Welcome To The Depression...

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Welcome To The Depression...

The beat goes on... Now our PM seems to be recognizing the seriousness of the economic situation our nation faces. The ridiculous economic update presented by his government seems to have been forgotten. The fairy tale of no deficits has been cast aside. I heard on TV last evening that the PM's official residence will be gutted and rebuilt in a two year project. I notice they didn't mention the amount which will be spent. Probably it's a blank cheque.

The Prime Minister said if his upcoming budget is defeated he will ask the Governor General for an election. Harper seems to have forgotten the part where the parliament is closed down for almost 2 months because he was afraid to face the parliament in a non confidence motion. He struts around like a Peacock threatening an election while he's afraid to face the elected members of parliament.

I can recall the Prime Ministers back to Louis St. Laurent. Of all the Prime Ministers, this one is the worst and the most undemocratic. Unlike Joe Clark, who was defeated over a budget, this Prime Minister will not face his parliament. Shut it down. Clark had the class to stand behind his principles and face his parliament for better or worse. I've always held Clark in high regard and voted for him back then.

In my opinion we, as the taxpayers and citizens of this nation, deserve better.

You folks who read this probably recall the three things I'm looking for as an end to this current market turmoil and a possibly turnaround. Namely oil at between 30 and 40 dollars a barrel, our dollar between 65 and 70 cents against the U.S. dollar and the Dow Jones reaching around 6,800.

So far the price of oil has now fallen into the mid range of 30 - 40 dollars. That's down from around 147 dollars only a few months ago. I'm not going long on oil because I can't see where the demand to even hold that price will come from. That means it could drop and at these prices a drop of 5 dollars a barrel is 15% and that's a big drop.

Opec talks of dropping production more. When they cut the production 2.2 million barrels a day, a couple of days ago, oil was at around $44. That's about 100 million dollars a DAY they are cutting. Does anyone really believe they are letting that much money go when there is no guarantee they will get that much for it in a year?

Natural gas is coming down quite nicely. With all the industry closing here in Eastern Canada I expect the prices to drop more. Large industrial users are cutting back on production. I wouldn't touch oil and/or natural gas company stock because I don't know their break even points or contracts or debt. I learned that lesson the hard way back in the early 80's, if you catch my drift. What happened was the price of oil dropped, the companies I had couldn't meet their debt and/or work commitments and they went under. Stocks went to a big ZERO. It was an apples and oranges thing. What I made on the mining stocks I lost on the oil stocks.

That's about all for this entry. No change in my depression portfolio. I normally get interested on a really bad day.

DISCLAIMER: None of what I write should be used for investment decisions. I write this stuff for entertainment. Consult a financial adviser.

[Ben Daswani]

Thread takeover vol. 3

Ruben, I know you're wondering what music I've been experiencing this week. I present a pictorial report:


Diana Ross & The Supremes Join the Temptations (1968)


Gravediggaz - 6 Feet Deep (1994)


Galaxie 500 - This Is Our Music (1990)


The Pixies - Doolittle (1989)


The Notorious B.I.G. - Ready to Die (1994)


Jefferson Airplane - Surrealistic Pillow (1967)

Awwwwwwwwwww yeah. You still bumping those fine John Denver joints? You need to expand your taste, brother man.

[Tom O'Donnell]

Re: Welcome To The Depression...

Ben,

I have been checking out some historical rap music. Did you know that George Washington was not only the father of America, but the father of rap? It's true, and here is the proof:

http://www.jibjab.com/originals/founding_fathers

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Welcome To The Depression...

Ben,

I have been checking out some historical rap music. Did you know that George Washington was not only the father of America, but the father of rap? It's true, and here is the proof:

When Ben overwhelms me with music, I know "The Right" is commenting on my political views. I've always felt Ben was a John Denver type of fan. So, it doesn't surprise me he listens to Diana Ross music. Really, the music is all that remains from the times. That and the memories. It's too bad Ben doesn't have more to offer on the actual topic. Maybe the education system isn't what it used to be. I know when I was Ben's age and went to the club in Winnipeg, politics was always a topic while the old guys played and between their games.

