Can Biden win?

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  • #61
    Originally posted by Bob Gillanders View Post

    Maybe that's because there are 29% more Democrats than Republicans. LOL

    Anyway, it goes without saying I disagree with all of your comments.

    I would like to see them both on Joe Rogan.
    I would only like to see a debate if Daniel Dale does real time fact checking. On Twitter today someone suggested that they show Dale in a Picture-in-a-picture overlay with him holding one of two signs: truth or lie - raising the appropriate sign whenever some statement is made. I don't know if he can fact check that quickly (real time) but that sure would set the stage.
    He has been fact checking Trump for years and I believe has extended that to Biden and Harris when their ticket was announced...

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...es/ar-BB18vTaM

    Comment


    • #62
      Originally posted by Vlad Drkulec View Post
      'Fraud': Mainstream polls use 29% more Democrats than Republicans

      https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/f...an-republicans

      In 2016, aggregate polling had Hillary up by 3.2 points. She won the popular vote by 2.1 points. Polling was accurate to within 1.1 points: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...491.html#polls

      "Newcomers to polling sometimes assume that if you are asking Americans questions about politics, it’s only fair to include an equal number of Republicans and Democrats. While this notion makes some sense on the surface, it’s based on a misunderstanding of what polling is intended to do. The goal of a national political survey isn’t to artificially even the playing field. It’s to represent groups in their actual proportions within the country. And a wide range of evidence shows that there are more Democrats than Republicans in the United States today.

      Gold-standard, nonpartisan surveys have found for decades that more U.S. adults identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party than the Republican Party – whether these surveys take place under GOP or Democratic presidential administrations. That is the finding of two of the highest-quality surveys that use nationally representative data collected through in-person interviews: the General Social Survey and the American National Election Studies. It’s also the result obtained by numerous other reputable surveys that poll Americans by telephone or online using randomly selected samples of adults, including those done by us here at Pew Research Center, as well as those done by Gallup, Fox News, Kaiser Family Foundation and The Associated Press-NORC."

      https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...and-democrats/

      Here are the most recent polls for which I can find the demographic data:

      The latest Gallup poll had Trump's approval at -14 with 29% Democrats and 33% Republicans: https://news.gallup.com/poll/320303/...-approval.aspx

      The latest Politico/Morning Consulst had Trump's approval at -22 with 49% Democrats and 36% Republicans: https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp..._RVs_v1_LM.pdf

      The latest Reuters/Ipsos had Trump's approval at -14 with 47% Democrats and 37% Republicans: https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/...09_16_2020.pdf

      The latest CNBC had Trump at -10 approval with 48% Democrats and 41% Republicans: https://changeresearch.com/wp-conten...-13_-9_4-6.pdf

      This Washingtonexaminer link seems to support only two polls because they only poll likely voters. Rasmussen only shows its demographics to people who pay for it, and McLaughlin has Trump's approval at -5. The latest Quinnipiac poll only polls likely voters (although it doesn't appear to have demographic information), and has Trump's approval at -10, which is 1 point worse than the aggregate: https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/u...020_udmp37.pdf

      Across these 5 polls with demographic information, there's an average of 41.2% Democrats and 36% Republicans, with an average approval of -13. That's actually worse than the aggregate, and even if you were to even out the number of Democrats and Republicans, it'd still be around the same as the aggregate. Does this actually mean anything? No, it's just some data that I found from looking at a few of the most recent polls. Would I ever cite this as proof of anything regarding polling in general? No, because looking at a few polls and ignoring hundreds of others would be an absurd methodology that only someone who wants to reach a specific conclusion would do.

      Also, it says that there's an 8 point difference compared to if there were an equal number of Democrats and Republicans: "Among the general public, recent Pew Research Center telephone surveys find that Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents outnumber Republicans and Republican leaners by about 7 percentage points, similar to what the 2018 General Social Survey found." Hmm, I wonder why they found that number when looking at polls that use random sampling...

      As an aside, the most recent Fox News poll showed that whether you're a Democrat, Republican, approve or disapprove of Trump, likeliness to avoid voting due to COVID concerns is basically identical across the board: https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.c...13-Release.pdf
      Last edited by Lucas Davies; Wednesday, 16th September, 2020, 09:27 PM.

      Comment


      • #63
        Originally posted by Bob Gillanders View Post

        Maybe that's because there are 29% more Democrats than Republicans. LOL

        Anyway, it goes without saying I disagree with all of your comments.

        I would like to see them both on Joe Rogan.
        You can disagree with my comments but when Trump wins remember that I predicted it when your polls said Biden was leading by double digits. There are not 29% more Democrats. Do you really think that Biden is going to hang on by holding rallies with six media members versus Trump's thousands.

