Prediction - US Presidential 2024

[Bob Armstrong]

Trumpenomics



"National Debt Would Surge Under Trump, New Analysis Shows"

https://time.com/7055327/us-debt-har...lctg=206908353

Bob A

[Dilip Panjwani]

OMG! You sound like Dilip...

Yes, Bob G, pointing out stuff which you missed...

[Bob Gillanders]

OMG! You sound like Trump...

OMG! You sound like Dilip...

[Dilip Panjwani]

Hey Americans, when you idiots make a decision, let us know. until then, just shut up.

OMG! You sound like Trump...

[Bob Gillanders]

Wisconsin, in a very recent poll, showed Harris/Trump statistically tied. They considered it now a swing state (8th).

Bob A

Bob, I believe Wisconsin has always been considered one of the 7 battleground states.

Recently the polls seems to be very consistent.

Harris leads in Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada.
Trump leads in Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia.
Pennsylvania is Tied.

So whoever wins Pennsylvania, wins.

Crazy, lots of stuff happening, but nothing changes.
I get the feeling the pollsters are just asking the same people over and over again, the same questions.
There are lots of new voters, who appear never to be included.

It's mentally exhausting, checking less and less now. Turning it off now. Got better stuff to do.
Hey Americans, when you idiots make a decision, let us know. until then, just shut up.

[Tom O'Donnell]

Michael Malice on X: "Literal retard" / X

He's not wrong.

[Pargat Perrer]

Liz Cheney endorses Kamala Harris at an event located at the birthplace of the Republican Party ....

COUNTRY OVER PARTY is the theme.

Might convince a lot of independent voters.

[Bob Armstrong]

Will Trump's Legal Problems Sink his 2024 Campaign?

"Donald Trump “resorted to crimes” in a failed bid to cling to power after losing the 2020 election, federal prosecutors said in a newly unsealed court filing that argues that the former president is not entitled to immunity from prosecution."

https://link.apnews.com/view/611cc5f....72zu/ee41d624

Bob A

[Bob Armstrong]

Wisconsin, in a very recent poll, showed Harris/Trump statistically tied. They considered it now a swing state (8th).

My list before that (24/9/27) was (Posted on TRN):


Americas - USA

Presidential/Other Election: Tues., Nov. 4, 2024.

US Vice President Kamala Harris is leading Donald Trump in most of the seven states likely to determine the November election. She has all but neutralized the Republican’s advantage on economic issues, fueling an upbeat showing for the Democrat in battleground states. A Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll of swing states shows Harris now leading among likely voters [6 of 7]:

1. by 7 percentage points in Nevada,
2. 5 points in Pennsylvania,
3. 3 points in Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin, and
4. 2 points in North Carolina.

The two are tied in Georgia [7th swing state].

Bloomberg Media: Evening Brief Newsletter - 24/9/27

Bob A

[Bob Gillanders]

All of the seven key battleground states -- Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia -- remain very close, with margins within the polling error percentages. This has been the case now for several weeks, and is likely to remain that way until Election Day in early November.

Crazy, eh. I still think all 7 battleground states will be won by Harris. But I am counting on some level of sunlight getting thru those red MAGA hats.
Of course, my prediction is based on a true and fair election process. Trump will no doubt claim he won anyway.
Then the legal battles begin.

Vice Presidential debate is Tuesday. Maybe that will shake things up.

Frank, you mentioned Texas & Florida sometime ago as possible battle ground states. I have heard both have had polls within 3 points. So I was hoping to see them added to the battleground list. But alas, not. I guess it was just an odd poll or two, nothing definitive. But who knows!

[Frank Dixon]

Other exceptionally close U.S. Presidential elections:

1) 1948: Harry Truman (D) defeated Thomas E. Dewey (R). Truman had trailed very badly well into the campaign, before undertaking a nationwide train trip to campaign hard and improve his chances. He pulled it out in the final days. One major Chicago newspaper actually printed a story "Dewey Defeats Truman", the day after the polling, a copy of which the victorious incumbent gleefully displayed that same day!!. In Alabama, Truman, as incumbent president, was NOT listed on the electoral ballot; the state went to Strom Thurmond of the 'Dixiecrat' Party, as did several other southern states, cutting into Truman's margin.

2) 1960: John F. Kennedy (D) defeated Richard Nixon (R). Ever since, debate has revolved around cheating, primarily by the Democrats, in certain states. In his masterful book, "The Dark Side Of Camelot", Seymour Hersh outlines previously unpublished details on the extent of Kennedy-financed fraud in Illinois, a vitally important state. It was heavily funded by JFK's exceptionally wealthy father, Joseph P. Kennedy, to the Chicago underworld. Illinois results came in late, with a narrow margin for Kennedy, with very heavy voting in Mafia-controlled Chicago districts, some of which had more votes than registered voters.
Texas was the other major state involved. In his exceptional book "Lyndon Johnson: Means Of Ascent", Robert Caro presents the most comprehensive analysis of Johnson cheating in the 1948 Texas senatorial primary runoff election, which he won by 87 votes, making up a nearly 70,000 vote deficit to very popular former Governor Coke Stevenson from the first round of primary voting, just a few weeks earlier. In that era, Democratic primary success was tantamount to eventual election. Kennedy selected Johnson as his running mate for 1960, with one main reason apparently being 'Landslide Lyndon's 'extra-special abilities' in certain areas of South Texas.

