Re: No upsets? That makes me upset!
Sorry, Bob, I'm not saying there are never upsets. After all, that would be saying that the rating system is always perfect! LOL!
But look at all the past Canadian Opens, which as you know are one big section. Probably in the top 5 or even 10 positions each year, you will not see anyone rated under 2200. Or maybe I shouldn't put an exact rating, because maybe some years 2200 was near the top rating in the tournament. So lets say you won't see anyone whose rating is not in the top 20% of ratings for the tournament.
What I'm saying is not "we can always predict the winner", but rather, "we can always predict a handful of players from which the winner will come, and the winner will 95% of the time be among those handful of players".
There can be rare exceptions to this, for example what could be called the "shooting star" player. Some young kid who's real skill level is 2200+, but who for lack of actual games is rated 1700. But the following year, that kid will be rated 2200+ and he'll never look back.
Of course, not all tournaments are like the Canadian Open. Many have sections of say 200 rating points, such as U2000 where the next section down is U1800. On a rare occasion, a low-1800s player might win that section (and would usually go dozens of similar tournaments before coming close again, unless s/he had put in a ton of work to suddenly improve). But when you have sections, you have lower prizes and lower recognition. Poker tournaments don't use sections. If you are good enough and lucky enough to win, you win the top prize and the ultimate recognition.
Bob, have you ever gone to a Canadian Open and actually thought you could win the tournament?
Originally posted by Bob Gillanders
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But look at all the past Canadian Opens, which as you know are one big section. Probably in the top 5 or even 10 positions each year, you will not see anyone rated under 2200. Or maybe I shouldn't put an exact rating, because maybe some years 2200 was near the top rating in the tournament. So lets say you won't see anyone whose rating is not in the top 20% of ratings for the tournament.
What I'm saying is not "we can always predict the winner", but rather, "we can always predict a handful of players from which the winner will come, and the winner will 95% of the time be among those handful of players".
There can be rare exceptions to this, for example what could be called the "shooting star" player. Some young kid who's real skill level is 2200+, but who for lack of actual games is rated 1700. But the following year, that kid will be rated 2200+ and he'll never look back.
Of course, not all tournaments are like the Canadian Open. Many have sections of say 200 rating points, such as U2000 where the next section down is U1800. On a rare occasion, a low-1800s player might win that section (and would usually go dozens of similar tournaments before coming close again, unless s/he had put in a ton of work to suddenly improve). But when you have sections, you have lower prizes and lower recognition. Poker tournaments don't use sections. If you are good enough and lucky enough to win, you win the top prize and the ultimate recognition.
Bob, have you ever gone to a Canadian Open and actually thought you could win the tournament?
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