Chippawa open chess tournament, May 02, 03

[Vlad Drkulec]

50,000 dead implies about 7.1 million people infected based on the 0.7 percent fatality rate they are seeing in South Korea. From what I can see with everything shut down we will probably see a lower rate in Canada as we are farther down the experience curve and we can learn from the mistakes in Europe and Wuhan China.

[Bob Gillanders]

I found a live global counter for Coronavirus.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgylp3Td1Bw

When I posted it was 170,370 cases global.
Canada. 341 cases, 1 death, 11 recovered.

[Erik Malmsten]

Erik, how did you arrive at your 50,000 dead number? Did you get it from some news report or video clip?
Is that a number for Canada, USA, or a global number?

I consider my prediction of 50,000 deaths in the US to be conservative.The present total of deaths in the world has passed 5,800, so I multiplied it by 10. The number of cases in Europe has surpassed China. And it will be huge in the US.

On Friday the New York Times reported a CDC modelling of 160 million cases in the US with 2.4 million hospitalized and a minimum 200,000 deaths (0.1% deaths. Italy 27,747 cases with 1,809 dead, a 6.5% death rate.) The 2009 Swine flu initially had 285,000 cases with 12,400 initial deaths, but 75,000 when include long-term deaths. On Feb. 26, Dr. James Lawlor, U of Nebraska, guessed 86 million cases, 4.8 million hospitalized and 480,000 deaths.

Cross border travellers will bring thousand of cases to Canada. But I predict under 1,000 deaths in Canada.

[Bob Gillanders]

I consider my prediction of 50,000 deaths in the US to be conservative.The present total of deaths in the world has passed 5,800, so I multiplied it by 10. The number of cases in Europe has surpassed China. And it will be huge in the US.

On Friday the New York Times reported a CDC modelling of 160 million cases in the US with 2.4 million hospitalized and a minimum 200,000 deaths (0.1% deaths. Italy 27,747 cases with 1,809 dead, a 6.5% death rate.) The 2009 Swine flu initially had 285,000 cases with 12,400 initial deaths, but 75,000 when include long-term deaths. On Feb. 26, Dr. James Lawlor, U of Nebraska, guessed 86 million cases, 4.8 million hospitalized and 480,000 deaths.

Cross border travellers will bring thousand of cases to Canada. But I predict under 1,000 deaths in Canada.

Thanks Erik. The New York Times model gives a hospitalization rate of 1.5% ( 2.4/160) which seems a lot more realistic than the 20% rate which I heard last week. At 20%, any health care system would be easily overrun and devolve into an apocalyptic scenario.

I too predict Canada will come out of this crisis much better than USA.

[Hans Jung]

The US has just gone ahead of China and Italy in total cases.

[Erik Malmsten]

The US has just gone ahead of China and Italy in total cases.

And that is with a limited amount of test kits. New Orleans is a new growing area with it hitting those who partied on the streets for Mardi Gras. No outdoor chess, please.

[Aris Marghetis]

And the States has one QUARTER the population of China. And at least one southern Governor TURNED OVER municipal Social Distancing directives. So it's gonna be even worse there.

[Hans Jung]

And that is with a limited amount of test kits. New Orleans is a new growing area with it hitting those who partied on the streets for Mardi Gras. No outdoor chess, please.

Im doing email chess now. Wanna game?

[Brad Thomson]

Im doing email chess now. Wanna game?

Only if you promise to read your emails blindfolded. :)

[Hans Jung]

Only if you promise to read your emails blindfolded. :)

chuckle, chuckle

[Halldor P. Palsson]

If the world has not ended i hope to be playing in the Arnprior Open that weekend. Good times.

[Brad Thomson]

If the world has not ended...

I am not sure of your intent Halldor, but I do think that all of us should be using the word "if" rather than the word "when" in this context. Everyone seems to think that this is overblown, but what if it is under-blown? We simply must assume the worst case scenario just in case it is the true case scenario. We must risk overreacting to make sure that we do not under-react. The world will not end, but homo-sapien civilization is in terrible danger, and it could certainly end. Politicians and "experts" tell us not to panic or be in fear!? It seems to me that fear and panic are fully appropriate and necessary, lest we not be motivated to take the situation seriously. We are still very early in this process, it is only going to keep getting worse. Mankind is at a crossroads, I do not like his chances.

[Erik Malmsten]

I am not sure of your intent Halldor, but I do think that all of us should be using the word "if" rather than the word "when" in this context. Everyone seems to think that this is overblown, but what if it is under-blown? We simply must assume the worst case scenario just in case it is the true case scenario. We must risk overreacting to make sure that we do not under-react. The world will not end, but homo-sapien civilization is in terrible danger, and it could certainly end. Politicians and "experts" tell us not to panic or be in fear!? It seems to me that fear and panic are fully appropriate and necessary, lest we not be motivated to take the situation seriously. We are still very early in this process, it is only going to keep getting worse. Mankind is at a crossroads, I do not like his chances.

There may not be local chess tournaments (without seniors) til July. I expect that the virus will last a year till herd immunity and vacines will stop it. Til then it will spread through India, Africa and, maybe at worse, kill 10% of the population. Will there be political economic changes? Riots? An increase in dictatorships? Will the US Presidential election be postponed? Will trade with China be decreased? I expect business will rev up and continue to use up the resources and destroy the climate. Then we will feel more waves of hurricane floods and new viruses. But, somehow, like the Ice Age, some groups of people survive. But will they still play chess?

[Bob Armstrong]

Hi Erik:

Won't say you're a tad pessimistic, because a lot of what you say is possible.

But I think you need to socialize a bit - we'll get our coffee visits back on ASAP!!

Bob A

[Bob Gillanders]

Hi Erik:

Won't say your a tad pessimistic, because a lot of what you say is possible.

But I think you need to socialize a bit - we'll get our coffee visits back on ASAP!!

Bob A

10% of the population!! Wow, Erik's numbers have escalated quickly.
You guys must have fascinating conversation over coffee.
But maybe Erik should stick to decaf.