Prediction - US Presidential 2024

[Bob Gillanders]

Harris campaign continues to steamroll forward and Trump continues to collapse, but a lot could happen between now and November. Very difficult to gauge the speed of change and there is always a lag between the polls and what if the election were today.

I will summarize my updated prediction as such:

Democrats safe and likely votes 270, add Nevada 6, total 276. My last if election were held today prediction, Harris 276, Trump 262.
The balance of the battleground states are very close to joining Harris column, but hard to say exactly when.
But I believe they will all shortly be there, if trends continue.
So: add Arizona 11, Georgia 16, North Carolina 16, 43 +276 = 319 - most likely Harris total in election.

If predictions of a landslide are realized, add Florida 30, Texas 40, Maine 1 district, 319 +71 = 390
Will any of the hard core Red states join the landslide?? Probably not.

So most likely prediction as of today - Harris 319 Trump 219.

I am disappointed the polls remain stubbornly close, but my prediction from Aug 10 remains the same.
Harris will win with 319.

[Pargat Perrer]

Presidential debate on Sept. 10th was a clear victory for Kamala Harris. Donald Trump keeps finding new ways of making a fool of himself. That was the first time these two people had ever met. Still, it would be a mistake to count Trump out of winning in November.

Making a fool of yourself has no bearing in U.S. politics. Even being a CONVICTED FELON seems to have no bearing. Just one reason the U.S. is on the path to ruin.

[Frank Dixon]

Presidential debate on Sept. 10th was a clear victory for Kamala Harris. Donald Trump keeps finding new ways of making a fool of himself. That was the first time these two people had ever met. Still, it would be a mistake to count Trump out of winning in November.

[Sid Belzberg]

Thanks for the heads up on those polls. I checked the RCP website, and they are included in their summary of most recent polls.
The RCP Average for Battleground states does show Harris still leading in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
This would give her the bare minimum of 270 to win.

To close for anyone to get comfortable.

Hey Bob G ,
You should be VERY comfortable, "lawsuits and bullets" style campaigns have served the likes of Chavez and Maduro well
for a long time. I mean, really, who needs campaign interiews when you can just have your opponent killed by shooting him in the face?
Of course, you prefer to ignore that inconvenient truth. Have you read the early findings of the House committee?
Your so-called democratic party are nothing but corrupted tyrannical thugs.

[Bob Gillanders]

NEW POLLS SHOW TRUMP LEADING IN KEY BATTLEGROUND STATES Fresh Polls by Trafalgar and Insider Advantage from seven battleground states suggest Trump could win the election with 296 electoral votes: - Michigan: Trump leads 47% to 46.6%. - Pennsylvania: Trump ahead 47% to 45%. - Wisconsin: Trump edges out Harris 47% to 46%. - Arizona: Trump holds a slight lead at 49% to 48%. - Nevada: Trump leads 48% to 47%. - North Carolina: Trump is ahead 49% to 48%. - Georgia: Harris narrowly leads 48% to 47.6%. These polls indicate a shift from recent surveys showing Kamala gaining in key states. Source: Trafalgar, NY Post

Thanks for the heads up on those polls. I checked the RCP website, and they are included in their summary of most recent polls.
The RCP Average for Battleground states does show Harris still leading in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
This would give her the bare minimum of 270 to win.

To close for anyone to get comfortable.

[Sid Belzberg]

NEW POLLS SHOW TRUMP LEADING IN KEY BATTLEGROUND STATES Fresh Polls by Trafalgar and Insider Advantage from seven battleground states suggest Trump could win the election with 296 electoral votes: - Michigan: Trump leads 47% to 46.6%. - Pennsylvania: Trump ahead 47% to 45%. - Wisconsin: Trump edges out Harris 47% to 46%. - Arizona: Trump holds a slight lead at 49% to 48%. - Nevada: Trump leads 48% to 47%. - North Carolina: Trump is ahead 49% to 48%. - Georgia: Harris narrowly leads 48% to 47.6%. These polls indicate a shift from recent surveys showing Kamala gaining in key states. Source: Trafalgar, NY Post

[Sid Belzberg]

It's Probably your first time here, too, Sid. Don't worry .... you'll find out.

