Toronto Blue Jays!!

[Bindi Cheng]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

Two weeks later, and this is even sadder. If the Jays don't play like a .600 win ball club from here on out, they're finished. I'm probably one of the last ones to give up hope but I can't even bear to watch them play. Watching Sunday's game made me puke. Up 2-1, and Dickey gives up a 2-run home run to Lyle OVERBAY in the 7th inning, .............. How does this even happen? I think I lost more money betting on them the past month than I have on all the other teams out there and recently I just saw this article - http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-b...re-in-trouble/

I know they are not a 9-17 team but they pretty much have to go on a 82-54 tear to make the playoffs. I might have to start watching golf after this season.

[Duncan Smith]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

Don't get me wrong, I think the Jays almost always start a season with a fine and healthy team, it's just that they're also in a division that's exceptionally strong most years, at least it seems that way to me.

I also grant that having lots of money doesn't always go with wisdom or an all out effort to field a great sports team (I am thinking of the Leafs in particular, especially in the Ballard years - when fans show up even for a losing team night after night, why bother fielding a good team?; still, that may have finally changed, this year).

The division doesn't seen super strong this year. Tampa traded two starters ( to Kansas City ) for a prospect to save money, and haven't looked real good so far. Yankees to me don't look at all good, Red Sox are playing better then expected after a disaster last year. Orioles had a dream season last year but I highly doubt they'll repeat that success. Nobody looks super good, the Jays I think could have been superb but losing Reyes and Lawrie set them back.

Toronto's pitching is coming around nicely, and the bullpen looks very good ( remember, last year they blew around 6 games in April in the 9th inning ). Most of the moves they made this year center around that starting staff, a vast improvement on what they had last year. Last year by mid-May they basically had no starting staff, now they have 4 previous Cy Young level pitchers off to slow starts in April. Easy to see which situation has more potential.

On that basis alone I still pick Toronto for first with a fairly modest win total required to do so. Boston has a strong bullpen, a decent start, and money to burn if they contend, so maybe they are close.

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

Stats would suggest Dickey and Buehrle will ride the ups and downs but have a decent season when its all over. Johnson and Morrow have had injuries in the past and pitch like Cy Young at other times. So who knows what they will do. Morrow may be the best of the bunch if he stays healthy.

When the weather warms up the older players should also warm up. I hate to see a veteran steal bases in the cool April air.

Maybe Romero will come around in the minors.

It was nice to see Mark Reynolds hitting so early this season. He had a brutal season last year.

[Kevin Pacey]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

Don't get me wrong, I think the Jays almost always start a season with a fine and healthy team, it's just that they're also in a division that's exceptionally strong most years, at least it seems that way to me.

I also grant that having lots of money doesn't always go with wisdom or an all out effort to field a great sports team (I am thinking of the Leafs in particular, especially in the Ballard years - when fans show up even for a losing team night after night, why bother fielding a good team?; still, that may have finally changed, this year).

[Duncan Smith]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

Comparing the Jays with another team is tossing in stuff which makes no difference. Also, I doubt anyone is saying they are already a hopeless case this season as yet.

Let's look at the starters and their ERA at this point of the season. They have been throught the starting rotation twice.

Dickey 8.44 (almost a run per inning he's pitched)
Buehrle 10.24
Johnson 11.05
Morrow 5.59
Happ 3.50 (approx. after tonights game.)

Happ has a good and not so good game, although he won both his games. He's the only starter with a win so far.

Of course, things could turn around tomorrow....

BTW, Reyes, the SS, hurt himself tonight.

Happ is a great fifth starter, most teams fifth starters are mediocre at best, or a revolving door of guys not really major league ready. The other guys should get much better, but always a chance 1 or 2 of them have a terrible year or get injured.

Stats would suggest Dickey and Buehrle will ride the ups and downs but have a decent season when its all over. Johnson and Morrow have had injuries in the past and pitch like Cy Young at other times. So who knows what they will do. Morrow may be the best of the bunch if he stays healthy.

ps Just watched the game, Happ looked pretty good even though he gave up 4 runs. Losing Reyes hurts, the guy was well on his way to a huge year. The fact they are starting to hit against KC ( a strong pitching team ) is a good sign. Infield is an issue now they are too thin.

