Toronto Blue Jays!!

[Duncan Smith]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

My guess is 96 wins, which would be one of the better "turn around" seasons in recent time. I'm not sure why you are worried about the bullpen they've been stacking up depth there since the allstar game last year. Much more risk if their big power hitters have bad seasons.

Yes, I'm very optimistic, but this kind of talent infusion is very rare. I think even if they get huge bad luck they win 86 games.

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

The Blue Jays have never won 100 games.

For that they will need the bullpen to be very good and the closer to near perfect.

There's a difference between having a bunch of good players and having a good team.

[Duncan Smith]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

TBJ are 8-1 odds to win WS according to Vegas odds,lowest currently.But,we all know one factor that can change outcomes-INJURIES! Be safe.....

The futures at this point aren't a good deal anymore, I liked over 88 wins when that was the number. Jays can weather several injuries now, only area lacking depth is big rbi man, so Bautista going down would be material. However, I'd note this pitching staff doesn't need a ton of run support to win.

Nevertheless, if things break well they could win 100 games, even in a tougher American League this season. Potential large upside from Lawrie, Reyes, Morrow. Anything Carbrera, Bonofocio, Lind (?) kick in is a bonus to last years weak bench and left field.

[John Henry]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

TBJ are 8-1 odds to win WS according to Vegas odds,lowest currently.But,we all know one factor that can change outcomes-INJURIES! Be safe.....

[Duncan Smith]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

I hadn't looked at Hechavarria's stats at all; I'll give you that point. Better I note H. Alvarez is not a bad gamble for a team making a complete rebuild.

[Bindi Cheng]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

Bindi, we are in the presence of a baseball maven. He's obviously smarter than a bag of fleas when it comes to statistics. :)

Hehe, well I guess everyone has their own opinions on how smart they are. I shouldn't be too surprised.

You're right about Jack Morris, I don't understand the situation - I'm assuming they used wins, losses and playoff performance to determine who gets awarded back then.

As for the first two points, here's how I would put it as

1) When I first saw the trade, I was upset that they were going to include D'arnaud and I wanted something more back if we were going to send our future catcher for a 38 year old knuckerballer, even if he did win the CY young. I wasn't a believer back then and I didn't know anything about Dickey, I thought he was a one year wonder. Then there were rumors that Syndergaard was included. Every Jays fan on all the intelligent blogs out there were pissed and refused to believe that. Mets fans, on the other hand were overjoyed to see it happen. Their best case scenario was D'Arnaud and Gose, while our best case scenario was Gose + Arencibia. Most trades fall in between fan projections you see, so we were thinking D'Arnaud by himself was a fair trade and most fans believed that. After looking at Dickey's stats some more and just from massive reading, I was coming around to liking it. After all, we were a really good team already and adding Dickey would make us the favorite. The over/under on us is 92.5 right now according to Vegas. Our odds are 7.5/1 to win the world series but that number is buoyed by fans buying into the hype. I would think we're one of the top 5 teams in all of baseball, behind teams like Nationals, San Fran and maybe around the same as LA and Tampa. My logical side said this is bad trade, but my emotional side is happy, so I made a compromise and accepted it for what it is, a trade we needed although we did give up a lot. If you listen to Keith Law on ESPN baseball today, he sums it up pretty well (paraphrasing here, Jays gave up a lot but while they were on the edge of playoff contention, now they're the favorites with that one extra piece) Most of the industry raves about the prospects the Mets got back because on paper, it's a fantastic trade for the Mets and while I know we overpaid, I understand why AA did it.

2) D'Arnaud is way above Hechavarria on any list out there. D'Arnaud can hit, play defence, catch, and has power. Hechavarria can only play defence. His hit tool is suspect and he has little power. His Vegas numbers were inflated due to PCL factors and if you saw his numbers in AA, you could see that he was awful. I would think that someone of your alleged background would know a thing or two about prospects.

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

Bindi, we are in the presence of a baseball maven. He's obviously smarter than a bag of fleas when it comes to statistics. :)

[Duncan Smith]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

Actually, there is nothing emotional at all about my clearly stated thoughts on the trade and the players involved.
I don't really want to harp on this. If you want on-topic specifics, on this most recent post, I'd contest
the following :

1. Everyone hates the second trade ( an online poll I saw said 60%
thought Jays won trade; sure that's just random ppl ).

