Can Biden win?

[Vlad Drkulec]

There are rumours that something very big is coming down from the coming declassification. I am not going to repeat the rumour, as it is quite fantastic that such a scandal is possible. If true, Biden will cry uncle and withdraw from the race.

[Dilip Panjwani]

Under Capitalism, there is "unfair, even evil, advantage". When exactly does it become unfair? What makes it evil? Is it evil to award money (in the form of royalties, tax breaks etc) to those who are innovators and are contributing to society's progress? Then again, how do we define progress? Are smartphones in the hands of everyone, even children, a form of progress? Or could it contribute to societal breakdown and lead to Big Brother and a cashless society in which everyone is under total government control? All kinds of questions!

Under Democratic Socialism, we have "legally steal" money from the rich. But if it is the law of the land, how is it stealing? Especially if the Capitalism definition is saying the rich gained an "unfair" and even "evil" advantage?

Under Libertarianism, we have "unfair exploitation". What is that? What yardstick do we use to determine it? Then we have "access to capital". What exactly is that, and should we allow unfettered access to capital for those who want to do some kind of harm or damage, for example to the environment?

If you have earned capital, you have the right to enjoy it...it should not give you the exclusive right to earn more of it...
When you make it the law of the land, stealing is ...nothing better than legal stealing....
Harming the environment (or for that matter, unfair exploitation of others), is harming others... there should be nothing complicated in agreeing on that...

[Victor Plotkin]

As of today, Trump has around 35% chances. The trend is obvious right now - Trump loses 2-3% chances a week. Now, the point is to choose the right moment...

[Joshua Guo]

As of today, Trump has around 35% chances. The trend is obvious right now - Trump loses 2-3% chances a week. Now, the point is to choose the right moment...

https://www.sportsinteraction.com/sp...tions-betting/

Currently Moneyline on Trump winning is +262 (27% chance of winning) per Sports Interaction.
Moneyline on Trump winning Michigan is +324 (23% chance of winning).

I think there is good value here..

[Neil Frarey]

Gallop Poll just last week ... 56% of Americans said that they are better off today than they were 4 years ago under the Obama-Biden administration.

When asked about that poll Barely There Biden ... says they should vote for Trump.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1315887926899769344

56% of Americans.

Smart.


Oct. 12th Barely There Biden campaigning in Ohio said that he is running for the Senate.

https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/stat...22121390284801

Yikes.

[Pargat Perrer]

There are rumours that something very big is coming down from the coming declassification. I am not going to repeat the rumour, as it is quite fantastic that such a scandal is possible. If true, Biden will cry uncle and withdraw from the race.

If Biden withdraws and Jim Carrey took his place, would anybody notice?

[Victor Plotkin]

https://www.sportsinteraction.com/sp...tions-betting/

Currently Moneyline on Trump winning is +262 (27% chance of winning) per Sports Interaction.
Moneyline on Trump winning Michigan is +324 (23% chance of winning).

I think there is good value here..

2.62 odds on Trump reflect 38.2%. Looks like, you calculated 1/3.62= 27.6%, which is not exactly right.

Biden with odds 1.44 has 69.4%. Sure, bookmaker has advantage, because 38.2 + 69.4 = 107.6%. To get real numbers, we should divide by 1.076.

Trump: 38.2 / 1.076 = 35.5%
Biden: 69.4 / 1.076 = 64.5 %

So, 35.5% - 64.5% is the real odds right now.

The similar approach for Michigan gives Trump around 28% there.

I am waiting for Trump with below 25% chances (odds of 4).

[Aris Marghetis]

If Biden withdraws and Jim Carrey took his place, would anybody notice?

THAT is funny! Well played!

[Vlad Drkulec]

Gallop Poll just last week ... 56% of Americans said that they are better off today than they were 4 years ago under the Obama-Biden administration.

When asked about that poll Barely There Biden ... says they should vote for Trump.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1315887926899769344

56% of Americans.

Smart.


Oct. 12th Barely There Biden campaigning in Ohio said that he is running for the Senate.

https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/stat...22121390284801

Yikes.

Biden did increase his crowd size to about a dozen if you count his campaign workers and secret service agents.

[Bob Gillanders]

The problem with this is that Sweden and Denmark and the other Scandinavian countries would reject your characterization and the Bernie myth of their status as socialist utopian economies. They are not.

First, thanks for the thoughtful reply. Much better than simply "Bernie is a communist", I do appreciate the effort.

I doubt any serious person advocated that the Scandinavian countries employing Democratic Socialism ever claimed to have achieved a utopian economy. If they did then than is simply foolish. Utopia is more a concept where perfection is achieved, likely never to be achieved in the real world. So no doubt the book has little trouble proving its title.

But Bernie and me are not claiming utopia, merely that USA should adopt some of the Democratic Socialism policies alive and well in Scandinavia.

[Bob Gillanders]

The polls don't seem to be changing very much. Overall, moving a little towards Biden in recent days.

Biden has good leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. If he wins them all, his total is 279, enough to be President.

He has leads in several other states, but not enough for anyone to get comfortable.

The effects of the postal service sabotage, voter suppression tactics, etc. are all scary wild cards.

[Vlad Drkulec]

The polls don't seem to be changing very much. Overall, moving a little towards Biden in recent days.

Biden has good leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. If he wins them all, his total is 279, enough to be President.

He has leads in several other states, but not enough for anyone to get comfortable.

The effects of the postal service sabotage, voter suppression tactics, etc. are all scary wild cards.

Biden is going to lose all four of those states. A good straw poll will be the viewership ratings for the Trump Town hall on NBC which is scheduled at the same time as the Biden Town Hall on ABC. Social media and the mainstream media are trying to suppress Hunter Biden's emails which apparently directly implicate Joe Biden in Burisma shenanigans.

The lesson for the unwashed: Don't stiff the computer shop repairing your laptop. It can have unintended consequences.

I'm not sure that this is the big October surprise yet. Apparently there is a lot there. Why would Hunter Biden allow himself to be videoed smoking crack? It really bolsters his image as a consultant that China could comfortably trust with billions of dollars.

[Tom O'Donnell]

Biden is going to lose all four of those states. A good straw poll will be the viewership ratings for the Trump Town hall on NBC which is scheduled at the same time as the Biden Town Hall on ABC. Social media and the mainstream media are trying to suppress Hunter Biden's emails which apparently directly implicate Joe Biden in Burisma shenanigans.

The lesson for the unwashed: Don't stiff the computer shop repairing your laptop. It can have unintended consequences.

I'm not sure that this is the big October surprise yet. Apparently there is a lot there. Why would Hunter Biden allow himself to be videoed smoking crack? It really bolsters his image as a consultant that China could comfortably trust with billions of dollars.

I am not sure this will make such a big difference. Without Section 230 reform, Facebook, Twitter, et al will simply delete mentions of it. Meanwhile they will claim they are platforms, serving the public interest. Government, Big Tech, so many authoritarians who believe they know how the plebes should live and what they should know.


https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/1...627520/photo/1

Cruz's point #4 is particularly damning, imo.

[Lucas Davies]

An Obama "scandal" that Trump described as the "biggest thing since Watergate" has resulted in absolutely nothing after investigation: https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/13/polit...ion/index.html

Really weird how this seems to happen every time!

[Bob Gillanders]

Biden is going to lose all four of those states.

Which 4 states?