Toronto Blue Jays!!

[Bindi Cheng]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

Seems to be useless arguing with you Duncan. I've tried pointing out facts from baseball sites, articles from professional writers with deep baseball knowledge (who are not the typical Toronto sport writer) and given quantitative and qualitative evidence of my points but sigh... some people just don't get it.

[Duncan Smith]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

Actually, a lot of sports reporters are simply trying to entertain and often know no more ( and sometimes less ) then avid fans. The internet has spawned a lot of bad information mixed in with the good. What I see is you first praising the Blue Jays GM for making one trade then criticizing him deeply on the next trade. Surely on the job he's got his scouts and inside people advising him on both moves.

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

Did you draft a decent fantasy hockey team this season? Is it still at least tied for first place?

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

You are way off base its reported that Buck was thrown into the trade to save the $6 million salary. Buck is an "established" catcher. But so is Arencebia now. And the vote of confidance is clear they cleared out their next best two catchers on the depth chart and brought in a guy who specializes in catching the knuckeballer as a back up.

Hmmmm. I thought they traded for the catcher because Dickey wanted him and it make signing Dickey easier. Kind of why they refer to him as Dickey's personal catcher.

[Bindi Cheng]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

Slamming the trade and saying it's worth it if they make the playoffs the next couple years are not mutually exclusive. Look at the Royals trade for James Shield recently. That trade is widely panned as one of the worst in recent times. Yet, I'm sure if they somehow leap ahead of Detroit and make the playoffs next year because of superb pitching from Shields and Davis, they will be content.

I can understand you may have more experience playing fantasy drafts and seeing the development of younger players than I have but what my argument is based on numbers and general consensus from the sabremetrics community and not just casual fan talk. Did I say I wanted to steal Dickey for Arencibia straight up? Because that's what most of the casual fans wanted from day 1. I realized that's not realistic and I was hoping that Gose + Arencibia would do it. The Blue Jays front office obviously thought the same as they offered that package as well but was turned down rightfully by the Mets.

Being a fan is more than just hopping on the bandwagon when a team is winning and jumping off when a team is losing. I actually want them to make smart baseball moves that will give them a chance of winning games over the long run. I quoted articles and stats to back up my reasoning and all you're giving me is anecdotal stories and emotional feel. That doesn't seem to be very fair.

Look, if you took a look at the articles from reporters and bloggers, you will see clearly that when D'Arnaud and Syndergaard were offered, everyone on the Mets panned the deal while everyone on the Jays were shocked they dealt so much. After the trade was announced, the mets were still extremely happy with the package they got back and most Jays fans kind of said "Screw it, they got Dickey, w/e let's go win a world series" and started hating on the prospects i.e. Syndergaard is young and far far away, D'arnaud has injury problems, knee problems, never played a full season, strikes out a lot. You can't just love your prospects and then hate them when they're traded away, that's not objective at all. It's a widely known fact that the Jays overpaid for Dickey and while objective newscasters didn't hate it as much as the Royals as the Jays are closer to contention than them, I was still hoping we would get more.

If you need proof on reporters and blogs, check out twitter updates as it was going on, Richard Griffin himself mentioned that they should be getting someone back for the two blue chippers. Additionally, check out mlbtraderumors.com as the trade was happening or
bluebirdbanter.com for jays bloggers or
amazinavenue.com for mets bloggers.

Furthermore, Buck is a throw-in, he's basically a future JP Arencibia, has power, strikes out a lot, poor defence and his salary was used to offset Dickey and Thole's costs. In other words, he's useless at this point in his career. Just check his last two years of production. If you don't believe me, maybe you'll believe AA:
http://www.sportsnet.ca/590/2012/12/17/anthopoulos_pts/

Oh yeah, before you start hating me again for thinking Arencibia is awful, please listen to this:
http://www.sportsnet.ca/590/2012/12/..._and_jim_lang/

Remember, my sources are all individuals covering baseball for a living or as an extreme passion. I'm sure they know more than you or I.

[Duncan Smith]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

You are way off base its reported that Buck was thrown into the trade to save the $6 million salary. Buck is an "established" catcher. But so is Arencebia now. And the vote of confidance is clear they cleared out their next best two catchers on the depth chart and brought in a guy who specializes in catching the knuckeballer as a back up.

[Duncan Smith]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

You can't slam the trade and then say it will be worth it if they make the playoffs.
What if they make the playoffs 3 of the 4 next seasons but D'Arnaud becomes a star on a losing team ?

Look, I've followed baseball for decades and was extensively involved in a rotisserie league at one point. We drafted the entire league plus a reserve roster the last two years. My 40th pick our last draft was M. Rivera, at the time a fireballing minor leaguer rumoured to be a strong prospect by Baseball America etc etc. During that time I really got a feel for how teams are composed, how players arrive and progress, and how rare it is to get any offence from certain positions.

You are speaking in idealistic terms about trying to steal a guy like Dickey for almost nothing. There is always a price, numerous teams wanted him and the Jays either exceeded that market or didn't get him. If we were to ask who is more likely to win a World Series ring now, Arencebia or D'Arnaud, I like Arencebia to win one. D'Arnaud could end up being almost any level, much like Lawrie ( who went for Marcum who helped get the Brewers into the playoffs ). You can project all you want you really don't know, nobody does.

Dickey is coming off one of the best seasons in recent history. He doesn't have to match to be extremely valuable to the team. He's older yes but his pay rate is less then half the rate his peers like Grienke make now. I suspect they know Johnson will take a monster contract to extend and he's injury prone. So you go with Dickey/Buehrle as your inning eaters for 3 years, hoping their arms hold up and that Bautista remains decent for that time slot. If Morrow stays healthy even better he's probably better then any of them. And you know why this plan is great ? The Jays lost in 2012 because their pitchers got hurt a ton. Now they have durable guys in place and any of their injured guys coming back ( most will not be effective/available until late 2013 ) its a bonus.