You haven't been commenting on the politics or the economic situation recently, Tom. These are great times. The Americans have been nationalizing banks and selling them. A Republican like Bush has been doing hugh bailouts with taxpayer dollars. I've always said if you don't like their principles today, just wait. They have others. Here in Canada we're no slouches either. The Progressive Conservative government in Newfoundland has nationalized a bunch of assets of some forestry company. The right wing government of Alberta has changed the rules mid stream for oil and gas royalties and now it appears with the hugh drop in product price and the slowdown in exploration and drilling for oil and gas, that government is reconsidering. Our right wing government in Ottawa is injecting liquidity into the system and contemplating hugh expenditures on infrastructure and auto bailouts. Spending like there is no tomorrow. Your tax dollars will be going to bail out high wage paying companies which are paying high union wages and hugh salaries and bonuses to executives. Like we always said. No worker ever made too much.

I made another addition to my Depression portfolio late yesterday. Doubled down on Transforce Inc. to average down. I paid $3.60 a share for a yield of 11.1% It's the largest "for hire" trucking company in Canada from what I understand. They are based in Quebec.

How are you spending the Depression? You haven't said recently. I can see Ben is listening to his music and I noticed someone made a terrible political comment to him in another thread.

Since I mentioned financial stuff, this comes with my usual disclaimer to consult a financial adviser before making investment decisions.

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Thread takeover vol. 3

Awwwwwwwwwww yeah. You still bumping those fine John Denver joints? You need to expand your taste, brother man.

Do you seek God?

Ben, I didn't know He was lost. Since you seem to have embraced Gawd, I will share one of my favourites with you.

I will sing
of the loving kindness
of the Lord forever...

Psalm 89:1

Different versions of the bible have different translations from the ancient writings.

[Tom O'Donnell]

Re: Welcome To The Depression...

A few days ago I was watching Canada AM. My wife likes the show, though I consider it mostly a total waste of time (entertainment to news ratio = roughly 5:1). Anyway, they were interviewing a couple of autoworkers and at one point the interviewer stopped serving up softball questions to ask something along the lines of "Autoworkers make very good wages. How would you answer those who wonder why you haven't saved money for this eventuality?" I'm afraid that the answer was a convoluted claim that because they contribute to foodbanks and prop up the economy with their spending that they deserve a bailout. I wonder what those in high-tech (e.g. Nortel) would think about the government not bailing out their companies with similar loans.

I consider it disgusting that my tax dollars are going to support people who lead unsustainable lives at salaries which are multiples of what I earn. It's not my fault that people overspend or fail to save. Over the years I have had many disagreements with "free spenders" about the role of government. I consider that more and more people will expect the government to provide greater and greater services, and that we will be forced to pay for these handouts. One of my favourite sayings is this one from George Bernard Shaw (paraphrasing): "The government that robs Peter to pay Paul can always count on the support of Paul".

Most of my recent investments are of a type a friend of mine calls "WIMPY" (relatively "safe", dividend-paying stocks). He's right. I should be doing what he's doing and go short on all sorts of companies, but it just seems too dangerous to be shorting sectors which may receive government bailouts that keep the stocks artificially propped up and their companies alive.

Over the years I have lent people money in the tens of thousands. Before I lend them a penny I ask them a lot of questions, assess their character, consider they spending patterns, etc. Of course not every loan gets repaid, but most do. If I were the government and these charlatans from GM and Chrysler showed up with hat in hand, the first thing I would do is insist that they show me a plan for restructuring their companies in a way where they wouldn't be coming back in five years for another bailout. I doubt they could do this.