        Comment


        • #64
          Originally posted by Vlad Drkulec View Post

          You can disagree with my comments but when Trump wins remember that I predicted it when your polls said Biden was leading by double digits. There are not 29% more Democrats. Do you really think that Biden is going to hang on by holding rallies with six media members versus Trump's thousands.
          Vlad, you are missing the main point of my posts. I do NOT have confidence that Biden will win. I am very critical of the polls, mainly because national polls are a waste of time since the votes are by state. According to my calculations, Biden gets to 258 if you believe the polls, but has trouble gets more than that. Which means that Trump wins. But an update, Maine, one of those 2 oddball states where not all the electoral college votes goes to 1 candidate, Biden nows leads by 9 points in that 1 district that goes Red. So now Biden should get to 259 okay. That is actually quite important because now 11 votes from Arizona now puts him over the top to 270. Yippee.

          But even getting to the 259 is in jeopardy due to cheating by the Trump forces. Besides all the voting suppression tactics employed by the Republicans, add the efforts of the Postmaster General to slow down the mail, puts everything into jeopardy.

          Comment


          • #65
            Hi Bob G:

            I agree with your analysis ..... in 2016 I won a coffee bet by betting that Trump was going to win (I supported Hillary, but figured she was going to lose).

            This year I'm still leaving my bet on Trump on the table, though I do think it is dicier for him with Biden, and the events since 2016, than it was with Hillary.

            But here's my over-riding concern:

            1. Biden wins the Electoral College Vote;
            2. Trump refuses to concede, claims voter fraud, and launches a court action to get a ruling the election results are nullified.
            3. While the court dithers, Trump claims Presidential Privilege to continue as President until the court ruling.
            4. Biden counter-claims that the results are adequately supported, and that as putative winner, he should take over the presidency right away.
            5. The right and left citizen groups square off in the streets, and it is not going to be pretty.

            Have I got a reasonable prediction here? Is there anything in the USA Constitution that would govern this? Are there any precedent USA Court Decisions from the past?

            Bob A

            Comment


            • #66
              Originally posted by Bob Armstrong View Post
              Hi Bob G:

              I agree with your analysis ..... in 2016 I won a coffee bet by betting that Trump was going to win (I supported Hillary, but figured she was going to lose).
              Wow, it must have taken at least 3 sugars to swallow that bitter coffee. I can predict a lost for the home team (aka. Toronto Maple Leafs) but I would never place a bet.
              I got the 2016 election wrong, although I did sit on the fence until the last minute. I figured Hilary would win at least a couple of close races, but didn't.

              Anyway, a few comments about your 2020 scenario. Although all the idiot media people blather away and declare so and so a winner, it ain't so. Each state actually gives the vote to electoral college voters, actual real people who support the winning candidate. Each state has so many days (it varies) to certify the results and select the electoral college voters. Then sometime in December, the electoral college voters actually vote. Again various rules apply depending on state laws, but in some cases they are free to change their votes.

              The President's term does not end until January 20 of the next year at NOON. So Trump is still President until Noon on Jan 20, 2021.

              Comment


              • #67
                Originally posted by Victor Plotkin View Post
                According to marathonbet.com (my favorite betting site): Trump - 1.83, Biden - 2.02. Which reflects chances: Trump - about 54%. Biden - 46%.
                It should be reflecting what the bookmaker believes what he needs to offer to balance his betting book.

                Comment


                • #68
                  Originally posted by Bob Gillanders View Post

                  Vlad, you are missing the main point of my posts. I do NOT have confidence that Biden will win. I am very critical of the polls, mainly because national polls are a waste of time since the votes are by state. According to my calculations, Biden gets to 258 if you believe the polls, but has trouble gets more than that. Which means that Trump wins. But an update, Maine, one of those 2 oddball states where not all the electoral college votes goes to 1 candidate, Biden nows leads by 9 points in that 1 district that goes Red. So now Biden should get to 259 okay. That is actually quite important because now 11 votes from Arizona now puts him over the top to 270. Yippee.

                  But even getting to the 259 is in jeopardy due to cheating by the Trump forces. Besides all the voting suppression tactics employed by the Republicans, add the efforts of the Postmaster General to slow down the mail, puts everything into jeopardy.
                  Bob, you were correct in an earlier post that I was fooled by the Democratic primaries into thinking that most states electoral college numbers were distributed according to the popular vote in that state. It only happens in the primaries like you said, except for Maine and Nebraska.

