Toronto Blue Jays!!

[Duncan Smith]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

Jays lost numerous close games to the Yankees, which is a significant part of the reason the Yankees are outperforming their expectations this year. Shallow pitching depth might be an issue later on, beyond Rivera their bullpen is super weak. Playing Houston doesn't hurt either to maintain momentum. I'm not sold on them, if the austerity measures are real they'll fall out of contention eventually.

Red Sox are more the real deal, any team that has several starters off to great starts will be in contention. Kansas City is much improved for similar reasons but their hitting line up looks way too green to contend this season. Texas is also surprisingly good, haven't followed them closely but Darvish is undefeated I believe, so just shows you what a hot pitcher or two can do for your chances. Not sold on them either but getting off to a great start is extremely helpful to morale.

[Duncan Smith]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

If I remember right the commentator was ex-Jay Zaun. He did say 10 games back was a rule of thumb, from which there had been very few exceptions.

As I said previous, my years of being a blindly loyal sports team fan ended after 40 years rooting in vain for the Leafs. Right up there with going through a divorce or various forms of personal betrayal, as far as loyalty destruction within one's makeup goes.

I'm not blindly ambitious with respect to the Jays, just a realist who is neither overly optimistic or overly pessimistic in short term runs. Zaun is not a good analyst to listen to, some of the tv guys its their business to drum up drama. I saw a discussion today on disappointments in baseball so far, namely the Jays, Angels, Dodgers, and Nationals. One of the analysts sarcastically said the "Jays are done time to retool". He was of course taking a jab at all the casual fans who think this start is a death sentence. Reminded me instantly of you for some reason.

They also discussed the need the augment the offence, which is my side theme. Specifically, their angle was 2B ( I'd add OF/DH depth too ). One of the main reason the Jays suck so far is Cabrera, Bonofocio, and Rasmus swinging away at bad pitches and generally hurting the offence all year. Rasmus is a defensive must, so even if he becomes a mediocre power hitter, he's ok. But the other two are at a point where they might have to be dropped from regular service. Bonofocio is a steller base stealer with zero steals (!!!); he's also redundant because they have a guy like that already, and they both are somewhat weak defensively. Cabrera so far is a major bust. No hrs, 6 rbis a sixth of the way through the season is terrible for a guy who batted second most of the season in front of some big rbi men ( that means he gets plenty of good pitches to hit ). Of course, one might be concerned his steller seasons were due to the juice, and that his downside risk is much lower then might otherwise be true.

Its a little early to give up on them, but Gibbons has a real bad habit of playing them too high in the batting order when they are slumping. How many 0/4s do these guys need to put up before Gibbons realizes they are in a slump ? Put them low in the order. I'd bat Cabrera 8th.

If the Jays can bring in one good hitter via trade and possibly drop one bad pitcher out of the rotation, they will get better overnight. Who knows if this will happen. Trades aren't always available until later and who knows if Romero can pitch this season. And to be clear, for the reasons I have listed here, chances are they won't make it, but they will get better second half ( unlike last year when they gave up ), and they are not dead yet at all.

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

I've noticed when players put on those Yankee pin stripes after a trade they tend to perform well. It wouldn't surprise me if Wells has one of his better season. He's on track for that. I think his best year was 33 home runs and he already has 6. He's a DH on the Yanks depth chart but I notice he's also playing some left field.

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

He's right they could turn it around. I don't think it's very likely but it's mathematically possible.

The starting pitching could warm up now the weather is getting better. 2b and SS could be upgraded and left field should warm up but that's a chance the Jays took. Center field is good glove weak batting average.

I saw those two home runs Napoli hit on the highlight reel. He really crushed those balls. Anything that goes that far that fast should have a pilot.

[Bindi Cheng]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

It does when you're behind the Yankees and the Red Sox... otherwise I would agree with you ;)

Jordan

I am super worried as well especially since the Yankees are supposed to be awful in the beginning - just look at their lineup, Wells, Hafner, Overbay, Nix, and others... like wow, that's a good team in 2006 but... like yeah I just don't understand how they're winning games. Red Sox has a good team but no one thought they would be this good so early.

[Jordan S. Berson]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

10 games back on May 2nd doesn't mean anything.

