can pitch then Happ can go to long middle relief. Not sure what happened to Lincoln, but he's another guy could eat up a lot of innings.
I'm seeing a lot of empty seats at SkyDome, at some point upper management is going to ask themselves why the GM & Manager seem unwilling to make proper moves and are further alienating the fan base. I'd say if this train wreck continues unchanged until July, they'll both be fired. "ALL IN" doesn't mean trotting out Cabrera and Bonofocio every game to AGAIN go 0-4 swinging at ridiculous pitches, or replacing Reyes for months with a shortstop who is not a major league calibre player. Sierra's batting almost .400 in Buffalo. Try something.
Until they make some moves, I'm not watching them anymore. Its insane to keep doing the same thing and expect vastly better results.
Last edited by Duncan Smith; Sunday, 5th May, 2013, 12:10 AM.
The Jays season looks almost over and the Leafs are still competing. That's a bit different.
Have you looked at Price's record (the AL Cy Young winner) this season? So far his ERA is close to 7. It happens.
The Jays have a lot of new players this season and they seem to need some time to come together. Some of the regulars are hitting below or slightly above the Mendoza Line at this point. Who's the hitting coach this season? Same as last season?
The Yanks aren't a bad team. Their pitching looks solid for their top 4 starters. Hughes is looking good. Probably they need a 5th starter same as the Jays.
I'm still waiting before throwing out all but my very faintest hope for the Jays reaching the 2013 playoffs, if and until they hit 9 or more games back of the second AL wildcard spot at any point of the regular season. Looks like that might happen tonight. I stopped watching tonight's game for the time being, after the Rays went up 5-0 on the Jays.
I got lucky on the weekend, picking up $250 for clear first in the Arnprior Open. In the way I measure my luck, I got one full point's worth of lucky breaks out of two games where I was the favourite by rating (which was the case in all 5 of my games). My endgame play left much to be desired, though I think I tended to play too fast - perhaps because the playing hall this year (an arena) happened to be quite cool. The prize money will come in very handy. :)
Anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Murphy's law, by Edward A. Murphy Jr., USAF, Aerospace Engineer
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