50,000 dead implies about 7.1 million people infected based on the 0.7 percent fatality rate they are seeing in South Korea. From what I can see with everything shut down we will probably see a lower rate in Canada as we are farther down the experience curve and we can learn from the mistakes in Europe and Wuhan China.
Chippawa open chess tournament, May 02, 03
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I found a live global counter for Coronavirus.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgylp3Td1Bw
When I posted it was 170,370 cases global.
Canada. 341 cases, 1 death, 11 recovered.
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Originally posted by Bob Gillanders View Post
Erik, how did you arrive at your 50,000 dead number? Did you get it from some news report or video clip?
Is that a number for Canada, USA, or a global number?
On Friday the New York Times reported a CDC modelling of 160 million cases in the US with 2.4 million hospitalized and a minimum 200,000 deaths (0.1% deaths. Italy 27,747 cases with 1,809 dead, a 6.5% death rate.) The 2009 Swine flu initially had 285,000 cases with 12,400 initial deaths, but 75,000 when include long-term deaths. On Feb. 26, Dr. James Lawlor, U of Nebraska, guessed 86 million cases, 4.8 million hospitalized and 480,000 deaths.
Cross border travellers will bring thousand of cases to Canada. But I predict under 1,000 deaths in Canada.
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Originally posted by Erik Malmsten View Post
I consider my prediction of 50,000 deaths in the US to be conservative.The present total of deaths in the world has passed 5,800, so I multiplied it by 10. The number of cases in Europe has surpassed China. And it will be huge in the US.
On Friday the New York Times reported a CDC modelling of 160 million cases in the US with 2.4 million hospitalized and a minimum 200,000 deaths (0.1% deaths. Italy 27,747 cases with 1,809 dead, a 6.5% death rate.) The 2009 Swine flu initially had 285,000 cases with 12,400 initial deaths, but 75,000 when include long-term deaths. On Feb. 26, Dr. James Lawlor, U of Nebraska, guessed 86 million cases, 4.8 million hospitalized and 480,000 deaths.
Cross border travellers will bring thousand of cases to Canada. But I predict under 1,000 deaths in Canada.
I too predict Canada will come out of this crisis much better than USA.
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Originally posted by Halldor P. Palsson View PostIf the world has not ended...
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Originally posted by Brad Thomson View Post
I am not sure of your intent Halldor, but I do think that all of us should be using the word "if" rather than the word "when" in this context. Everyone seems to think that this is overblown, but what if it is under-blown? We simply must assume the worst case scenario just in case it is the true case scenario. We must risk overreacting to make sure that we do not under-react. The world will not end, but homo-sapien civilization is in terrible danger, and it could certainly end. Politicians and "experts" tell us not to panic or be in fear!? It seems to me that fear and panic are fully appropriate and necessary, lest we not be motivated to take the situation seriously. We are still very early in this process, it is only going to keep getting worse. Mankind is at a crossroads, I do not like his chances.
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Hi Erik:
Won't say you're a tad pessimistic, because a lot of what you say is possible.
But I think you need to socialize a bit - we'll get our coffee visits back on ASAP!!
Bob ALast edited by Bob Armstrong; Sunday, 29th March, 2020, 01:30 PM.
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Originally posted by Bob Armstrong View PostHi Erik:
Won't say your a tad pessimistic, because a lot of what you say is possible.
But I think you need to socialize a bit - we'll get our coffee visits back on ASAP!!
Bob A
You guys must have fascinating conversation over coffee.
But maybe Erik should stick to decaf.
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