2. The Jays gave away far less in the Marlins trade then the Dickey Trade.

Jack Morris was pursued by the whole league because he won games, ate up innings,
and was a clutch performer. None of those qualities would have registered consistantly
on your favorite stats.

Nothing personal I don't expect you to agree.

[Duncan Smith]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!! "Winning"

Mark, thank you for the supporting comments us old guys have seen the good and the bad for the Blue Jays. 1983-1993 we were a powerhouse big money team that was always a playoff contender. My kids have never seen a successful Jays team and they still think its a joke when I tell them that "this time" they will be a real contender.

My opinion, the 2012 season showed there is a huge undercurrent of new and old fans ready to believe in this team, but continued mediocrity now ( building for the future yada yada yada ... ) might have been a huge risk. Glad to see the executive is finally recognizing this reality.

Last odds I saw was 14-1 to win Series. Plenty of teams still lower odds including the Yankees ( guess people think they'll scratch out some signings ). I liked the quoted over/under of 88 wins ( not sure if its moved ); take the over and enjoy the season. What an incredible pitching staff; the middle relief is top notch now as well.

[Mark S. Dutton]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!! "Winning"

LOL. So you're essentially saying "I don't care how much the Jays spend or give away their minor league talent, I just want to win."

YES -- is the simple answer.

The Toronto Blue Jays began in 1977. I have been a Seasons Ticket holder since the beginning. 35 Years Now!

After 15 years -- World Series Championship Number 1 (1992)
After 16 years -- World Series Championship Number 2 (1993)

20 years of nothing - zilch --

2013 -- After 35 years a potential 3rd World Series Championship.

It would be very reasonable in a league of 30 teams that Toronto wins it all every 12 years on average, right? Not every 30 years or never at all -- (insert Seattle Mariners here).

So yes -- give away the farm and win it all.

Winning isn’t everything; it’s the only thing :D




Don't take my word for it -- ask Charlie Sheen :D

Video on winning here: http://youtu.be/pipTwjwrQYQ

Yes -- let's win it all.

[Lucac Humac]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

Hello guys ,

I seem to recall for the big teams of the early 90's the starters didn't have to go more than 7 innings. Ward would come in for the 8th for the setup and Henke would close it out in the 9th. After Henke went to Texas (?) in 1993 they tried Ward for closing but other than in 1993 it never seemed to work as well as they seemed to hoped.

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[Bindi Cheng]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

Or vice versa ? Depends on your criteria, if it's fiscal the Marlins trade could be a disaster. The Jays for almost two decades would never have made the first trade, Reyes is one of the most overpaid players in baseball, and Johnson is on an expiring contract. Beurhle is not cheap. Hercheveria was easily their strongest young addition last season, he looked major league ready. Plus they threw in one of their big three class A guys.

Look, it's not me slamming the trade it's the three of you. I like both trades, but you are so sure of yourself that you know better then the Blue Jays GM. Classic Chesstalk really that when faced with an opposite opinion that you try to turn the argument around by blaming someone for daring to disagree with you. I have made a very well presented argument in support of this trade, and quite seriously the correct answer from you should be well I can see your points but all things considered I disagree with you. But I guess silly sarcasm is more your thing but idgaf.

LOL. So you're essentially saying "I don't care how much the Jays spend or give away their minor league talent, I just want to win." You do understand that we gave away more for R A Dickey, a 38 year old knuckleballer then the entire Marlins trade right? I know he's the NL CY young award winner and he's been very good the past 3 years and will likely continue to be for the next 3 but do you ever read what you write or do you just love making enemies?

The world isn't against you Duncan, we're not all ganging up on you. What started out as a positive post by me turned into a flame war because of a disagreement. I'm fine with disagreements but not when an entire portion of the game like statistics is thrown out the window to suit your argument. It's not just me saying the 1st trade was good and the 2nd trade was bad, everyone was saying it. The consensus is that "we gave up too much for Dickey but now that we have him, let's enjoy the playoff run because we believe in AA." You really need to stop being so angry at the world and letting your emotions take control of your actions because your argument is clearly based on emotional and personal opinions rather than on an objective view.