Originally posted by Pargat Perrer
"I have no problem seeing man as a cancer .... seeing man as not the end product, but as a means to an end ...."

View Post https://forum.chesstalk.com/forum/ch...ge5#post231409

[Pargat Perrer]

https://www.defense.gov/News/News-St...fies-attacker/

"Ordered by U.S. Army Central Command in September 2023, the results of the two-year supplemental review found that no new information disclosed in public testimony since March 2023 had any material impact on the original investigation's findings. It also confirmed that a lone ISIS-K suicide bomber had carried out the attack, and that the attack could not have been preventable at the tactical level"

Hey Sid, remember the U.S. withdrawal from Vietnam? Who was in power then? Yeah, Republicans!

Do you really believe these huge military misadventures can be blamed on individual politicians?

These disgusting Trumptards are willing to sacrifice their sons' and daughters' legacy for POLITICAL purposes, namely the aggrandisement of Trump himself. "Trump was invited" they all say. "Trump cared about our sons and daughters" one of them said.

How pathetic and hollow and devoid of humanity. The soullessness being shown here is disturbing. These are PARENTS willing to throw their sons' and daughters' legacy under the bus to elect Trump.

TRUMP DOESN'T GIVE A FART ABOUT THESE PEOPLE!!!! He engineered this whole episode, purposely getting close to these parents so he could use it for political purposes right now during the 2024 election campaign. Trump is corrupt and soulless to the worst degree I have seen in any human being in my lifetime.




from https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...an-withdrawal/

“It was a catastrophe, across the board, a civil, military, right down to tactical, catastrophe, and all Trump’s trying to do is to bathe in the blood of those 13 troops,” said a former senior officer who served in Afghanistan, who spoke on condition of anonymity to speak candidly.

Trump and his supporters are working to frame the former president as a leader who deters violence through tough talk and action, and honors and respects American service members — even as Trump has a history of insulting and disparaging the military, wounded soldiers and those killed in action.



Sid,
If Trump cares so much about these dead service members and their families, why did he declare bankruptcy and not pay the contractors who built his buildings? Tell it to THEIR families!

Why did he make fun of a disabled person by crudely imitating on video that person's disablilty? Tell it to the families of disabled people!

A leopard doesn't change its spots.

And Sid, what do you think these parents would be complaining about if Biden / Harris had in the aftermath of this episode commiserated with them? POLITICAL OPPORTUNISM, that's what! They'd be complaining Biden / Harris purposely used this for the 2024 campaign!

Get a clue, Sid! As for these parents, these extreme right-wing zealots, I believe they are immature souls, perhaps in their first Earth incarnation, and are here for the purposes of making Earth a more troubled place to exist, which is part of my belief system.... i.e. that some souls are here to make sure Earth never gets close to being a "heavenly" place to exist. Probably your first time here too, Sid. Don't worry .... you'll find out.

And in the spirit of those last comments, I believe Trump will win the 2024 Presidency .... simply because it ensures a path of more chaos, more unrest, more conflict in the months and years to come. That is what Earth is meant for .... suffering and conflict and the testing and development to higher spiritual levels of our souls.

But come to think of it, even if Trump loses he can still cause massive unrest .... because of Trumptards like these disgusting (but necessary) U.S. service member parents.....

[Sid Belzberg]

I am not clear of the point being made by posting this link. Is it being said that Trump actually did something honorable by attending this ceremony?

I am reminded of the 2016 campaign when Trump totally denigrated war hero and Senator John McCain. I consider McCain to be among the finest men who ever walked this Earth. I even forgive him for being Republican. He served his country in ways none of us can imagine. I would have been fine to have had McCain as President.

