Welcome To The Depression...

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  • Re: Welcome To The Depression...

    Originally posted by Paul Bonham View Post
    Give a Capitalist enough rope and he'll hang himself.
    Give a Marxist enough rope and he'll hang the Capitalist.

    Either way, the Capitalist is screwed. Isn't it interesting that just as Capitalist America is in the throes of it's self-hanging, Marxist Russia is yanking the rope! They just convinced Kyrgyzstan (most difficult nation in the world to spell?) to close American bases in return for aid -- bases needed for America to surge in Afghanistan.

    We celebrated the fall of the Berlin Wall, 1989.... now just 20 years later, the laugh is on us, big time. Marxist economic theories disproved? Hang on to your hats, folks, we're in for a ride!

    Jason, just as an aside:

    Marx and Fischer, sitting in a tree,
    K-I-S-S-I-N-G

    HAVE FUN WITH THAT ONE!
    LOL Marx and Fischer would get along just fine together! Marx the rich hypocrite (when in London he was in the top 2% in yearly income) and Fischer the nutbar racist.

    The problem with Russia is not that it is 'Marxist', it is not, it is a dictatorship under the disguise of being Marxist. It kind of reminds me of Eygpt under the greek Ptolemy reign, everything is 'controlled' and everyone is (except the ruling elite) is poor. True Marxism is a great ideal, too bad it doesn't take human nature into account.

    Same goes for the Republicans in the states, spending money like drunken sailors when they were in charge is not a capitalist ideal. I recently re-read the Ben. Franklin s autobiography... he would be ashamed of these so called 'capitalists'. Real capitalism wouldn't protect dying industries...

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    • Re: Welcome To The Depression...

      Originally posted by Paul Bonham View Post
      Give a Capitalist enough rope and he'll hang himself.
      Give a Marxist enough rope and he'll hang the Capitalist.

      Either way, the Capitalist is screwed. Isn't it interesting that just as Capitalist America is in the throes of it's self-hanging, Marxist Russia is yanking the rope! They just convinced Kyrgyzstan (most difficult nation in the world to spell?) to close American bases in return for aid -- bases needed for America to surge in Afghanistan.

      We celebrated the fall of the Berlin Wall, 1989.... now just 20 years later, the laugh is on us, big time. Marxist economic theories disproved? Hang on to your hats, folks, we're in for a ride!

      Jason, just as an aside:

      Marx and Fischer, sitting in a tree,
      K-I-S-S-I-N-G

      HAVE FUN WITH THAT ONE!
      LOL? America is a capitalist country now? When did this change take place? I wasn't aware that nations that spend billions on wars, arbitrarily illegalise the production/trade of specific goods/services, interfere in the mortgage market, regulate energy markets, tax lucratively and spend on various social programmes, restrict labour freedoms, and regulate businesses were considered capitalist. But, hey, what do I know? I'm just correct.
      everytime it hurts, it hurts just like the first (and then you cry till there's no more tears)

      Comment


      • Re: Welcome To The Depression...

        Originally posted by ben daswani View Post
        LOL? America is a capitalist country now? When did this change take place? I wasn't aware that nations that spend billions on wars, arbitrarily illegalise the production/trade of specific goods/services, interfere in the mortgage market, regulate energy markets, tax lucratively and spend on various social programmes, restrict labour freedoms, and regulate businesses were considered capitalist. But, hey, what do I know? I'm just correct.
        And for being so correct, you win.... a $100,000 gold and diamond bracelet! What? No straight male would be caught dead wearing such a bracelet, you say? Well, no, we can't just send you the cash. We'll have to award the bracelet to the Miss Americ-- er, I mean the runner up, Gary Ruben. Can we send you a book as a consolation prize? Autographed by Frank Dixon?

        But your points about America are well taken. Jason also points out how far America is from the Capitalist ideal, just as he described Russia being far from the Marxist ideal. I think both cases point out that ideals are great, but human nature always leads to the same end. That's why I mentioned the fall of the Berlin wall, when I remember thinking, "What's it going to be like when the Capitalists screw up?". Well, here we are.
        Only the rushing is heard...
        Onward flies the bird.

        Comment


        • Re: Welcome To The Depression...

          Originally posted by Paul Bonham View Post
          And for being so correct, you win.... a $100,000 gold and diamond bracelet! What? No straight male would be caught dead wearing such a bracelet, you say? Well, no, we can't just send you the cash. We'll have to award the bracelet to the Miss Americ-- er, I mean the runner up, Gary Ruben. Can we send you a book as a consolation prize? Autographed by Frank Dixon?
          WHAT!!! I wouldn't wear such a bracelet.

          Probably you guys should sign up for the Gary Ruben School of Capitalism.

