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The Jays seem to be trying for a winning team this season so they probably want a veteran catcher with a proven record for handling the pitchers and calling a game. Offhand, I can't think of a catcher the Jays have brought up from their farm system who'd become their number 1 catcher. There must have been some but I can't think of them.
I've actually heard that argument before as well and while I don't know the specifics, I've also heard that AA said he won't go after Marcum this offseason. I would have liked them to get Marcum or Edwin Jackson instead but I guess he has doubts of his durability since he has a history of injury problems. D'arnaud is no sure thing but yes, reports do say he's likely to have above-average defence and above-average offence as a catcher and he will most likely have a number of all-star campaigns. The knock against D'Arnaud is that he was injured last year and he is going to be 24 soon. He's probably not going to be a Buster Posey or Joe Mauer but he'll probably be like a Yadier Molina.
I've actually heard that argument before as well and while I don't know the specifics, I've also heard that AA said he won't go after Marcum this offseason. I would have liked them to get Marcum or Edwin Jackson instead but I guess he has doubts of his durability since he has a history of injury problems. D'arnaud is no sure thing but yes, reports do say he's likely to have above-average defence and above-average offence as a catcher and he will most likely have a number of all-star campaigns. The knock against D'Arnaud is that he was injured last year and he is going to be 24 soon. He's probably not going to be a Buster Posey or Joe Mauer but he'll probably be like a Yadier Molina.
These are the kind of trades that win teams World Series. Sure its possibly an "overpay" but there is a shortage of quality pitchers in baseball and Dickey has been very good for three years with no discernable injuries. A knuckleballer tends to last to an older age and adds a nice contrast to the fireballers on the team.
The only part of the trade I don't like is losing Buck but I guess the idea is the backup needs to be the knuckleballers guy.
D'Arnaud is a prospect not an established player, and you can't really break in a rookie catcher with a veteran pitching team signed to win now. Arencebia ( who Ruben seems unaware of ) is a pretty darn good catcher,
its a logjam there so the Jays dealt from strength. Arencebia was the big minor league star a few years ago and D'Arnaud is coming off an injury.
I think Arencebia still has not defined his top end potential and he's already "broken in" as a major league catcher.
I guess we'll see in a few years what the upside was for Arencebia, D"Arnaud, and Gose. Funny things can happen. Jays have shied away from these kind of moves for decades and watched as other teams win with the players they traded away for prospects. If these moves set the tone for Toronto being one of the places to be for 5-6 years, it will pay off in ways beyond the specifics of this one trade.
Last edited by Duncan Smith; Monday, 17th December, 2012, 03:17 AM.
The Jays seem to be trying for a winning team this season so they probably want a veteran catcher with a proven record for handling the pitchers and calling a game. Offhand, I can't think of a catcher the Jays have brought up from their farm system who'd become their number 1 catcher. There must have been some but I can't think of them.
Jays actually have developed several catchers, with Arencebia being the
latest. Very few catchers hit 20+ home runs consistantly and play decent defense. Arencebia was a huge star in Triple A before he got promoted.
I think the Dickey trade gives him a vote of confidance.
These are the kind of trades that win teams World Series. Sure its possibly an "overpay" but there is a shortage of quality pitchers in baseball and Dickey has been very good for three years with no discernable injuries. A knuckleballer tends to last to an older age and adds a nice contrast to the fireballers on the team.
The only part of the trade I don't like is losing Buck but I guess the idea is the backup needs to be the knuckleballers guy.
D'Arnaud is a prospect not an established player, and you can't really break in a rookie catcher with a veteran pitching team signed to win now. Arencebia ( who Ruben seems unaware of ) is a pretty darn good catcher,
its a logjam there so the Jays dealt from strength. Arencebia was the big minor league star a few years ago and D'Arnaud is coming off an injury.
I think Arencebia still has not defined his top end potential and he's already "broken in" as a major league catcher.
I guess we'll see in a few years what the upside was for Arencebia, D"Arnaud, and Gose. Funny things can happen. Jays have shied away from these kind of moves for decades and watched as other teams win with the players they traded away for prospects. If these moves set the tone for Toronto being one of the places to be for 5-6 years, it will pay off in ways beyond the specifics of this one trade.
The thing is... Arencibia just isn't that good. I know everyone loves seeing 20 homers from a catcher but he has a career 275 opb with slightly below average defense and a tendency to strike out a TON. Before 2012, he was one of the worst defensive catchers in the league so he actually took a step forward since then. He was a AAA star but that was in the PCL league, an extremely hitter friendly environment - think Coors field in Colorado, and he did it in his 2nd year. His first year at PCL had a triple slash line of something like 230/330/440, the major league equivalent of Jeff Mathis (check his career MLB stats). D'Arnaud's first year at PCL in a injury-shortened season had him hitting like 330/380/570. He essentially matched Arencibia's 2nd year at the PCL environment while being 2 years younger at the time and having superior defensive ability.