3) 1968: Richard Nixon (R) defeated Hubert Humphrey (D). In a battle of Vice-Presidents (Nixon, 1953-61) edged Humphrey (1965-69), as Humphrey narrowed the gap in the final campaign days. Many historians now point to Nixon's behind-the-scenes discussions with South Vietnamese leaders, who were near a peace settlement with the North in the Vietnam War, to NOT do a deal prior to the election, promising a better deal for them if he were elected. Nixon feared a late bump for Humphrey arising from a peace deal. A very turbulent campaign year had seen President Lyndon Johnson withdraw his candidacy in late March; the entry of anti-war candidate Democrat Robert F. Kennedy later in the race, followed by his subsequent assassination in early June as he was gaining momentum; the earlier assassination in April of Black Democrat leader Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., and a very chaotic Democratic convention in Chicago. On the Republican side, some nasty infighting featured Nixon and New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller, a much more moderate and generally better-liked figure, one of the world's wealthiest people, who had divorced his wife (the former Mary Todhunter Clark), a few years before, to marry a much younger woman (known as 'Happy' Rockefeller). Rockefeller later served as Vice-President (1974-77) in the frolics arising from the Watergate scandal, which saw Nixon resign as President in August, 1974.

4) 2000: George W. Bush (R) defeated Al Gore, Jr. (D). This one went to the U.S. Supreme Court, which voted 5-4, some six weeks after polling day, to stop Florida recount voting, as V.P. Gore was gaining, in a controversial dispute over 'hanging chads' and improperly tabulated votes, from computer electoral ballots. The Court decision gave Florida, the Electoral College, and the White House, to Texas Governor Bush (son of former President George H.W. Bush), whose final Florida margin was under 1,000 votes. Gore outpolled Bush nationally by nearly half a million votes.

5) 2016: Donald Trump (R) defeated Hillary Clinton (D). Trump gained late in the campaign, to nip frontrunner Clinton, who had led from the start; she scaled back her late campaigning as Trump kept his up. Trump, a political rookie, won narrow margins in the normally Democratic states Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, to defeat Clinton, former First Lady, Senator, and Secretary of State. A total margin of less than 100,000 votes in those three states decided the presidency. Clinton's final vote count was nearly three million ahead of Trump's, but Trump won in the Electoral College.

6) 2020: Joseph R. Biden, Jr. (D) defeated Donald Trump (R). In a similar but ultimately reversed scenario to 2016, Biden's margins in three key states, totaling less than 40,000, gave him the White House. Biden outpolled Trump by nearly seven million votes nationally, an outcome Trump fought vigorously, but unsuccessfully, in the courts, and has decried ever since.

Perhaps the most corrupt U.S. Presidential election ever was in 1876 (Rutherford Hayes over Samuel Tilden). It was so complicated that I don't trust myself to get it right and post it here!

[Bob Armstrong]

Americas - USA

Presidential/Other Election: Tues., Nov. 4, 2024

"Donald Trump has pulled ahead of Kamala Harris in Arizona and is leading in tight races in Georgia and North Carolina, a Times/Siena poll shows.

The polls of these three states, taken from Sept. 17 to 21, presented further evidence that in a sharply divided nation, the presidential contest is shaping up to be one of the tightest in history."

The New York Times: Breaking News Newsletter
Monday, September 23, 2024 5:04 AM ET

[Pargat Perrer]

I am disappointed the polls remain stubbornly close, but my prediction from Aug 10 remains the same.
Harris will win with 319.

Trump is being under-counted in all the major polls?


unnamed Democratic senator:

“The only thing I can come up with is that people do feel embarrassed. Most of what he preaches, most of us have taught our children to try to not be that way on the playground. So there’s a certain amount of reluctance to admit I’m going to vote for somebody whose conduct I tell my children is wrong.”

What a great way to put it. Americans are voting against their own morals and ethics.

I predict that any battleground state that polls show in the week preceding the election as being within the margin of error, even it it is in favor of Harris, will be won by Trump.

and the pollsters will slink away shaking their heads again .....

[Bob Armstrong]

Thanks for some insightful analysis, Frank.

Bob

[Frank Dixon]

All of the seven key battleground states -- Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia -- remain very close, with margins within the polling error percentages. This has been the case now for several weeks, and is likely to remain that way until Election Day in early November.

North Carolina's Republican candidate for Governor, Mr. Robinson, looks to be having something of a personal crisis, with some highly erratic behavior recently. That phenomenon may impact the presidential campaign there.

TIME magazine's current issue has a cover with Donald Trump pictured, in a photo illustration, driving a golf cart into a bunker, noting that he is in trouble.

And Mr. Trump has some upcoming major legal issues to deal with, in the weeks ahead.

I simply wonder how he can be handing the constant pressure from all sides, at age 78.

Kamala Harris, about to turn age 60, is campaigning with enormous energy and enthusiasm. Her Democratic Party polling numbers, which dramatically surged upwards as she became the nominee, remain strong.

The Middle East situation seems to grow more volatile with each passing week, and could definitely affect the presidential race in unpredictable ways.