It does when you're behind the Yankees and the Red Sox... otherwise I would agree with you ;)

Jordan

[Bindi Cheng]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

If I remember right the commentator was ex-Jay Zaun. He did say 10 games back was a rule of thumb, from which there had been very few exceptions.

As I said previous, my years of being a blindly loyal sports team fan ended after 40 years rooting in vain for the Leafs. Right up there with going through a divorce or various forms of personal betrayal, as far as loyalty destruction within one's makeup goes.

Zaun is pretty awful, but so are most of the broadcast team. The only person that makes sense on TV is Dirk Hayhurst. Most of them are full of cliches pandering to the average person aka casual fans. Jays did dig themselves into a hole but I'll keep watching and see how they're doing until the All star break. 10 games back on May 2nd doesn't mean anything.

[Kevin Pacey]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

If I remember right the commentator was ex-Jay Zaun. He did say 10 games back was a rule of thumb, from which there had been very few exceptions.

As I said previous, my years of being a blindly loyal sports team fan ended after 40 years rooting in vain for the Leafs. Right up there with going through a divorce or various forms of personal betrayal, as far as loyalty destruction within one's makeup goes.

[Duncan Smith]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

Like I alluded to previously, after such a disasterous month as the first/last one, it may only be a week or so before it''s basically all over (read 9 or more games out of the second wildcard spot - though one commentator claimed the magic number for post season doom is 10 games, in the American league East division historically).

The Jays are getting slaughtered tonight (10-1 at the moment, for those who stopped watching). :(

Comebacks that occurred in the past :

1978 Yankees 14 games out on July 20th
1995 Mariners 13 games out on Aug 3

They defied your rule easily. However, one might also note we've only had one year of the two wild card system and that new rule can significantly alter the chances to make the playoffs. Not every year but it will occasionally let someone in who would have had no chance in hell under the old system. I'm unclear why anyone thinks they can quote "historical" benchmarks when there is only one year of data. And you can't "pretend extrapolate" for other years because the existance of the extra playoff spots directly affects how teams react to their situations each year.

Anyone at or above .500 baseball at the all star break had realistic playoff chances last year in both leagues. So if the Jays get to .500 at any point until then you have prematurely signed their death certificate. Of course, you wrote them off after 9 games.

If you're lucky they'll suck all year and you can pretend you were a fan but knew it all along. But what if you're wrong ? What if they stumble back to .500 at the all star break, bolster their team with one trade adding some offensive punch, and get Reyes back for August/September ? Its perhaps not the most likely outcome but its also not some horrendous outlier that you seem to think it is. Vegas supports my view, they are still only 15-1 to win the American League. Obviously they aren't quite dead yet at those odds.

[Kevin Pacey]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

Like I alluded to previously, after such a disasterous month as the first/last one, it may only be a week or so before it''s basically all over (read 9 or more games out of the second wildcard spot - though one commentator claimed the magic number for post season doom is 10 games, in the American league East division historically).

The Jays are getting slaughtered tonight (10-1 at the moment, for those who stopped watching). :(

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

Arencebia may also be well on his way to a career season. Of course, he's never had a down season, just a couple of bad months last year playing injured.

Currently : Buck 9 hr, 25 rbi, .241/.269/.575 for $6M salary
Arencebia 8 hr, 16 rbi, .253/.267/.566 for $506K salary

According to these stats, you must love Arencebia by now. What a bargain. Only stat he's behind Buck in is rbi's; however, Jays team has been so bad getting on base and Buck has been basically clean up for a bad Mets team. So rbi's are more a function of that then a real difference.

When it comes to catcher I don't rate them strictly by offense. They have to call the pitches, unless it's being done from the bench.

The outlook for the Mets wasn't as high as for the Jays this season as far as I know. Anyhow, for all intents and purposes, it's been a nice season. Short but nice. My expectations of playoffs is gone but maybe they will surprise.

[Duncan Smith]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

I read they will, or maybe have by now, do a MRI on Dickey's neck. Something about a problem which has been bothering him for the last 3 games.

Here's the players notes on him.

"Apr 28 R.A. Dickey (neck) expects to have MRI sometime this week.

Advice: Dickey is dealing with same injury he's pitched with in his last three starts. At this point the MRI is precautionary, but a stint on the disabled list can't be ruled out if more damage is found. Dickey threw seven innings and allowed three runs in a loss Sunday against the Yankees."