[Duncan Smith]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

True, but the Blue Jays back in the 1980s and early 1990s were one of the biggest payroll teams and brought in players themselves. The whole idea this year was they were going back to that model somewhat now because to not do so might further alienate their fan base which grew last year but put up with a deeply disappointing season.
Injuries played a part but so did their reluctance over 10-15 years to bring in reinforcements midseason ( they have been terrible at this, going with rank rookies
and mediocre bench players instead ). The injuries last season were so severe though I don't blame them for giving up on that one season.

Total payroll numbers are a little misleading because NYY spent a lot on long term contracts years ago. Blue Jays are in year one of a stated 5-6 year plan with a goal of making the playoffs three times in that span. If they stick with it, I expect they'll fill any hole due to injuries or nonperformance. Pitching they may have the guys in minors coming off rehabs ready to go in the summer; hitting they'd have to buy someone from a faltering team.

Jays are not a poor team. Owner has tons of money and the stadium isn't anywhere near full but Toronto has always filled the stadium for a winner.

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

Comparing the Jays with another team is tossing in stuff which makes no difference. Also, I doubt anyone is saying they are already a hopeless case this season as yet.

Let's look at the starters and their ERA at this point of the season. They have been throught the starting rotation twice.

Dickey 8.44 (almost a run per inning he's pitched)
Buehrle 10.24
Johnson 11.05
Morrow 5.59
Happ 3.50 (approx. after tonights game.)

Happ has a good and not so good game, although he won both his games. He's the only starter with a win so far.

Of course, things could turn around tomorrow....

BTW, Reyes, the SS, hurt himself tonight.

[Kevin Pacey]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

Fwiw, I suspect the Yankees or Red Sox, if they start losing too much as a given season progresses, will simply go out and trade/pay for the best talent they think they need. Seems like that's what they would have done in previous years as necessary, though I haven't researched that. Just seems like common sense, without research needed.

[Kevin Pacey]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

An observation that might have some interest: I briefly worked in an ashphalt and soil testing lab in Bramalea back in the late 1980s. At one point we tested some of the concrete being used for the Jays playing field at the time, I recall.

Like I wrote much earlier in the thread, I wonder if there is something a little wrong with the Skydome turf that might contribute to the Jays unusual number of injuries in recent seasons (see an earlier post of mine in this thread for links to reports of Jays injuries in recent years).

[Duncan Smith]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

By nine games out of contention I meant out of a playoff spot (e.g. 9 games back in the standings of the team currently holding down the wildcard spot). I thought that'd be clear from my post.

I trust Boston & NYY scouting more than the Jays on the perhaps blind/wild logic that besides being better able to afford top salary talent, the Red Sox & NYY also can afford the best scouts & other staff. Don't actually know what these teams proportionally pay their non-player staff (compared to the Blue Jays, say) as opposed to just their players.

Tampa Bay, I agree, is also a tough team to overtake. It's well known the Jays are also unfortunate to be in a tough division.

Yankees are actually known for bad decisions on veteran talent, but get away with it some years by spending boat loads of money. However, when your team gets old and drops back you can quickly become an unattractive spot for strong players to relocate too.

Yankees picked up Wells and Overbay to ensure they were at least somewhat competitive on the field. Sounds like the Jays teams from 4-5 years ago, but Wells was horrendously bad last year and Overbay barely makes the majors now.

[Kevin Pacey]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

Guilty as charged Duncan. I am a bandwagon type fan nowadays, after being a blindly loyal Leafs fan for 40 years.

I still hope forlornly for the Jays, as they are the only Canadian team. Might have switched to the Expos, if only Montreal still had that team. :(

[Kevin Pacey]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

By nine games out of contention I meant out of a playoff spot (e.g. 9 games back in the standings of the team currently holding down the wildcard spot). I thought that'd be clear from my post.

I trust Boston & NYY scouting more than the Jays on the perhaps blind/wild logic that besides being better able to afford top salary talent, the Red Sox & NYY also can afford the best scouts & other staff. Don't actually know what these teams proportionally pay their non-player staff (compared to the Blue Jays, say) as opposed to just their players.

Tampa Bay, I agree, is also a tough team to overtake. It's well known the Jays are also unfortunate to be in a tough division.