If anyone out there has consumer debt they should cut back on their Christmas spending and do what I did in a store recently:

I am waiting around in the electronics part of Zellers waiting for Penny to come out of the loo. Salesman comes up to me and tells me that if I buy some useless electronic gadget X they are having a 30% off sale and I save lots of money. I tell him that if I don't buy anything I have the benefit of a 100% off sale and I save even more. He looked at me funny and walked away. I liked that. ;-)

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Welcome To The Depression...

I love those kind of "Wimpy" investments. Mostly in these times I also get a relatively safe dividend paying stock. Ones where I think the payout is sustainable. I like to look at the balance sheet as well. I'm in the habit of emailing companies, or even phoning, and asking questions. Sometimes the CFO replies. I think when times "normalize" the steady dividend stocks will come back to their historical ratio between government and corporate rates.

I buy some without dividends but they have to have something really attractive. Like no debt and cash on hand which almost equals the amount per share I pay for the stock and a good business model. Sometimes I buy a stock because I like the guy running the company and have faith that he will continue to do a good job.

I don't short stocks. My account isn't big enough. I prefer to use an ETF to short things. I buy what they call a bear ETF to short a commodity, as an example, or a bull ETF if I think a sector will do well in the short run. It's like a mutual fund with a lower MER and they trade on the exchanges. It's a gamble but a good guess brings a win. You have to know what you're doing and how to time it. Mostly, I'm a buy and hold type of investor. Anything shorter than a year is a flip. But in this market I have been doing some of it. My wife doesn't like the stock market but has put up with it for decades.

I'm kind of thinking Nortel might get a bailout but am not confident enough to buy the stock. They have a NYSE listing and I think they have to be over $1.00 to maintain the listing.

GM is a different kind of problem for the governments. It's such a big part of the economy and so much employment and taxes are generated government doesn't want to let it go. I'm driving a Chrysler and the dealership closed down about a year ago. I have to take it to Whitby for service. A pain in the butt and when I buy another one it will be from a manufacturer which is closer. If they go bankrupt I guess I'll lose my warranty.

For years I serviced the natural gas meters at one of the auto manufacturers. They use an awesome amount of natural gas and have a lot of meters. I used to spend between 1 and 2 weeks doing the service work every 3 months. Besides them I serviced a lot of the spinoff industries. Places where they made plastic grills and tires and so forth. The auto industry is Eastern Canada but the very considerable amount of fuel is Western Canada's economy. They are too big to fail. They are not too big for the government to set the wages. You might recall Trudeau used wage and price controls to limit wage increases. Actually, it was more like wage controls because I seem to recall the prices didn't raise. I was once rolled back under his guidelines. I never voted for him.

I don't know if the problems is that people won't buy cars or if the banks won't lend in this economic climate. I like to get 150,000 km's from a car but these days we do less than 10,000 a year. I'll be driving it until I'm an old man with white hair at this rate.

My computer is almost 5 years old so I'm starting to look for a new one. I want a monster with many processor chips and a fast CPU. I'll probably settle for less. The thing is this one still does everything so there is never any real rush to replace it.

[Jason Lohner]

Re: Welcome To The Depression...

The pixies... probably one of the best bands ever...

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Welcome To The Depression...

The pixies... probably one of the best bands ever...

I love the chess community. Reality doesn't exist. A proper reply to anything is breaking wind.

[Jason Lohner]

Re: Welcome To The Depression...

I love the chess community. Reality doesn't exist. A proper reply to anything is breaking wind.

If you look at what Ben is listening to he listed the pixies - doolittle album. The pixies are probably one of the most influential bands in the 80's. Basically they helped the alternative scene get out of the rut of hair metal bands ... Nirvana wouldn't have existed (they said they wrote their songs to sound like a pixies song). They also were one of the first 'loud' bands that had a woman that wasn't just 'eye candy' as a member. A very forward thinking band... Next to the pixies I would suggest listening to the sugarcubes for good 80's music.

J.Lohner


R.I.P. Troy 'T-Bag' Dixon
1981-2008

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Welcome To The Depression...

