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Dark Knight / Le Chevalier Noir
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---- Nous avons besoin d'un traduction français!
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It's the time of year I normally have a look at my portfolio. Now I'll look at my Depression Portfolio I started during the election when the PM suggested it was time to buy stocks. Each unit has the same number of shares but I won't tell you the number. Where it's more than one unit I'll give my average cost per unit. Then I will give current market price.
2 units Transforce Inc. Cost $4.33 Value 3.49
2 units Domtar ................... 3.80 V. 2.06
2 units Chartwell Senior Housing.. 4.13 V. 4.95
1 Unit of a U.S. Motor company.. 2.83 V. 4.92 U.S. funds
I unit Belzberg Technology ...... 2.00 V. 2.05
2 units Sherritt International..... 2.22 V. 2.74
Overall I'm probably outperforming the market but still down. Or maybe I'm about even not taking into consideration some foreign exchange gains on my U.S. stock. Plus, several of them pay decent dividends.
I'd average down Domtar but there are ones I like better and that pay a dividend.
DISCLAIMER: None of what I write should be used for investment decisions. I write this stuff for entertainment. Consult a financial adviser.
The beat goes on. It's hard to read a newspaper without reading about more layoffs and unemployment.
I guess not much is being done in Canada. Our parliament is closed. Shut down so the government could not be defeated by the opposition. Shut down for the government to avoid having to face a non-confidence motion.
During this political uncertainty, it does not appear to me that Canada is a player on the world stage. Certainly not one to be taken seriously.
I've been waiting for the campaign of "shock and awe" now the holiday seaon has finished. Waiting for the government to once again bombard us on TV with the goodness and rightness of their position. It struck me the only thing missing last time was "Tokyo Rose". How the government can try to make a case 50 properly elected MP's from Quebec are not fit to be part of a governing coalition is ludicrous. Harper and his conservatives must have missed the term where the Bloc was the official opposition. After awhile it gets tiring and very boring.
I haven't done anything with my Depression Portfolio. I've been looking more at situations in the U.S. where the political situation is more stable than in Canada and the people seem to be showing more signs of hope in the anticipation of the new president. I haven't had any urge to go long on oil or natural gas yet.
DISCLAIMER: None of what I write should be used for investment decisions. I write this stuff for entertainment. Consult a financial advisor.
I added Ford Motors to the Depression portfolio today. $2.67 US. If you're thinking "YUK", an auto manufacturer, and puking on your shoes, I probably made the right decision.
I figure Ford might survive this economy and come out the other end in decent shape. Maybe a lottery ticket.
The most fun car I ever owned was a 1978 Cougar XR-7. Big engine. Very comfortable. It was also the only Ford I ever owned, although, I drove several Ford company cars. Ford often figures into fleet renewal plans.
I've been waiting for my fan club to accuse me of using a computer to analyse stocks like they figure I do with my correspondence chess games. :) Speaking of chess, I played in a Nimzo Indian thematic event a couple of years ago. The sections are finishing. I thought I'd play the section and then move on to something else. They set the first few moves and each player has one game with white and one with black against 4 opponents. I won 3 games and drew 5 with no losses. Figured that was it. The final game finished recently and I tied for 2nd place, one half point behind the winner. I guess that means I move on to the next round as the points and S/B tie break were identical. No idea when it starts.
DISCLAIMER: None of what I write should be used for investment decisions. I write this stuff for entertainment. Consult a financial advisor.
I guess today the theme is WMD. Weapons of Mass Depreciation.
Nortel filed for bankruptcy protection and will try to reorganize. I guess that's different than being bankrupt. I'm not a shareholder so won't lose. I never owned the stock. The closest I came was when it was over $100. a share. I told someone who held it that I would buy if it hit $2.00, if I still wanted it. He laughed at me. Since then Nortel has consolidated the shares on a 1 share for every 10 basis and now it's reorganizing. I always found a reason not to buy. When they trade like penny mining stocks I figure I might as well buy a penny mining stock.
Anyhow, the federal government has offered $30 million to help them come out of bankruptcy protection. My paper doesn't say if it's a loan or gift. It's a day too late and a lot short of what will be needed.
I figure the most likely scenario will be U.S. companies picking up any parts of Nortel they want for cheap and there won't be very much remaining.