                  Joe Biden needs to get way beyond 270 to avoid Trump sitting in Joe's chair. The very worst scenario possible has Joe Biden getting exactly 270 electoral votes. Trump will NEVER allow that to stand.

                  By the way, there was a Supreme Court ruling this summer (just a few weeks ago I think) that prohibits Electoral College electors from voting from anyone else but who they are supposed to vote for. So that actual vote is now a true formality.

                  Comment


                  • #69
                    Originally posted by Bob Gillanders View Post

                    Vlad, you are missing the main point of my posts. I do NOT have confidence that Biden will win. I am very critical of the polls, mainly because national polls are a waste of time since the votes are by state. According to my calculations, Biden gets to 258 if you believe the polls, but has trouble gets more than that. Which means that Trump wins. But an update, Maine, one of those 2 oddball states where not all the electoral college votes goes to 1 candidate, Biden nows leads by 9 points in that 1 district that goes Red. So now Biden should get to 259 okay. That is actually quite important because now 11 votes from Arizona now puts him over the top to 270. Yippee.

                    But even getting to the 259 is in jeopardy due to cheating by the Trump forces. Besides all the voting suppression tactics employed by the Republicans, add the efforts of the Postmaster General to slow down the mail, puts everything into jeopardy.
                    The greatest voter suppression is being carried out by the Dems and their media water carriers. Those who believe the Dems believe in the lockdowns and are afraid of getting covid. They will not vote if they think that it will lead to their deaths. Many of them think that way.

                    Comment


                    • #70
                      Originally posted by Bob Armstrong View Post

                      Have I got a reasonable prediction here? Is there anything in the USA Constitution that would govern this? Are there any precedent USA Court Decisions from the past?

                      Bob A
                      No, this is not reasonable. Trump will win. It will not be close in the electoral college. The polls are undercounting Republican support because the Republicans don't trust pollsters.

                      Comment


                      • #71
                        Originally posted by Vlad Drkulec View Post

                        The greatest voter suppression is being carried out by the Dems and their media water carriers. Those who believe the Dems believe in the lockdowns and are afraid of getting covid. They will not vote if they think that it will lead to their deaths. Many of them think that way.
                        Vlad, I am trying to follow along with your logic. You are claiming that the Dems are suppressing the vote by scaring away voters from the polls with the whole COVID thing! Is that what you are saying?

                        Comment


                        • #72
                          Originally posted by Bob Gillanders View Post

                          Vlad, I am trying to follow along with your logic. You are claiming that the Dems are suppressing the vote by scaring away voters from the polls with the whole COVID thing! Is that what you are saying?
                          The Democrats are UNINTENTIONALLY suppressing the vote by scaring away their own voters who are more likely to be afraid of catching Covid because they believe they are in greater danger than they are.

                          The death of RBG is going to be an interesting wild card in all this. I suspect that there are going to be many shoes to drop between now and November 3rd. Trump is going to have to fill that seat because the election will likely come down to the Supreme Court and a 4-4 decision just won't cut it.

                          Comment


                          • #73
                            People are irrationally afraid of COVID in some cases. I am aware of people leaving jobs that pay fairly well and taking jobs as a janitor at half of their normal salary because they are afraid of public contact and catching COVID. It might make sense for someone older but we are talking very young people.

                            Comment


                            • #74
                              Originally posted by Vlad Drkulec View Post

                              The Democrats are UNINTENTIONALLY suppressing the vote by scaring away their own voters who are more likely to be afraid of catching Covid because they believe they are in greater danger than they are.
                              The term "voter suppression" implies an intentional effort to suppress the vote. So it is good to see that you acknowledge that doesn't apply here. Asking people to wear masks to fight COVID in light of the global death toll is just good public health policy. Pretending it is all just a hoax, or that we can go back to normal before a vaccine is available, is dangerous.

                              Of course, voters have the option of voting by mail. But here, Trump appointed Postmaster General has taken steps to slow the mail service. Now that truly is voter suppression.

                              Comment


                              • #75
                                Originally posted by Bob Gillanders View Post

                                The term "voter suppression" implies an intentional effort to suppress the vote. So it is good to see that you acknowledge that doesn't apply here. Asking people to wear masks to fight COVID in light of the global death toll is just good public health policy. Pretending it is all just a hoax, or that we can go back to normal before a vaccine is available, is dangerous.

                                Of course, voters have the option of voting by mail. But here, Trump appointed Postmaster General has taken steps to slow the mail service. Now that truly is voter suppression.
                                Just because something isn't intentional, doesn't mean it isn't happening. The biggest act of Democrat voter suppression is picking Joe Biden as the candidate rather than someone like Bernie Sanders who could actually communicate without lapsing into incoherent word salad.

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