Aronian - Carlsen - who's going to win?

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  • Re: Aronian - Carlsen - who's going to win?

    Rd 10 Magnus plays the Rosslimo Sicilian again against Boris (one of my favorite openings) and has a comfortable edge where he is trying to force Black into passivity. But you can count on Boris to go down fighting (or come up with a fight).:) Magnus learns chess lessons quickly and Im sure he learned graphically from Radjabov in a previous round.

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    • Re: Aronian - Carlsen - who's going to win?

      Rd 10 Svidler and Radjabov quick draw. Kramnik essays his favorite Berlin Wall, rock solid - almost even - even according to computer. Chucky throws out another one of my delights - the Budapest Gambit - but it looks like Levon has no trouble handling it although he has used alot of time.

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      • Re: Aronian - Carlsen - who's going to win?

        Rd 10 Magnus! Magnus made it look easy - keeping pressure on Gelfand, winning a pawn and converting (even giving the bishop) with connected C and B pawns. Chucky got short of time and overlooked Levon's threats on the kingside. Grischuk got careless in the endgame against Kramnik and you cant do that against Vlad. Net result Magnus +4, Levon +3, Vlad +2, rest of field = or -.

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        • Re: Aronian - Carlsen - who's going to win?

          I can see Magnus going 4-0 in the next 4 games (with his ability). Who's going to stop him? Grischuk? Svidler? Chucky? Radjabov?

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          • Re : Re: Aronian - Carlsen - who's going to win?

            Originally posted by Hans Jung View Post
            Rd 10 Magnus! Magnus made it look easy - keeping pressure on Gelfand, winning a pawn and converting (even giving the bishop) with connected C and B pawns. Chucky got short of time and overlooked Levon's threats on the kingside. Grischuk got careless in the endgame against Kramnik and you cant do that against Vlad. Net result Magnus +4, Levon +3, Vlad +2, rest of field = or -.
            All 5 of the others are in negative territroy: Gelfand, Grischuk, and Svidler all at -1 and Ivanchuk and Radjabov at -3.

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            • Re: Aronian - Carlsen - who's going to win?

              Originally posted by Hans Jung View Post
              I can see Magnus going 4-0 in the next 4 games (with his ability). Who's going to stop him? Grischuk? Svidler? Chucky? Radjabov?
              I expect +2. Svidler can draw him, and one of the other three will pull it off.

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              • Re: Aronian - Carlsen - who's going to win?

                Originally posted by Hans Jung View Post
                Kramnik essays his favorite Berlin Wall, rock solid - almost even - even according to computer.
                It is solid and if white pushes, like Grischuk had to do, black gets winning chances.

                I used to play that Berlin wall in international CC at the higher levels. They were always round robin assignments. I'd note the players I though I could beat, those I had a chance against and those where I needed to try to draw. Then I'd play stuff like the Spanish Berlin against the players where I'd be happy to get a draw. Sometimes I'd win it but not often.

                Someone told me things have changed since 1948.
                Last edited by Gary Ruben; Wednesday, 27th March, 2013, 07:20 PM.
                Gary Ruben
                CC - IA and SIM

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                • Re: Aronian - Carlsen - who's going to win?

                  Originally posted by Alan Baljeu View Post
                  I expect +2. Svidler can draw him, and one of the other three will pull it off.
                  Ok - assuming. That means Aronian needs 3 wins out of 4 for a chance, and Kramnik 4-0. Nada.

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                  • Re: Aronian - Carlsen - who's going to win?

                    Kramnik played a fine game today. When was the last time Magnus blundered? Because only by a blunder he can lose this.

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                    • Re: Aronian - Carlsen - who's going to win?

                      Rd11 Grischuk plays 5.h4 in the Grunfeld - creative? - Magnus changes the nature of the game to his own preferences with 12...e5 creating dynamic central play with emphasis on the black and black squared fianchetto bishop. Additional question where will Grischuk's king end up? The other Grunfeld is Chucky Gelfand - as it is the only boring game of the round it ends in a quick draw so that we can concentrate on the 3 remaining interesting games. Levon decides on Nimzo approach and clears the central pawns (big exception his weak pawn on e6). Whose piece activity will tell most in the end? Radjabov opts for c5 instead of d5 but Vlad creates his own positional impression. His pieces are more active than Blacks. Both Radjabov and Grischuk are getting short of time - more than half an hour less than Magnus and Vlad - will that play a role?

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                      • Re: Aronian - Carlsen - who's going to win?

                        Rd11 Grischuk - Magnus puzzling draw agreed. Levon played some startling bizarre pawn moves in a row - g5 and b5 and the ending proved too difficult to hold. Nice finish by Svidler. Vlad converted a nice edge. Second win in a row! After 11 Carlsen leads by half over Kramnik and one over Aronian.

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                        • Re: Aronian - Carlsen - who's going to win?

                          Key game tomorrow - Aronian - Kramnik. Levon must win. Magnus has white against Chucky, then black against Radjabov, ending up with white against Svidler.

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                          • Re: Aronian - Carlsen - who's going to win?

                            At what point do Aronian and Kramnik help Carlsen's opponents
                            should they help Ivanchuk tonight! or focus on there own match tomorrow!

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                            • Re: Aronian - Carlsen - who's going to win?

                              Got to agree. For both Aronian and Kramnik it's "all-in" if either is to keep pace. A draw would almost guarantee a Carlsen victory, especially given Ivanchuk's play.

                              Any predictions on the opening? Aronian has white.

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                              • Re: Aronian - Carlsen - who's going to win?

                                I went away for Easter and the sky fell in. Lol. Rd12 Aronian had white against Kramnik. Levon had his type of position but Vlad was defending actively. Levon sacked a piece and it was very complicated and he missed the best continuation. (afterwards both players thought they were winning! :)) After the middle game complications Levon remained a piece down in the ending and couldnt win but had good chances to draw. Alas a final mistake and Kramnik won. Levon Aronian is out (cannot win the candidates). In the other critical game Magnus played in hiw own words terribly all game. One of the commentators said his position slid downhill all game. The game finally reached a rook and pawn endgame where Black was better but looked like good chances to hold a draw. Magnus continued with mistakes and finally Chucky played accurately and inspired to win. The tables had turned. At the start of the round Magnus Carlsen was in first place, end of round Vlad Kramnik was in first place, half point ahead of Carlsen, and Aronian was out.

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