Yesterday my newspaper told me the government awarded a contract for $254 million dollars to supply trucks for the military to a firm which is laying off Canadian workers in Chatham. The trucks will be built in Texas. I guess the federal government didn't notice the part where we need more manufacturing jobs.
It seems every day I open a newspaper there are articles about more layoffs by firms.
What's the difference between an investment banker and a pizza? A pizza can feed a family of 4. A joke I read somewhere.
I notice my lottery ticket is worth less. Ford Motors is one I bought as a lottery ticket. Kind of on potential. Potential is a nice word but it won't buy groceries. Capital gains buy groceries. Still, even though my timing seems to have been lousy, I don't regret the purchase - yet.
When I look at a company's balance sheet, normally I recalculate it on a formula I like better. As an example, before calculating what I think the book value per share is, I strip out the Goodwill amount. Goodwill is often the amount a company paid for something which is above the worth of the assets. If that part of the company starts doing badly the goodwill becomes impaired and has to be written down. That's the way I understand it.
The income trusts have been hammered mercilessly. They will have to pay tax in another few years and most will likely convert to dividend paying companies. The dividends are thought to be less than the distribution payouts because of the tax so they have uncertainty attached to them. Even so, as they announce they will convert many are beaten down even more. I watched one which announced yesterday. It lost about another 10 per cent.
On a brighter note, I hear more people using the word "depression" on business TV. It's a positive indicator for me. By the time that happens the end is closer. One positive indicator does not a recovery make.
Have any of you noticed what's missing from my Depression Portfolio? No banks or insurance companies. No oil and gas. Actually, Sherritt has oil. However, I bought it for the thermal coal, potash and Nickel.
DISCLAIMER: None of what I write should be used for investment decisions. I write this stuff for entertainment. Consult a financial advisor.
It is always easy to talk about past events on the market. True genius would not be to predict Nortel would tank but to profit from it. There were two definate points where buying put options with exercise dates 1-2 years in advance would have made the holders rich.
1. When the stock hit $100-$120 a share. I remember several articles at the point
already talking about how Nortel rarely turns a profit.
2. When the stock levelled around $45-$60 a share ( roughly ).
Moving forward, buying call options on companies in certain depressed sectors might be a good idea for a risk tolerant investor. I disagree with you on Canadian banks they are in much better shape then the US banks because they are an oligopoly and basically have a license to print money based on Canadian consumers. So whichever banks have less foreign investment exposure might be a good bet. Buying Canadian banks when they depress in price has always been a good investment in general. Options I'm not sure the time horizen is a tricky choice. The best buy opportunity was mid-December.
I kind of went to sleep on investments and missed a great opportunity recently. Timminco was way overpriced at $30+ a share ( the company loses money ) and a well placed put option would have been easy money. Reminds me of Cott beverages at $50 a share in the 1980s I believe when no name pop was popular.
Last edited by Duncan Smith; Thursday, 15th January, 2009, 09:35 PM.
I uesd to play the Nimzo. Did ok with I guess, despite knowing next to no theory. Then I suddenly switched to the King's Indian for some reason. I do pretty well with it too, but still know next to no theory. Moral of the story? Screw theory. Would rather learn build orders in Starcraft.
It is always easy to talk about past events on the market. True genius would not be to predict Nortel would tank but to profit from it. There were two definate points where buying put options with exercise dates 1-2 years in advance would have made the holders rich.
Yes, talking after the fact is easy. If you look at the date I started this thread, mid Sept., it was before the major carnage.
I don't bother with options. When I have a strong feeling on something I buy an ETF. Usually with 2X leverage. I said when I shorted oil. At that time it was around 140 a barrel. Maybe a couple of the poster remember because we discussed it.
What is it you disagree with me about on the banks? All I said is there aren't any in my Depression Portfolio. There is a point where I will go long the TSX financial index with an ETF but it's not there yet. Since I started writing this thread, Sept. 15, the big 5 banks are down 30 to 40 percent. You only have to look at the charts to see that. Now many are raising money and diluting the shares. I'd like to wait another couple of quarters to see if there is a reason they need the money. Around the middle of September the TSX capped financial index was around 180. Today it's around 126. That's a drop of some 30%. The banks are on that index. When my analysis tells me the time is right I'll buy an index ETF and I too will benefit from the increase in the value of the banks.