Additionally, on your point about Jack Morris, wins and losses are such a useless stat when determining how good pitchers are. Let me ask you, do you think a pitcher with a 0-5 record who has given up 1-2 runs in those 5 games while lasting 7 innings or more each time is worth less than a pitcher who went 5-0 who gives up 5 runs in those 5 games in 5 innings? Fan590. Strikeouts/9, Walks/9, Groundball% are all much more useful stats as pitchers can actually control those rates to a certain extent. This whole topic is bringing my baseball IQ down. It feels like arguing with fans on TSN or listening to casual fans call in on the Fan590.

Lastly, I started watching the Jays back in 2000 but only took a serious interest in statistics in 2009 when AA was brought on. You might think that you have more passion for the game than I do based on time spent, but as we all know in chess, it doesn't matter how much time you spend on it, but rather what you do with that time. It seems pretty clear to me that your time wasn't spent very efficiently.

[Duncan Smith]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

Or vice versa ? Depends on your criteria, if it's fiscal the Marlins trade could be a disaster. The Jays for almost two decades would never have made the first trade, Reyes is one of the most overpaid players in baseball, and Johnson is on an expiring contract. Beurhle is not cheap. Hercheveria was easily their strongest young addition last season, he looked major league ready. Plus they threw in one of their big three class A guys.

Look, it's not me slamming the trade it's the three of you. I like both trades, but you are so sure of yourself that you know better then the Blue Jays GM. Classic Chesstalk really that when faced with an opposite opinion that you try to turn the argument around by blaming someone for daring to disagree with you. I have made a very well presented argument in support of this trade, and quite seriously the correct answer from you should be well I can see your points but all things considered I disagree with you. But I guess silly sarcasm is more your thing but idgaf.

[Duncan Smith]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

Seems to be useless arguing with you Duncan. I've tried pointing out facts from baseball sites, articles from professional writers with deep baseball knowledge (who are not the typical Toronto sport writer) and given quantitative and qualitative evidence of my points but sigh... some people just don't get it.

I believe clearly you don't get it. You have a kind of tunnel vision and are mesmorized by statistics. There are many facets to trades; for example salary considerations would suggest the Dickey trade was extremely good and the Marlins trade bad ( quite the opposite of your aggressive stance on the trades ). But given the new strategy for the Jays ( win now ), both trades look extremely good to me, with the Marlins being the better trade but firesales of talent aren't that available normally.

I could quote stats til I'm blue in the face but that would just be feeding into your overemphasis on numerics and a kind of brazen attitude that your position is "correct". I don't really care these moves are long overdue and we have had 19 years of mostly bad plans involving penny pinching and stockpiling prospects that have gone almost nowhere. And you are probably too young to have experienced the Pat Gillick years when the Blue Jays brought in established veteran stars regularily and traded strong prospects for veteran add ons. For example, David Cone for Jeff Kent, a trade you'd have to hate with a passion I guess using your beliefs in this thread. Kent was hitting home runs regularily as soon as he made the team and Cone was pretty much a short term add. Or signing an aging Jack Morris who routinely put up bad statistics most seasons in every way except one : winning.

Don't think that your passion for this topic trumps mine.I had the same young passion for the game in the 1980s, and a real good memory for what happened for decades and how player transactions can look really good or really bad overnight. Decades later I highly doubt your interest since 2006 or whenever is giving you some sort of extra insight at all.

In fact, that's my closing point. You are so sure of yourself and to be blunt you have NO IDEA how this transaction will turn out. None of us do. I have repeatably said this on several posts, but you don't get it.

So what was the trade again, the reigning Cy Young winner for two good prospects, one of who is rated #17 in the minor leagues overall. Read that again, and understand what that means. All this fuss from you is so overdone its absurd. Enjoy the team and take an interest in all these good players, but don't for a minute think you have any idea how their careers will turn out.

[Christopher Mallon]

Re: Toronto Blue Jays!!

What I see is you first praising the Blue Jays GM for making one trade then criticizing him deeply on the next trade.

But it couldn't POSSIBLY be that the first trade was good and the second was not, could it??