          I've sometimes looked at the extreme right and left wing political partys. Two different positions but often they seem to go down the same road, with some variations, to reach their goals.

          I don't think it's that Bush and his Republicans are not the political right in the U.S. Harper and his Conservatives are also the political right in our country. It's that they are doing what they have to do to try to fix the economy of our nations. Even if it might mean some nationalization. The think tanks are disappointed with the direction which is being taken. They can afford to be as they aren't charged with leading the nation back to prosperity. I'm cheering Harper on to success. I hope he does it and becomes a hero in the history books.
          Gary Ruben
          CC - IA and SIM

          Comment


          • Re: Welcome To The Depression...

            I was reading about the performance of our Canada Pension Plan today. Seems they lost $18.3 Billion dollars for the year, $8.5 Billion in the last 3 months of the year. According to a Globe and Mail newspaper story they had $127.7 Billion at the end of June and $108.9 Billion at the end of the 2008 year. That's our pension money they are using to speculate the markets.

            The good part is they still have our pension money flowing in and they have an opportunity to recoup the loses. I guess they figure there will be some miraculous turnaround in the markets. Is there any oversight or risk management involved here?

            You know, folks, this kind of loss is awesome. They lost more in 6 months than Ford lost in a full year. I guess it's government policy to speculate our pension fund.

            The Americans elected hope. Canadians elected hopelessness.

            The budget passed in the House of Commons. Most of the Liberals seemed to enthusiastically support the Conservatives on the budget. Like they say on Idol, the Liberals made it their own. I have to think they had nothing better to present to the voters so supported the Conservatives.

            You might have heard and read the term "shovel ready" in reference to projects for funding. The only "shovel ready" projects I know can be found in cow pastures.

            The Americans are working on a big bailout bill which will probably pass this weekend. They will have to use a lot of trees to print the Trillions of dollars they have been talking. I suppose if they run out of trees we can sell them some. That's assuming it's not simply talk.

            The "buy American" we have been hearing would have some teeth. While there might be some trade implications on the federal level, I'm wondering if the Americans are able to institute a buy American policy on the state and local level. As I recall the softwood lumber dispute, it took years to get a decision and then years to negotiate the settlement after the Americans refused to pay.

            I'm trying to find some positive stuff to write about but can't think of anything. Oh yeah, more bad news. We had a trade deficit in December. The first time since the 1970's. I think they said it had to do with the drop in the price of oil and gas. I sure hope they aren't hanging their hat on oil and gas exports to replace the manufacturing jobs we have lost. I'm hearing that Cushing, where they store oil in the U.S., is almost full. It's been a cold winter and Natural gas prices are low. Makes me wonder how low they will go when the heating season draw is finished. In the warmer weather it's used mainly for industry and manufacturing in this area. Some is used for making electricity. Everyone tells me the price will go up but not when. All I know is the trend is down until it's up. If I was into catching falling knives and wanted to speculate oil, I'd wait for around 25 dollar oil. I found it easier to pick a spot to short oil because I had an idea of the price I thought was not sustainable and some other things on the chart. The problem with trying to pick a bottom is the price can spike down from say 40 to 25 dollar pretty much wiping out a position. Particularly on a 2X play. When oil is around 140, a movement of 15 dollars is a much smaller percentage.

            DISCLAIMER: None of what I write should be used for investment decisions. I write this stuff for entertainment. Consult a financial advisor.
            Gary Ruben
            CC - IA and SIM

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            • Re: Welcome To The Depression...

              You only take a "loss" when you liquidate your position by selling out holdings at a lower price than which you bought in at. Did the Canada Pension Plan liquidate all their holdings? No! They probably held on to most - and possibly bought more at lower prices with any excess cash. The total valuation may be less - but it is not a "loss".

              Comment


              • Re: Welcome To The Depression...

                Originally posted by Hugh Brodie View Post
                You only take a "loss" when you liquidate your position by selling out holdings at a lower price than which you bought in at. Did the Canada Pension Plan liquidate all their holdings? No! They probably held on to most - and possibly bought more at lower prices with any excess cash. The total valuation may be less - but it is not a "loss".
                I don't know what the holdings are and you're not telling me. All you tell me is they didn't liquidate all their holdings. You aren't telling me which ones they did liquidate, if any.

                I think they have to mark to market. If that wasn't the case there are large companies which would not be in trouble now.

                Let's look at some things which MIGHT have been in the plan the end of June. Take Nortel. It was trading around $8. It's now a dime and I doubt they will ever recoup the loss.

                BCE was around 35 or more the end of June. It could get back there but when.

                Air Canada was around 8 the end of June. It's now 1.45 and I saw a target price of 25 cents on it. That was on BNN.