Toronto is a great sports town. We all understand there's always next season. :)

John Buck is on his way to a career season at the plate. He's really hitting. Of course, the Jays had to give someone decent up to get someone decent.

Price, who won the Cy Young in the American league last season, is also having his problem early this season. Worse ERA than Dickey and less wins. I guess it's hard to know.

Arencebia may also be well on his way to a career season. Of course, he's never had a down season, just a couple of bad months last year playing injured.

Currently : Buck 9 hr, 25 rbi, .241/.269/.575 for $6M salary
Arencebia 8 hr, 16 rbi, .253/.267/.566 for $506K salary

According to these stats, you must love Arencebia by now. What a bargain. Only stat he's behind Buck in is rbi's; however, Jays team has been so bad getting on base and Buck has been basically clean up for a bad Mets team. So rbi's are more a function of that then a real difference.

[Duncan Smith]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

Glad to see that Vlad is running for CFC President. :)

On the Jays again, I would have been very content before the season was underway if they just made the playoffs. Afaik, there are two wildcard spots per league as of last year (at least the Ottawa Sun newspaper seems to show two such spots per league in the daily standings), making for a total of 5 available playoff spots for the 15 teams in the American league.

Jays are leading tonight early against the Red Sox. They might be nearer a point of no return if they don't win, but if they do they might be just 5 1/2 out of a playoff spot after tonight, if certain other teams in the hunt falter. In short, perhaps this could be a pivotal game.

Baseball is never decided on regular season single games or even months. Teams do NOT trend by months or perform from season to season in a regular pattern ( unless they are a very bad team ).

Last season, everyone said Detroit had a great team after signing Prince Fielder and others. They were mediocre for many months. After the all star break, they got hot and went to the World Series. Meanwhile, the Pirates surprised everyone and dominated their division well into early August. Then, they went on a monster losing streak and faded badly for even a wild card chance.

Last season was not overly dramatic, these kind of counter trend moves mid season are far from rare ( Red Sox are famous for falling apart second half many years ).

Jays are fully capable of coming back. But will they ? I am unsure. Losing Reyes was a big problem, because they had zero depth in terms of on base type hitters. They have huge power in their line up. Gibbons has been a poor manager in my opinion so far, guys who fail to perform ( especially mental errors like swinging away against wild pitchers ) should sit next game. Several hitters have been terrible so far; especially Cabrera, Bonofocio, and Rasmus. Rasmus gets a pass for defensive reasons, but the other two aren't justifying their regular presence right now.

[Bindi Cheng]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

Lol, no politics please, there's plenty of other topics to hijack.

Yes Jays finally won tonight, I think it was a pivotal game too as I don't think they can afford to have drop any more late leads like they have been for the first month. Gibbons has to STOP sending out Aaron Loup in close late ball games. His stats appear to be fine but he has been giving up so many clutch (to the opposite team) hits and must have lost at least 3 or so games on his own. Tonight, it was a combination of errors, Loup and Delabar and if it weren't for Encarnacion heroics, they would be 9-18 instead of 10-17. Hopefully this is a sign of good things to come. I'm told by the announcers that the last time Jays had such a poor April, they rebounded with a great May, 20-8 or something like that back in 2003. Maybe they can do it again, it's been 10 years.

[Kevin Pacey]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

Glad to see that Vlad is running for CFC President. :)

On the Jays again, I would have been very content before the season was underway if they just made the playoffs. Afaik, there are two wildcard spots per league as of last year (at least the Ottawa Sun newspaper seems to show two such spots per league in the daily standings), making for a total of 5 available playoff spots for the 15 teams in the American league.

Jays are leading tonight early against the Red Sox. They might be nearer a point of no return if they don't win, but if they do they might be just 5 1/2 out of a playoff spot after tonight, if certain other teams in the hunt falter. In short, perhaps this could be a pivotal game.

Jays won tonight in the end, 9-7. Unfortunately, it looks like the NY Yankees will win too. However, other teams in the hunt for the second American league wildcard spot may lose tonight.

Here's a link explaining the two MLB wildcard spots that were actually added before last season, in case anyone (like me) was unsure:

http://spectator.org/blog/2012/03/02...ild-card-spots