Remember, I'm just an old guy who invests with his grocery money. I started the Depression Portfolio when PM Harper said people should be investing. He's an economist. His idea, my picks. And I disclose when I buy them so it's not after the fact.
DISCLAIMER: None of what I write should be used for investment decisions. I write this stuff for entertainment. Consult a financial advisor.
I uesd to play the Nimzo. Did ok with I guess, despite knowing next to no theory. Then I suddenly switched to the King's Indian for some reason. I do pretty well with it too, but still know next to no theory. Moral of the story? Screw theory. Would rather learn build orders in Starcraft.
Gary will give Lucas a free chess lesson.
When you play your opening well you get easier middle games and fewer endgames.
Yes, talking after the fact is easy. If you look at the date I started this thread, mid Sept., it was before the major carnage.
I don't bother with options. When I have a strong feeling on something I buy an ETF. Usually with 2X leverage. I said when I shorted oil. At that time it was around 140 a barrel. Maybe a couple of the poster remember because we discussed it.
What is it you disagree with me about on the banks? All I said is there aren't any in my Depression Portfolio. There is a point where I will go long the TSX financial index with an ETF but it's not there yet. Since I started writing this thread, Sept. 15, the big 5 banks are down 30 to 40 percent. You only have to look at the charts to see that. Now many are raising money and diluting the shares. I'd like to wait another couple of quarters to see if there is a reason they need the money. Around the middle of September the TSX capped financial index was around 180. Today it's around 126. That's a drop of some 30%. The banks are on that index. When my analysis tells me the time is right I'll buy an index ETF and I too will benefit from the increase in the value of the banks.
Remember, I'm just an old guy who invests with his grocery money. I started the Depression Portfolio when PM Harper said people should be investing. He's an economist. His idea, my picks. And I disclose when I buy them so it's not after the fact.
DISCLAIMER: None of what I write should be used for investment decisions. I write this stuff for entertainment. Consult a financial advisor.
"Uhh, I don't understand how a writer could ever get writer's block, so called. My problem is having too much. And being unable to get it down."
Yo, why is the ripper so ill?
That would be a unpardonable breach of confidence for me to reveal
He said, "One day all eyes will be on me"
"When they look up in the sky and see the neon C"
Rhymes inscribed on a nickel disk encased
In a glass with an ion beam for longevity
For more then ten centuries, impressions and memories
The first time machine inventor will mention me
Canibus was a visionary indeed
He believed light could travel in multiples of C
The organic supercomputer that solved the mysteries
Of Klein-Kaluza with two blue metric rulers
Liked Cool J, but thought Stephen Jay Gould was cooler
And he never liked to propagate rumors
Smoked Canary Island cigars
Liked American luxury cars and beautiful Asian broads
He had a strong mind, he used to philosophize
About rhymes while he was pruning his Bonsai
He claimed that he had written the greatest rhyme of all time
But he would never take it out his archives
He wrote two songs per day
And was constantly was experimenting with his wordplay
In his youth he did a report on the Sloan Digital Sky Survey
He got an F but he deserved an A
I followed his career from the first day
It seemed the lack of support contributed to his inert ways
I seen him put in 24 hour workdays
With deferred pay, undeterred by the word shame
Public humiliation was the worst pain
He was spinning out of control like a class 5 hurricane
He said he wouldn't want another emcee to suffer the same
Especially when there's nothing to gain
He was the illest alive, but nobody would face it
He spit till his tongue was too torched to taste it
Privately funded corporations carbon-dated
His latest creations to extract the information
They found it utterly amazing
They claimed the body of his work was the same thing as a priceless painting
Never mattered to him that art galleries hated him
Cos Thomas Kinkade called and said he would take ten
Complete enigmas wrapped in puzzles encrypted in language
With sound but without shape or signature
Kept files in his garage on MS-DOS
In a fire-proof pod, we thought it was odd
Outside there was a shed with an Oppenheimer lock
He apparently kept more wax than Madame Tussuad's
We were in total awe, cos it blew our minds
So many rhymes that were intricately designed
He was the Poet Laureate of his time
And if you don't mind, I'd like to share some of his rhymes:
Alone in my room, looking through the 32X telescope zoom
Adjusting the focus of the moon
One should not assume the philosophy of David Hume
Is nothing more than a subjective conclusion
What is the maximum field rate application?