If a leak springs in the plan during next season they should have excess pitching and can trade for an upgrade on offence. Its easy to forget how desperate teams get for reliable pitching most years; this is why teams like the Jays have many times signed aging/injured veterans just hoping to win the lottery and get a comeback story. As the cliche goes, you can never have too much pitching. Some might argue the Jays have too much pitching, if its true they'll play that chip later.

Jays main risk now is on offence. If Bautista's injury is chronic, Encarnacion is a one season wonder, and guys like Rasmus/Lawrie/Arencebia trend badly ( yes, I agree this is possible except I like Lawrie a lot ), they'll need an upgrade. And for the next two seasons D'Arnaud no matter how good he eventually gets isn't the kind of impact player now that will make a difference in that regard. They'll need a 90 rbi guy for the middle of their order. The kind of guy you can only get by trading a strong pitcher or overpaying a free agent in the off season.

[Bindi Cheng]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

I have to think the Jays will deal for an established catcher.

Dickey comes with his personal catcher. Not every catcher can handle a knuckler. Maybe the guy is decent all around but he`s low paid and I don`t think he`s much of a hitter.

Thole's pretty decent actually. He's the perfect platoon partner for Arencibia. He pretty much does everything that Arencibia can't do, which means he has no power, but he takes walks, makes contact, has high on base percentage. But... his defensive skills are kind of below average too, meh... dunno what's gonna happen

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

Especially since mistakes are fewer and farther between in the playoffs, if we get there.

I have to think the Jays will deal for an established catcher.

Dickey comes with his personal catcher. Not every catcher can handle a knuckler. Maybe the guy is decent all around but he`s low paid and I don`t think he`s much of a hitter.

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

Do you recall who was catching the games and calling the pitches when our pitchers blew out their arms last season? I can't recall for sure.

[Christopher Mallon]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

There's more to baseball than just crushing mistakes for homers.

Especially since mistakes are fewer and farther between in the playoffs, if we get there.

[Bindi Cheng]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

We'll have to see how he pitches under the dome. If his knuckler breaks the same.

Have to hope he doesn't choke like some of the curlers. :)

Romero is part of the projected rotation and he had an awful season last year.

Just based on regression, Romero has to get better. I mean.. he should have been shipped to Triple A last year but their entire pitching staff went down with injuries so he had to eat up innings. I've heard stats thrown around that Dickey has a 1.50 era in closed stadiums. It'd be a treat to finally destroy Tampa... we always get owned by them every year.

[Bindi Cheng]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

Please, very few catchers in baseball have the offensive production that Arencebia has had in his first two full years in MLB.

You seen convinced D'Arnaud will be significantly better then Arencebia. We will see won't we. I would be more concerned that the young pitcher they traded turns into a huge star, because its usually those guys who can make prospects for veterans trades look somewhat bad long term. Or they don't make it after blowing out their arm. Such is the nature of baseball trades.

I don't know how much baseball knowledge you have, but any modern sabremetrics would see Arencibia's numbers and puke. Here's the link - http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...rencjp01.shtml

You can clearly see that he has a lifetime bb:k ratio of 1:5. That is really bad. It means he doesn't take a walk and he swings at everything. He hits homers but that's ALL he does. He can kill mistakes but he can't do anything else. His lifetime ops+ is 88. 100 is the average but since he plays a premium position (catcher) he might be around league average in that category.

Here's a quote from a Grantland article by Jonah Keri

"J.P. Arencibia is, at this point in his career, a highly flawed baseball player. He's got impressive power, having cranked 43 homers in his first 242 games in the big leagues. It gets ugly after that. He's a career .222 hitter with a .275 on-base percentage. He strikes out more than four times as often as he walks. He's ranked in the top three in passed balls over the past two seasons, and allowed 53 stolen bases in 2012, despite starting only 91 games. There's a lot of Miguel Olivo in his game, which is a good thing. Arencibia turns 27 next month, so it's possible he'll improve as he matures. Still, assuming this trade goes through, d'Arnaud's gone, and Arencibia remains Toronto's no. 1 catcher for the present and the foreseeable future. This is not an ideal outcome. If we're going to ding the Royals in the James Shields trade because Wil Myers's departure means we see a lot more of Jeff Francoeur, we should do the same with the Jays for giving up a catcher with a chance to be better than the incumbent for 2013, and an excellent chance to trump him beyond next season."

For the entire article - http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-tr...-the-hot-stove

The young pitcher is much further away than D'arnaud. His ETA is most likely 2015 and if everything breaks right - i.e. he develops a secondary pitch, he can have a average to plus curveball, he'll be a solid #2 starter. D'arnaud is much closer to ML ready and yes, he will almost certainly be just as good if not better than Arencibia in 2013 alone just based on his defensive stats. There's more to baseball than just crushing mistakes for homers.

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

PLAYOFFS!!!

We'll have to see how he pitches under the dome. If his knuckler breaks the same.

Have to hope he doesn't choke like some of the curlers. :)

Romero is part of the projected rotation and he had an awful season last year.

[Duncan Smith]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

Please, very few catchers in baseball have the offensive production that Arencebia has had in his first two full years in MLB.

You seen convinced D'Arnaud will be significantly better then Arencebia. We will see won't we. I would be more concerned that the young pitcher they traded turns into a huge star, because its usually those guys who can make prospects for veterans trades look somewhat bad long term. Or they don't make it after blowing out their arm. Such is the nature of baseball trades.