Catchers with 20 homers do not grow on trees but if they cant get on base, they're not that useful in the grand scheme of things. The Jays are not that strong in catching as essentially their next prospect after Arencibia is Jiminez all the way down in Single A (I believe) That means it will take probably 3 years before we get anyone other than Arencibia. Yeah... I'm not impressed with the deal as I'm hoping AA doesn't sign the contract. Plus, I'm sure he was upset with all the leaks in the trade, I know I would be if something that important to me was chronicled step by step.
Jays actually have developed several catchers, with Arencebia being the
latest. Very few catchers hit 20+ home runs consistantly and play decent defense. Arencebia was a huge star in Triple A before he got promoted.
I think the Dickey trade gives him a vote of confidance.
I forgot about him. Next season will be his 4th. That's "IF" the Jays don't bring in a veteran catcher to handle their new staff. Multi million dollar pitching staff and a catcher who made around or under $500K last season.
It's like in the movies, Smith. When the manager looks at the player and tells him to dig down deep and give him more, that player can tell the manager if he wants more to pay more.
Also, Dickey comes with his personal catcher. How's that a vote of confidence for Arencibia?
Last edited by Gary Ruben; Monday, 17th December, 2012, 02:31 PM.
Hmm so I guess it's official, looks like we have a guaranteed playoff team, 90-95 wins on paper. Even though I don't like the fact that we overpaid, it'll be worth it if we can get into the post season for the first time in 20 years.
Please, very few catchers in baseball have the offensive production that Arencebia has had in his first two full years in MLB.
You seen convinced D'Arnaud will be significantly better then Arencebia. We will see won't we. I would be more concerned that the young pitcher they traded turns into a huge star, because its usually those guys who can make prospects for veterans trades look somewhat bad long term. Or they don't make it after blowing out their arm. Such is the nature of baseball trades.
Please, very few catchers in baseball have the offensive production that Arencebia has had in his first two full years in MLB.
You seen convinced D'Arnaud will be significantly better then Arencebia. We will see won't we. I would be more concerned that the young pitcher they traded turns into a huge star, because its usually those guys who can make prospects for veterans trades look somewhat bad long term. Or they don't make it after blowing out their arm. Such is the nature of baseball trades.
You can clearly see that he has a lifetime bb:k ratio of 1:5. That is really bad. It means he doesn't take a walk and he swings at everything. He hits homers but that's ALL he does. He can kill mistakes but he can't do anything else. His lifetime ops+ is 88. 100 is the average but since he plays a premium position (catcher) he might be around league average in that category.
Here's a quote from a Grantland article by Jonah Keri
"J.P. Arencibia is, at this point in his career, a highly flawed baseball player. He's got impressive power, having cranked 43 homers in his first 242 games in the big leagues. It gets ugly after that. He's a career .222 hitter with a .275 on-base percentage. He strikes out more than four times as often as he walks. He's ranked in the top three in passed balls over the past two seasons, and allowed 53 stolen bases in 2012, despite starting only 91 games. There's a lot of Miguel Olivo in his game, which is a good thing. Arencibia turns 27 next month, so it's possible he'll improve as he matures. Still, assuming this trade goes through, d'Arnaud's gone, and Arencibia remains Toronto's no. 1 catcher for the present and the foreseeable future. This is not an ideal outcome. If we're going to ding the Royals in the James Shields trade because Wil Myers's departure means we see a lot more of Jeff Francoeur, we should do the same with the Jays for giving up a catcher with a chance to be better than the incumbent for 2013, and an excellent chance to trump him beyond next season."
The young pitcher is much further away than D'arnaud. His ETA is most likely 2015 and if everything breaks right - i.e. he develops a secondary pitch, he can have a average to plus curveball, he'll be a solid #2 starter. D'arnaud is much closer to ML ready and yes, he will almost certainly be just as good if not better than Arencibia in 2013 alone just based on his defensive stats. There's more to baseball than just crushing mistakes for homers.
We'll have to see how he pitches under the dome. If his knuckler breaks the same.
Have to hope he doesn't choke like some of the curlers. :)
Romero is part of the projected rotation and he had an awful season last year.
Just based on regression, Romero has to get better. I mean.. he should have been shipped to Triple A last year but their entire pitching staff went down with injuries so he had to eat up innings. I've heard stats thrown around that Dickey has a 1.50 era in closed stadiums. It'd be a treat to finally destroy Tampa... we always get owned by them every year.
Especially since mistakes are fewer and farther between in the playoffs, if we get there.
I have to think the Jays will deal for an established catcher.
Dickey comes with his personal catcher. Not every catcher can handle a knuckler. Maybe the guy is decent all around but he`s low paid and I don`t think he`s much of a hitter.
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