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Wisconsin, in a very recent poll, showed Harris/Trump statistically tied. They considered it now a swing state (8th).
Bob A
Bob, I believe Wisconsin has always been considered one of the 7 battleground states.
Recently the polls seems to be very consistent.
Harris leads in Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada.
Trump leads in Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia.
Pennsylvania is Tied.
So whoever wins Pennsylvania, wins.
Crazy, lots of stuff happening, but nothing changes.
I get the feeling the pollsters are just asking the same people over and over again, the same questions.
There are lots of new voters, who appear never to be included.
It's mentally exhausting, checking less and less now. Turning it off now. Got better stuff to do.
Hey Americans, when you idiots make a decision, let us know. until then, just shut up.
Sid, so according to polymarket betting, we can expect a Trump win?
How does it work, just curious.
Can the market get distorted by some large bet? Let's say maybe Elon Musk bets say $ 10,000,000,000 on Trump.
What if the election results are in dispute?
Hi Bob,
The way Polymarket work is that if you believe Harris will win (44.8 centsi is the price) you would buy yourself a "Harris Share" for 44.8 cents and if she wins you get $1.00.
Trying to distort this market is a waste of money because it would be akin to trying to distort the price of a stock in a worthless security; at some point, the company reports earnings, and if they are consistently poor, ultimately resulting in bankruptcy, you lose your money. In a stock market, you may be able to "pump and dump." Still, in this market, traders have their own ideas, and the price of security may discourage them from participating, but it will not influence their buying. Not enough people pay attention to this metric, which influences the vote.
Here are a few ways to gauge if one buyer is dominating a market on Polymarket (or similar prediction markets). While direct user identity is not visible, here are several indirect signals to look for: deliberate distortion of prediction market.
Given that it is easy to detect and is not a widely followed metric, deliberate distortion is unlikely.
1. Disproportionate Liquidity Contribution
If one side of the market (e.g., "Yes" or "No") has significantly more liquidity, it could indicate that a single large trader has staked heavily on that outcome.
How to Spot:
Check the market liquidity pools. If the liquidity is unusually high and skewed toward one outcome, it may suggest the involvement of a dominant buyer.
2. Price Manipulation Patterns
Look for sudden and large movements in the odds without external news events justifying it. This may indicate that one trader is buying in bulk to manipulate the market price in their favor. How to Spot: Monitor price volatility. If the price moves sharply up or down only to revert soon after, it might signal a single buyer testing liquidity or influencing prices temporarily.
3. Large Orders/Trade Size
On decentralized markets like Polymarket, every trade is public on the blockchain. You can analyze transaction history to see if large orders are coming from one address or if a pattern of repeated, sizable trades emerges.
How to Spot:
Use Etherscan or block explorers linked to Polymarket to track trades.
If most liquidity is added or removed by a single wallet address, it might suggest market domination.
4. Order Book Depth and Imbalance
If you have access to the order book, a skewed book where one side has an overwhelming depth compared to the other is a strong signal of one-sided market dominance.
How to Spot: Compare the number of offers on the "Yes" side vs. "No" side. An unbalanced order book could indicate one participant is dominating a position.
5. Wallet Address Monitoring
If you suspect a dominant buyer, you can monitor specific wallet addresses on Polymarket’s underlying blockchain (like Polygon or Ethereum).
How to Spot:
Use tools like Nansen or Dune Analytics to track whale behavior and token flows across addresses.
Check if one address is repeatedly interacting with the market in question or moving large amounts of USDC to Polymarket liquidity pools.
6. Analyze Market History and Entry Times
Look at when the majority of liquidity or trades occurred. If large trades happen during off-hours (low market activity), it may indicate one player is influencing prices when fewer traders are active.
How to Spot: Use tools like Dune Analytics to visualize trade activity by hour or over time.
7. Price Stickiness Despite News or Events
If the odds do not shift despite major events (or do so more slowly than expected), this may indicate that a dominant trader is maintaining liquidity and preventing the market from moving freely.
These methods rely on tracking public blockchain data and analyzing liquidity patterns. Combining several indicators will provide the clearest picture.
These methods rely on tracking public blockchain data and analyzing liquidity patterns. Combining several indicators will provide the clearest picture.
Yikes, all done on bitcoin? I am not really comfortable with the whole bitcoin idea.
Could all be a scam? Isn't Trump now flogging bitcoin?
Scam or not, I would still be concerned about collecting on a bet in this market. If both sides claim victory, do you collect?