The runaway glaciation surrounding the ocean basin
Affects the population fluctuation
On a continuous basis but that's just the basics
The juxtaposition of Can-i-bus's position
The precision of something no other has written
Way above and beyond what was intended
The unparalleled malleable enunciation of a sentence
You didn't go to college, obviously
I can tell by your ungodly, unintelligible terminology
A remarkable odyssey, the rhymes of modern speeds
When the brain orders the body not to breathe
Your competency is not up to speed, you're not in my league
You couldn't possibly be hotter than me
Or oppositely, you're minus 25 degrees, you squeeze
But the condensation makes rifle barrels freeze
Allow me to speak figuratively, nigga please
My intellectual property's about the size of Greece
Your counselor advised you not to speak
My counselor advised me to keep rhyming till they stop the beat
In the words of Joseph Heller, "I learned how to write better"
Even though it sort of irked me
He said he didn't understand the process of the imagination
But he felt he was at its mercy
Which exploits my point perfectly and certainly
Reinforces the reason why nobody's probably ever heard of me
Couldn't understand what I mean by ill
Lest you try to translate what I print to film
This is the line of will, the circle of time
The cycle of eternity, the emergence of one mind
Academic phonetics render critics tongue-tied
I've personified dry humor of cum laude alumni
A wise man sees failure as progress
A fool divorces his knowledge and misses the logic
And loses his soul in the process
Obsessed with nonsense with a caricature that has no content
My style is masterful, multi-lateral
I could battle a fool and be naturally cruel
Words of scorn are a disastrous tool
From an existentialist view, I'm a better rapper than you
Grab the mic and rip your physical fabric in two
My attitude is effed up but admirable
Different methods interpreted into different forms
From entirely different perceptions and seen from different norms
Not just spitting a poem, there's much more involved
There's much more pieces of the puzzle for you to solve
Forty-eight orders of mechanical laws
And rays of creational cause enhance the cadence of my bars
Maybe I am self-absorbed
But that's the effect, to find the cause you should ask my A&R
Today is what it is, but only because yesterday was what it was
Permitted you've heard of Beelzebub
A tale of demons and drugs, pissy drunk in the club
With the DJ doing the needle rub
Chances are you'll never see me son
Yeah I know my name's Canibus, but I can't help you if you need a dub
I came to holler at some big booty broads and listen to the speakers thump
Where you get conceited from?
I'm so nice on the mic, they wanna beat me up
It's deep as what, I ain't seen it all but I've seen enough
Really unbelievable stuff
There's a lot of times where I wanna speak but I'm stuck
I should leave this rap shit alone
And kick my incredible rhymes in the privacy of my own home
My imagination is my own
The liberty to speak freely, lyrically, on the microphone
With a pen in my hand, I bring motion to the enneagram
And become Cani-millenium-man
Engrave my back with the emperor's stamp
Been spitting scientific rap since the 17th century began
Trying to escape the wicked empire of Def Jam
And the land where lyrics are bland and heretics hang
Every warrior has an axe to bury
But he has to learn to discern between enemy and adversary
I said to myself, "Germaine, this is insane"
"It's suicide, it's controlled flight into terrain"
I fought to regain control of the plane, but went up in a ball of flames
And got banned from the hip hop hall of fame
For two bars I kept hearing in my head over and over again
It cost me everything...
I'm convinced now that more then truth is at stake
When people create language that pretends to communicate
Euphemisms are misunderstood as mistakes
But it's a bi-product of the ghetto music we make
From my extroverted point of view I think it's too late
Hip hop has never been the same since '88
Since it became a lucrative profession, there's a misconception
That a movement in any direction is progression
Even though of the potency of it lessens
Big money industry's writing checks to suppress the question
And nobody gives an eff no more, no one goes to the book store
Ever since the confluence of Moore's Law
But I stay in the lab, like Niels Bohr
And his son Aage, Edward Lorenz and Leo Szilard
Lyrically, I took rap music and turned the knob
To the right, full throttle, and added panache
Why would I argue with my own conscience over the truth?