To have Trump trample over him with his remark that "I'd rather have someone who wasn't captured" was the ultimate in unconscionable behavior.

Anyone trying to use this cemetery controversy as an indication that Trump honors war service needs to be f**king reminded of his true soulless nature.

Remember too Trump's avoidance of military service with the made-up "bone spurs in the heels" crap.

Trump does not have an ounce .... he does not have a gram ... he does not have an ATOM of respect for the true heroes of this world. This whole controversy is something he likely ENGINEERED!!! That is his soulless nature.

How anyone claiming to have a shred of decency can vote for Trump is beyond my understanding, even given my wide range of tolerance.

[Pargat Perrer]

https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/31/polit...sot-smr-digvid

I am not clear of the point being made by posting this link. Is it being said that Trump actually did something honorable by attending this ceremony?

I am reminded of the 2016 campaign when Trump totally denigrated war hero and Senator John McCain. I consider McCain to be among the finest men who ever walked this Earth. I even forgive him for being Republican. He served his country in ways none of us can imagine. I would have been fine to have had McCain as President.

To have Trump trample over him with his remark that "I'd rather have someone who wasn't captured" was the ultimate in unconscionable behavior.

Anyone trying to use this cemetery controversy as an indication that Trump honors war service needs to be f**king reminded of his true soulless nature.

Remember too Trump's avoidance of military service with the made-up "bone spurs in the heels" crap.

Trump does not have an ounce .... he does not have a gram ... he does not have an ATOM of respect for the true heroes of this world. This whole controversy is something he likely ENGINEERED!!! That is his soulless nature.

How anyone claiming to have a shred of decency can vote for Trump is beyond my understanding, even given my wide range of tolerance.

[Dilip Panjwani]

https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/31/polit...sot-smr-digvid

[Tom O'Donnell]

Jack Smith coincidentally is married to Katy Chevigny, who just happens to be a producer of the movie "Becoming" based on Michelle Obama's book of the same name.

[Sid Belzberg]

Trump has at least found a way to stay in the news, after the Harris / Walz campaign broke his momentum!!

Two recent major news stories involving Trump:
1) Special Counsel Jack Smith, presenting to the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals in Atlanta, to re-mount the Documents case, which had been dismissed by Trump-appointed judge Aileen Cannon in Palm Beach; I believe Smith will win;
2) Smith re-filing the Insurrection case, eliminating one element, against Trump, in Washington, after the Supreme Court ruled on July 1, on broad presidential powers.
However, neither case is expected to begin actual courtroom proceedings before the November election.

Also, Trump's sentencing on the hush-money felonies case in New York is fast approaching, having been twice postponed.

This 2024 election is consequential and existential for Trump in ways that no previous U.S. presidential election has ever been, for ANY candidate. If Trump loses it, he will spend the rest of his life in court or in jail, with his fortune in peril.

[Bob Gillanders]

According to 538 yesterday, battleground states:

Trump leads in Georgia, North Carolina
Harris leads in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

So if election was held today
Harris wins with 287.

But I think by election day, Georgia & North Carolina will move to Harris.
My prediction thus remains Harris wins with 319.

[Frank Dixon]

Trump has at least found a way to stay in the news, after the Harris / Walz campaign broke his momentum!!

Two recent major news stories involving Trump:
1) Special Counsel Jack Smith, presenting to the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals in Atlanta, to re-mount the Documents case, which had been dismissed by Trump-appointed judge Aileen Cannon in Palm Beach; I believe Smith will win;
2) Smith re-filing the Insurrection case, eliminating one element, against Trump, in Washington, after the Supreme Court ruled on July 1, on broad presidential powers.
However, neither case is expected to begin actual courtroom proceedings before the November election.

Also, Trump's sentencing on the hush-money felonies case in New York is fast approaching, having been twice postponed.

This 2024 election is consequential and existential for Trump in ways that no previous U.S. presidential election has ever been, for ANY candidate. If Trump loses it, he will spend the rest of his life in court or in jail, with his fortune in peril.