Also, this may not be a good election forecast tool. If those using bitcoin are primarily Trump leaning, there maybe some confidence bias.
Last edited by Bob Gillanders; Monday, 14th October, 2024, 06:28 AM.
Yikes, all done on bitcoin? I am not really comfortable with the whole bitcoin idea.
Could all be a scam? Isn't Trump now flogging bitcoin?
Scam or not, I would still be concerned about collecting on a bet in this market. If both sides claim victory, do you collect?
Also, this may not be a good election forecast tool. If those using bitcoin are primarily Trump leaning, there maybe some confidence bias.
Hi Bob,
The Bitcoin idea is based on the concept of a completely automated transaction system that has numerous volunteer servers storing the same ledger of transactions so that the system can not be hacked or taken down by compromising only one server, as thousands of other servers must also be compromised to alter a transaction.
These are known as decentralized systems. The source code is open source for all to see, and trust is established when outside code auditors verify that the code behaves as advertised.
That is where the basis of trust is derived: trust in peer-reviewed technology that is open source for anyone to verify for themselves.
Polymarkets.com is a decentralized system that has processed billions of dollars worth of digital currency, and transaction settlement is fully automated. When a new market is proposed to bet on, such as the outcome of the election, a smart contract is added to the platform with the rules of the settlement baked into the code. this code is scrutinized and reviewed by the participants in the platform, and if, for example, an outcome such as both candidates of an election passing away before the election, the funds would be automatically returned and the contract canceled.
It is certainly not a "scam," and crypto is now embraced by people of all kinds of different political persuasions and has nothing to do with Trump other than Trump changing his mindset and is now one of the billions that have woken up to the real scam of centralized governments stealing your assets by diluting them via continually printing money that cryptos were originally designed to counter with a set supply.
El Salvador adopted bitcoin as legal tender and, unlike other Central American counterparts, enjoys a very robust economy, relatively speaking.
I am amused that you suspect this concept is a "scam" while you are perfectly ok with a hidden tax in the form of inflation that no one voted for. Bitcoin
was anywhere from 11k-30k in 2020 and stabilized in 2024 to between 55k and 65K. Meanwhile, a big Mac that cost $4.89 in 2020 today is $5.69. Someone
who left their money in the bank for the last four years saw an approximate 25% devaluation in their purchasing power.
So, who is "scamming" who Bob? Bitcoin has outperformed almost every asset, a fully automated asset controlled by no one.
This platform has been very predictive of many events by effectively crowd-sourcing sentiment from very diverse groups of people from all sides.
Last edited by Sid Belzberg; Monday, 14th October, 2024, 12:19 PM.
The Kamala Harris Fox News Interview was an unmitigated disaster.
I am sure you will not be surprised that I thought Kamala did very well in her Fox News Interview.
Hopefully she broke thru to some of the Fox audience.
Whereas, I hear that Donald is struggling with his interviews.
I am sure you will not be surprised that I thought Kamala did very well in her Fox News Interview.
Hopefully she broke thru to some of the Fox audience.
Whereas, I hear that Donald is struggling with his interviews.
I remain skeptical that polymarket is a good election predictor for reasons I have already stated.
Exactly eight years ago, on October 18th, 2016, here is what your venerated MSM, the New York Times, were predicting based on their "polls." And you think decentralized systems controlled by no one that simply output is less predictive???? So here is what MSM propaganda looks like that Has ZERO to do with reality and everything to do with propaganda
Exactly eight years ago, on October 18th, 2016, here is what your venerated MSM, the New York Times, were predicting based on their "polls." And you think decentralized systems controlled by no one that simply output is less predictive???? So here is what MSM propaganda looks like that Has ZERO to do with reality and everything to do with propaganda
Sid, you really have fallen far in your logical reasoning.
You go into a casino and go to the craps table. You make a bet and pick up the 2 dice. It is mathematically proven that you have a 1 in 36 chance of rolling snake-eyes (a 1 on both dice). Nevertheless, you roll snake-eyes. Your probability of rolling snake-eyes again is still 1 in 36.
You cannot ever prove that the NY Times was wrong in their assertion of a 91% chance of Hillary winning that night. If there had been 100 separate elections on 100 planet Earths that were alike in all respects on that election night, 91 of them might have elected Hillary as President.
We got stuck with one of the 9 times Trump wins out of the hundred.
and just like the dice math, the NY Times probability COULD HAVE BEEN absolutely correct.
by the way, 91% chance of sunshine tomorrow. Maybe it will rain all day LOL.
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