That's like me telling myself, "Don't tell me what to do"
Dialyses and analyses of battle emcees
Sometimes I say things I myself can't believe
My lyrical is so skillfully elliptical
I can understand how it makes you miserable
You wonder why I never let you play your beats for me?
Or why I keep my studio enshrouded in secrecy?
You wonder what's my infatuation with Alicia Keys?
"Canibus, why don't you speak to me?"
Yo, I meant it when I said no one can shine on a song that features me
That's why I said it so vehemently
You need to replace the hate with respect
I'm probably the best yet, Poet Laureate
"Generally, I take... I go with the given. You know, with what comes to me over the celestial wireless. Whenever it comes, you're lucky when you get it."
Last edited by Ben Daswani; Sunday, 18th January, 2009, 12:20 AM.
Reason: fixed some typos ;)
everytime it hurts, it hurts just like the first (and then you cry till there's no more tears)
Roughly three weeks ago, I watched a segment on W-5 that interviewed a family of autoworkers (husband/wife/mother), two of whom had recently lost their jobs and the third was about to do so. The most revealing part of this interview came near the end when the husband was asked what he would do differently had he known that a recession could destroy his lifestyle. Keep in mind that this family were all living in the same home, so I would expect that their household income was surely in excess of $150K/year. His answer floored me. No, he said, he would not have done anything differently. If he wanted a toy, he bought it. Only the best for him and his family. Seems that not only the car companies can't learn from their mistakes. The (ex-)employees seem incapable of it, too.
"Tom is a well known racist, and like most of them he won't admit it, possibly even to himself." - Ed Seedhouse, October 4, 2020.
Roughly three weeks ago, I watched a segment on W-5 that interviewed a family of autoworkers (husband/wife/mother), two of whom had recently lost their jobs and the third was about to do so. The most revealing part of this interview came near the end when the husband was asked what he would do differently had he known that a recession could destroy his lifestyle. Keep in mind that this family were all living in the same home, so I would expect that their household income was surely in excess of $150K/year. His answer floored me. No, he said, he would not have done anything differently. If he wanted a toy, he bought it. Only the best for him and his family. Seems that not only the car companies can't learn from their mistakes. The (ex-)employees seem incapable of it, too.
Hi Tom,
I suppose it would depend if they worked on the assembly line or as tradesmen like electricians as I think it's different wage scales. With overtime and shift premiums I'd have guessed the income for the three at twice your estimate. Take home pay would probably vary. Understand that it's only a guess because I only know rates I've read in the newspaper.
You didn't say which country or which car manufacturer. I don't think all the companies are the same and my guess is for GM or Ford in Canada.
Did they lose their jobs permanently with a package or are they on layoff? When you mentioned mother, she could have been working there decades.
I used to do maintainance work for my employer (I wasn't employed in the auto industry) at an auto manufacturer. Did it for decades. The people who worked there always seem to put in a pretty solid day. When the auto workers president talks about having good productivity, I believe him.
I can see a persons point of view in spending their money like that man said. You can't take it with you. The view is pretty widespread. Lots of people end up working to support their life style.
I think probably you and I have about the same outlook. Even if either of us came into a lot of money it wouldn't change our lifestye because we're happy with the one we have. I haven't worked in more than 10 years.
Did you notice the post where I said I'd bought 1 unit of Ford Motors? I'm not saying how many shares are in 1 unit but each unit is equal. It's a bit lower now but I don't care because eventually it will either have a good gain or go to Zero. They put out their earnings report for 2008 this morning. They had a net loss of 5.9 Billion for the fourth quarter. The full year looks like a net loss of around 14.5 billion.
That's what I call ugly. But it doesn't bother me. I know the company will turn around and in a few years they will likely be paying a dividend again. They aren't even at the point of asking for a bailout and I would imagine if things get really bad the government will extend them the same loans they are extending the other auto manufacturers. I think Ford started in around 1903 or 1904 and they have been through one depression. I'd like to see them get lean and mean but I know when a company cuts staff they have less people to produce for them. Not good for revenue and profits.
My other motor company, Sparton Motors on the NASDAQ, is doing well. They make something Ford doesn't. Money.
I consider Ford one of my more risky investments. It and every other investment I talk about comes with my usual disclaimer to consult a financial advisor, for those who are considering them. I'm simply fooling around during the depression to see if I can make money with long term holds.
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