If you look at what Ben is listening to he listed the pixies - doolittle album. The pixies are probably one of the most influential bands in the 80's. Basically they helped the alternative scene get out of the rut of hair metal bands ... Nirvana wouldn't have existed (they said they wrote their songs to sound like a pixies song). They also were one of the first 'loud' bands that had a woman that wasn't just 'eye candy' as a member. A very forward thinking band... Next to the pixies I would suggest listening to the sugarcubes for good 80's music.

To tell the truth, what Ben listens to is of almost no interest to me. I'll always associate John Denver music with him.

Most of the appeal of the Pixie's for me is the years they did not perform.

Speaking of bands with women who were not "eye candy", the lead singer of the Mommas and Pappas could be considered in that category. The other woman was and is currently the only surviving member of that very popular band.

Janis Joplin, who, arguably, also was not eye candy was lead singer for at least one band before she went solo.

[Jason Lohner]

Re: Welcome To The Depression...

To tell the truth, what Ben listens to is of almost no interest to me. I'll always associate John Denver music with him.

Most of the appeal of the Pixie's for me is the years they did not perform.

Speaking of bands with women who were not "eye candy", the lead singer of the Mommas and Pappas could be considered in that category. The other woman was and is currently the only surviving member of that very popular band.

Janis Joplin, who, arguably, also was not eye candy was lead singer for at least one band before she went solo.

If you had ever heard the pixies, you would never associate him with john denver... Pixies were alternative/punk music ... mamas and the papas were 'stoner pop'... and as for Janis Joplin, I should have said band members who actually had talent. Joplin will make me take a hammer to a radio just to shut it off quicker.

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Welcome To The Depression...

If you had ever heard the pixies, you would never associate him with john denver... Pixies were alternative/punk music ... mamas and the papas were 'stoner pop'... and as for Janis Joplin, I should have said band members who actually had talent. Joplin will make me take a hammer to a radio just to shut it off quicker.

Joplin was the ultimate, even when she was three sheets to the wind, which seemed to be most of the time. Maybe you had to acquire a taste for the music and the times to really appreciate her and her music.

I notice the darling of the right, our very own Prime Minister, got an elected Senate like he wanted. He got the Senators he elected to appoint.

I notice a lot of them are non controversial. I wonder if Iggy, Jack and Gilles were asked for their approval.

Nancy Greene won something or other back when I was a kid. Duffy gave us all those unbiased news reports before he accepted the appointment. I'm sure he'll have the respect of his conservative colleagues.

Do you like Christmas Carols or are they too old fashioned? :)

Now I must run. I'm analysing a chess position without a board and don't want to lose my train of thought. Or maybe that's a train of thoughtlessness.

[Jason Lohner]

Re: Welcome To The Depression...

Joplin was the ultimate, even when she was three sheets to the wind, which seemed to be most of the time. Maybe you had to acquire a taste for the music and the times to really appreciate her and her music.

I notice the darling of the right, our very own Prime Minister, got an elected Senate like he wanted. He got the Senators he elected to appoint.

I notice a lot of them are non controversial. I wonder if Iggy, Jack and Gilles were asked for their approval.

Nancy Greene won something or other back when I was a kid. Duffy gave us all those unbiased news reports before he accepted the appointment. I'm sure he'll have the respect of his conservative colleagues.

Do you like Christmas Carols or are they too old fashioned? :)

Now I must run. I'm analysing a chess position without a board and don't want to lose my train of thought. Or maybe that's a train of thoughtlessness.

There are few bands/singers I detest more than Joplin... Perhaps Axel Rose from GnR... both have horrible voices that grate on my nerves and make me go on a destruction spree against any radio playing them... hmm same reaction I get when I hear 'inbred jed' country...

Yes I detest Christmas music... other than
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ff3aoSyYOVs

as for harper, I thought the conservatives were going for an elected senate :/

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Welcome To The Depression...

as for harper, I thought the conservatives were going for an elected senate :/

You believed him? Even after the Income Trust flip flop, you still believed him?