[Duncan Smith]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

I know don't know much about baseball when it comes to details (I care more about results). However I do know some of the big trends that I've mentioned. Toronto's injuries are nothing so far compared to the genuine injury bug they've experienced in recent years. They are off to a bad start, but they are not like Boston & NYY in their capability to come back from such, the recent years' trends seem to indicate. I trust Boston & NYY scouting & talent assessment more than, say, the Jays' (or any fans' opinion).

I've observed that when a team falls 9 or more games out of contention for a playoff spot, they seldom come back, whatever point in the season that happens to be. So far the Jays are close to exceeding their normal pace of dropping 3 or less points out of contention each month as the season goes on, at least for many years now.

Most of your observations here are actually totally off base. This is obviously because you focus on short term results and fail to do your research. Such superficial analysis is never good.

I see the newspaper chat lines are packed with "pretend" baseball fans throwing in the towel on the Jays already. What does Vegas think ? Well, with reduced interest in them the line has gone from roughly 8-1 to 15-1. 15-1 is still fairly low odds to win it all. So there is obviously some smart money not totally convinced their chances have gone. Futures are usually a bad bet in baseball but if someone offered 25-1 I'd take it.

Please, please don't get on here months ( weeks ? ) from now saying you now believe in them. You've totally written them off, trashed their scouting department ( I thought their 2012 farm system was praised by many analysts ), and severely overrated the Yankees team this year.
Bandwagon's officially closed to you get some Yankees gear we don't need you.

[Bindi Cheng]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

I know don't know much about baseball when it comes to details (I care more about results). However I do know some of the big trends that I've mentioned. Toronto's injuries are nothing so far compared to the genuine injury bug they've experienced in recent years. They are off to a bad start, but they are not like Boston & NYY in their capability to come back from such, the recent years' trends seem to indicate. I trust Boston & NYY scouting & talent assessment more than, say, the Jays' (or any fans' opinion).

I've observed that when a team falls 9 or more games out of contention for a playoff spot, they seldom come back, whatever point in the season that happens to be. So far the Jays are close to exceeding their normal pace of dropping 3 or less points out of contention each month as the season goes on, at least for many years now.

Kevin, you sound like a casual fan with your observations. What Gary has said is completely true, it's only been 9 games and Lawrie has missed all of those games with his great infield defense. Their pitching staff has so far been ineffective but again, the season's just started. If it's August and they're still 3 games under 500 then there's a problem. What makes you think Boston and New York's scouting and talent assessment is better than the Jays? Have you seen the top 20 prospect lists of recent years? Jays were top 5 last year (#1 on certain lists like John Sickel's list) before the massive trade in which they traded away almost all their prospects for major leaguers. Boston and Yankees on the other hand were never in the top 5 and are usually in the teens.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/...ystem-rankings for your reference

While Boston and New York have shown a capability to come back in the past, have you seen their roster for this year? Yankees lost Jeter, R-rod, Texeira, Granderson and Pineda so far in 2013. Jeter of course will be back soon but the rest will take a couple months before showing up. Good luck having a major league team that earns less than those on the DL. Boston got lucky and traded away Crawford, Beckett and A-gon to Dodgers and were able to shed a ton of payroll. What did they do with that payroll? Sign a bunch of medium level free agents who are 30+ years old of course. They're playing year by year and there's no guarantee any of them will be able to perform their career averages. They're a year older after all. In terms of talent, Jays are a much better team than both Boston and Yankees this year. The team most comparable to the Jays is actually Tampa and they're not off to such a hot start either.

Remember, it's only April, if 9 games are your definition of a season, you should watch American football instead.

[Kevin Pacey]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

I don't know much about baseball when it comes to details (I care more about results). However I do know some of the big trends that I've mentioned. Toronto's injuries are nothing so far compared to the genuine injury bug they've experienced in recent years. They are off to a bad start, but they are not like Boston & NYY in their capability to come back from such, the recent years' trends seem to indicate. I trust Boston & NYY scouting & talent assessment more than, say, the Jays' (or any fans' opinion).

I've observed that when a team falls 9 or more games out of contention for a playoff spot, they seldom come back, whatever point in the season that happens to be. So far the Jays are close to exceeding their normal pace of dropping 3 or less points out of contention each month as the season goes on, at least for many years now.