Aronian - Carlsen - who's going to win?

[Hans Jung]

Great match. I'm going to enjoy the games. No predictions for me but Im prepared to be surprised.:)

[Egidijus Zeromskis]

Re: Aronian - Carlsen - who's going to win?

Great match.

Err. Do you mean a game in the first round in London?

[Mark S. Dutton]

Re: Aronian - Carlsen - who's going to win? London Candidates will be the strongest!

Great match. I'm going to enjoy the games. No predictions for me but Im prepared to be surprised.:)

The London Candidates will be the strongest tournament of its kind in history. The Prize Fund to be shared by the players totals €510,000.

The winner of the Candidates will become the Challenger to Viswanathan Anand who has reigned as World Champion since 2007.

Dates: March 14, 2013 - April 1, 2013.

Format: The Candidates is a double round-robin tournament with four rest days.

For detailed schedule: http://www.worldchess.com/candidates/calendar.html


Venue: The IET at 2 Savoy Place
Address: 2 Savoy Place, London WC2R 0BL
For further information: http://www.worldchess.com/candidates/tickets.html
Tickets will be available on the website and at the venue.


Players:

Levon Aronian (ARM)
Magnus Carlsen (NOR)
Boris Gelfand (ISR)
Alexander Grischuk (RUS)
Vassily Ivanchuk (UKR)
Vladimir Kramnik (RUS)
Teimour Radjabov (AZE)
Peter Svidler (RUS)

[Jack Maguire]

Re : Aronian - Carlsen - who's going to win?

Great match. I'm going to enjoy the games. No predictions for me but Im prepared to be surprised.:)

While Carlsen is clearly the favourite, he has to be the worst possible bet in the field of 8. Imho, Aronian is a far superior bet and I certainly won't change my mind if Carlsen happens to prevail (which he may well).

There are some other interesting bets as well. Marathonbet.com lists the following odds for the ultimate winner:

Carlsen 1.65
Aronian 5.70
Kramnik 7.90
Ivanchuk 13.00
Radjabov 16.00
Grischuk 19.00
Svidler 41.00
Gelfand 61.00

[Tom O'Donnell]

Re: Aronian - Carlsen - who's going to win?

Radjabov has been very quiet over the last year, hardly playing any games at regular time controls. I wonder how much prep work he has been doing. My suspicion is a great deal. I would certainly rate his chances at much better than Marathonbet.com has them.

[Jack Maguire]

Re : Re: Aronian - Carlsen - who's going to win?

Radjabov has been very quiet over the last year, hardly playing any games at regular time controls. I wonder how much prep work he has been doing. My suspicion is a great deal. I would certainly rate his chances at much better than Marathonbet.com has them.

Given Radjabov is currently less than 8 rating points below Kramnik and 36 points better than Ivanchuk, I can't disagree. I iterate, while Carlsen is the most likely to win this event, he's probably the only bad bet amongst the 8.

[Hans Jung]

Re: Aronian - Carlsen - who's going to win?

Actually I was just wondering who was going to win that game. However who is going to win the candidates matches is an excellent question!? - and no i dont think it is limited to just Aronian and Carlsen.

[Bindi Cheng]

Re: Aronian - Carlsen - who's going to win?

I would put money on Aronian and Ivanchuk - Aronian because the odds are pretty decent since he's the second favorite, and Ivanchuk because you never know when he whips out 5 wins in a row. I wouldn't put money on Kramnik since I find it hard to believe he'll be able to win as many games to win the tournament. Kramnik will probably come in a solid 2nd or 3rd though.

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Aronian - Carlsen - who's going to win?

I'm don't bet chess but think Grischuk is a decent long shot. It's where I'd put my bet because of the short odds on some other players.

[Jack Maguire]

Re : Re: Aronian - Carlsen - who's going to win?

I'm don't bet chess but think Grischuk is a decent long shot. It's where I'd put my bet because of the short odds on some other players.

Personally, I'd take Svidler (+7 against this composite field, as detailed at ChessBase by Michael von Kietz) at more than double of odds of Grischuk (-12 against the same field). Imho, Grischuk might even be the least likely to win here.

[Laurentiu Grigorescu]

Re: Aronian - Carlsen - who's going to win?

Here it is my take on the Candidates tournament in London: Magnus must win! He is the clear favorite because he won so many recent super tournaments and he is by far the most motivated and uncompromising player. Excluding unforeseen circumstances, there is no reason to believe some other player will come first. However, given the extra-class of all others, surprises may come up. But I believe it is good for chess in general if Magnus wins - and passes 2900 in the process.
Ivanchuk will provide the most entertaining chess but I doubt that he has the discipline to come first. Aronian had huge difficulties recently when played White, and unless he comes with something unexpected, he will struggle again. Kramnik, Gelfand, Grischuk and Svidler will be solid but not more.
The only surprise may come from Radjabov. He is at the right age and may be more motivated that others. Besides, his chess is uncompromising, I hope he will mark few wins with KID.
This field of players seems stronger that Mexico 2007. If Magnus wins, the new Challeger will be half the age of the World Champion. That will make their match unique to say the least.

[Nicolas Haynes]

Re: Aronian - Carlsen - who's going to win?

I'm don't bet chess but think Grischuk is a decent long shot. It's where I'd put my bet because of the short odds on some other players.

I thought it was a bit of a travesty of the last Candidates tournament that Grischuk almost won it without winning a single non-tiebreak game. I'm criticizing the format more than Grischuk. As it pertains to this tournament I really hope that the "Carlsen" effect of playing for blood in almost every game trickles down to the rest of the field. I think if the best players don't want to see sponsers moving away from long time control tournaments they need to make more of an effort to play out every game, regardless of the chances of their opponent making a mistake. Carlsen and some others frequently do this, I hope this trend increases as opposed to short draws.

[Jack Maguire]

Re : Aronian - Carlsen - who's going to win?

I see that Anish Giri has totally discounted the chances of 3 of the Candidates in a German interview:

"I can not imagine, that Gelfand wins, but unlike Radjabov, Svidler and Grischuk I can not rule it out completely. Even in Kazan, he was good for a miracle.“

And further on Grischuk:

"Everything between ' 2’ and in last place is possible. But a contender for the win, he is not."

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Re : Aronian - Carlsen - who's going to win?

To simplify this, who would you bet to win?

By the way, who's Anish Giri ? Usually when these names are thrown out they turn out to be the flavour of the day.

[Peter McKillop]

Re: Re : Aronian - Carlsen - who's going to win?

To simplify this, who would you bet to win?

By the way, who's Anish Giri ? Usually when these names are thrown out they turn out to be the flavour of the day.

My money's on Slammin' Sammy Reshevsky.