Can Biden win?

[Bob Gillanders]

Just because something isn't intentional, doesn't mean it isn't happening. The biggest act of Democrat voter suppression is picking Joe Biden as the candidate rather than someone like Bernie Sanders who could actually communicate without lapsing into incoherent word salad.

Bernie Sanders is certainly a better communicator, but I have been pleasantly surprised by Joe Biden.
Maybe AOC will pick Bernie as her running mate in 2024.

[Bob Gillanders]

Can Biden win? 270 electoral college votes needed to win.

Total - lead > 7 points = 239 - lower limit
Total - lead > 5 points = 259 - add Nevada, New Hampshire, Wisconsin
Biden need just 11 more votes.
Best chances - just needs one of:
Arizona 11
North Carolina 15
Pennsylvania 20

Total where Biden leads in polls - 305 - upper limit

[Alvah Mayo]

Trump will win re-election. If not in the Electoral College, then by a 26-23 (as it now stands) vote in the House of Representatives or a 6-3 vote at the Supreme Court. Biden faces all the same hurdles Gore had in 2000 and he, like Gore, will be unable to "run the table".

[Vlad Drkulec]

Can Biden win? 270 electoral college votes needed to win.

Total - lead > 7 points = 239 - lower limit
Total - lead > 5 points = 259 - add Nevada, New Hampshire, Wisconsin
Biden need just 11 more votes.
Best chances - just needs one of:
Arizona 11
North Carolina 15
Pennsylvania 20

Total where Biden leads in polls - 305 - upper limit

Biden is going to lose Minnesota.

The Republicans haven't won Minnesota in 48 years.

[Bob Gillanders]

My forecast has changed a little.
Biden should get between 223 and 323 electoral college votes.
He needs 270 to win, so too close to call.

My lower limit includes all states where Biden leads >7 points.
Michigan has slipped a little to 6.8 points, so lower limit drops from 239 to 223.

My upper limit includes all states where Biden leads in the polls.
Ohio has gone from Trump lead to Biden lead by 1point, so upper limit now up to 323.

BTW, Minnesota looks solid at +9 points.

If we include states where Biden leads by 5 points, then 223 + 36 = 259.
Biden still needs 11 votes, from either Arizona, North Carolina, Ohio, or Pennsylvania.
Any one of those gets to 270.

Of course, I never include Florida even though Joe has a lead.

[Vlad Drkulec]

Of course, I never include Florida even though Joe has a lead.

The last couple of polls have shown Trump to be leading in Florida. Everything is still within the margins of error but there has been a seventeen point shift from Biden to Trump from July to September in Florida. I don't think Florida is going to be as close as it was last time.

[Neil Frarey]

Prior to 1983, social security benefits were not taxed. In 1983, Joe Biden voted for a bill to tax social security - and it passed. In 1993, Joe Biden doubled down and voted to raise the percentage of social security benefits taxed from 50% to 85% - and his vote was the decisive vote.

Joe Biden single handedly reduced the standard of living of millions of seniors who run out of money before they run out of month. Joe Biden does not have the back of the American worker - or retirees.

And now he brags (in the Dem platform) about hitting the middle class with a massive tax increase. He is taking the couple filing jointly making 78k per year combined from a 12% rate to 25%. That is a 108% increase in income taxes for that couple. Adds up to an additional $10,140.00 annually to the IRS in Biden's plan.

Biden is controlled obviously by the Marxists in his party - and he is no friend to retirees or the middle class working family.

Look at Biden's voting record, folks. It is abysmal for seniors and the middle class.

[Bob Gillanders]

The last couple of polls have shown Trump to be leading in Florida. Everything is still within the margins of error but there has been a seventeen point shift from Biden to Trump from July to September in Florida. I don't think Florida is going to be as close as it was last time.

This claim that the Florida polls have shifted in Trump's favour by 17 points in last 2 months seems totally implausible to me. You might want to check your sources.
According to 538 Florida polls, June 24 - Biden +7.4, now Biden +1.8. A shift to Trump of 5.6 points. If you did find a poll with a 17 point shift it is definitely an outlier.

Your source is?

[Vlad Drkulec]

September 23 ABC poll. In July Biden was plus 13.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/#!

Whichever poll you are using the momentum swing is unmistakable.

[Tom O'Donnell]

If I pay you to vote that's illegal. If I pay your fine so you are now eligible to vote that's not illegal. Interesting.

[Victor Plotkin]

According to marathonbet.com Biden has small advantage now, something like 53%-47%. If we translate these numbers to chess rating, his chances are similar to chances of stronger player to win a single game match (no draws) if rating gap is 20 points.

Something like 2870 for Biden, 2850 for Trump. Or maybe 500 for Biden, 480 for Trump.

4 years ago, a day before the election, marathonbet gave 80% chances to Clinton, which was like 250 points rating gap.

[Bob Gillanders]

September 23 ABC poll. In July Biden was plus 13.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/#!

Whichever poll you are using the momentum swing is unmistakable.

Florida polls - Trump vs. Biden

Thanks for the link. I can see the ABC poll at Trump +4 in September.
But I don't see an ABC poll in July, instead I see a Quinnipiac poll of Biden +13.
So, the swing is +17 towards Trump.

BUT, the RCP average poll for September is Biden +1.3
and the RCP average poll for July is Biden +6.8
So, the swing towards Trump is 5.5.

To get that +17 point swing you compared the most favourable poll for Biden in July vs. the most favourable poll for Trump in September.
Both of those polls are obviously outliers from different pollsters. Always better when comparing apples to apples.

But yah, definitely a swing in Trump's favour.

[Bob Gillanders]

Or maybe 500 for Biden, 480 for Trump.

Yes, that's more like it.

[Bob Gillanders]

If I pay you to vote that's illegal. If I pay your fine so you are now eligible to vote that's not illegal. Interesting.

The fines you speak of were simply just another voter suppression tactic used by Republicans in Florida, clearly not in the spirit of the new law.
Helping somebody pay there bills is clearly not illegal.
If I pay your bus fair to help you get to the poll, legal.
If I pay you $10 to vote a certain way, illegal. But since it is secret ballot, how do you enforce such an arrangement?

[Tom O'Donnell]

The fines you speak of were simply just another voter suppression tactic used by Republicans in Florida, clearly not in the spirit of the new law.
Helping somebody pay there bills is clearly not illegal.
If I pay your bus fair to help you get to the poll, legal.
If I pay you $10 to vote a certain way, illegal. But since it is secret ballot, how do you enforce such an arrangement?

There are two people, call them Alex and Bill. Both have $1000 in their pocket.

Alex pays his fine. Someone comes along offering him $1000 to go vote. As you say, it's a secret ballot, he can vote for anyone, or even just spoil his ballot. He can't take the money. End result: fine paid, no money in his pocket.

Bill chooses to keep his $1000 in his pocket. Someone comes along and pays his fine. Same thing, the ballot is secret, so they can't know how he votes. End result: fine paid, $1000 still in his pocket. All because Bill had better things to do with his $1000.


In my opinion people should be allowed to accept money to vote a certain way. Maybe even be allowed to sell their ballot and have someone else fill it out.

Otherwise you have a pretty slippery slope. Maybe I pay your rent for an extra month so you stay within the state. Or perhaps buy you a bicycle so you can ride to the polls instead of walk. Both could be a lot less expensive than paying someone's fine.

When I was very little my grandparents didn't have an easy way to get to the voting booth. I don't know if this is still a thing, but the two main parties back then offered rides to the polls. My grandfather used to call up the other party (the one he wasn't voting for) and have them take my grandparents to the polls.