                A newspaper is speculating banks cutting their dividends. That will give further downward pressure. Here's an article you can read. I don't make this stuff up as I go along.

                http://business.theglobeandmail.com/...alEvents2/home

                There are oil and gas companies. Many have lots of debt. If the price of the commodity stays down will they survive? This lesson I learned the hard way around 1980 when many of the companies I had went under. The assets were sold off and the shareholders got nothing. Debt holders didn't get much more.

                With really good assets, as the current turmoil goes on and prices stay low, companies with money might buy them for less than the CPP paid. Take Certicom which is being taken over for $3. It was trading for more than $60. some years back and I'd imagine some people have been holding and hoping.

                Who do you think has been closer at analysing since I started writing this thread in Sept? Me or the government?

                Anyone can analyse this, Hugh. It's like Chess. You look at all the possibilities and the path is appearant. :)
                Gary Ruben
                CC - IA and SIM

                Comment


                • Re: Welcome To The Depression...

                  It's not fair to point the finger at the government for seeing their investments in the stock market lose value. My RRSP investments are doing no better, if not worse.

                  Consider the fact that most mutual funds do no better than the TSX index. What makes us think that we are smarter than professionals.

                  The TSX index represents the averaged returns on investments. To beat the index you have to consistently smarter than half the investors out there.

                  A decade ago people we lauding the government for improving the return on the pension fund by investing the money. Bottom line it a smart idea. I'm sure that the Ontario's teacher pension fund has taken a bath recently too. Should we point fingers at them as well?

                  You remind me of the fable of the miller, his son, and their donkey.

                  Comment


                  • Re: Welcome To The Depression...

                    Originally posted by Garland Best View Post
                    It's not fair to point the finger at the government for seeing their investments in the stock market lose value. My RRSP investments are doing no better, if not worse.
                    I'm afraid it's not their investments. It's our investments. Our pension fund contributions and our future. They didn't ask people in which asset class they wanted their contributions invested. Many would have chosen government backed bonds.

                    Where would you get the idea it's their investments?

                    There's a difference between your RRSP investment and the CPP investments. You are speculating with your own money. They are speculating with other peoples money. You do see the difference, don't you?

                    I could never be a money manager. If I was losing other peoples money I wouldn't be able to sleep at night. It would bother me.

                    For my part, I've only ever held GIC's in my RRSP. Never a mutual fund or stocks. I remember in the 1980's, I think it was, I got around 12 percent per year for 5 years. The rule of 72 says at that rate compounded, a sum doubles in around 6 years.
                    Gary Ruben
                    CC - IA and SIM

                    Comment


                    • Re: Welcome To The Depression...

                      In 1980, I got 20.25% for a 1-year GIC. I was greedy - I could only get 18% for a 5-year one.

                      For my part, I've only ever held GIC's in my RRSP. Never a mutual fund or stocks. I remember in the 1980's, I think it was, I got around 12 percent per year for 5 years. The rule of 72 says at that rate compounded, a sum doubles in around 6 years.

                      Comment


                      • Re: Welcome To The Depression...

                        Originally posted by Hugh Brodie View Post
                        In 1980, I got 20.25% for a 1-year GIC. I was greedy - I could only get 18% for a 5-year one.
                        That's a great rate! I never got that high. Do you remember when mortgage rates were over 20%? Payments soared for those who got caught up.

                        I wonder if this will end in high inflation this time.

                        Back then the company I worked for negotiated a contract with the union which didn't give much of a pay raise. I think it was 2 years. After about 6 months they came back and asked us to take a larger money increase in return for giving up some benefits. This was rejected. Then they came back and simply offered an across the board percentage increase (with more for the really underpaid departments) with nothing in return, which was accepted.

                        What was happening was the most productive workers and technical people were leaving and going to work for companies which paid more.
                        Gary Ruben
                        CC - IA and SIM

                        Comment


                        • Re: Welcome To The Depression...

                          Originally posted by Jason Lohner View Post
                          LOL politics you gotta love it
                          ...Those on the left of the political spectrum only have one solution to this... TAX TAX TAX. People who think this would solve the problem should read Adam Smith 'the wealth of nations' repeatedly until they understand it.
                          ...
                          Hmmm,

                          Do you really think you understood what you've read? Noam Chomsky has different point of view about what Adam Smith was intending in "the wealth of nations". Can you guess which one I'll listen to more carefully between you and Chomsky? 8;-)

                          Comment


                          • Re: Welcome To The Depression...

                            Originally posted by Luc Lucienevich Fortin View Post
                            Hmmm,

                            Do you really think you understood what you've read? Noam Chomsky has different point of view about what Adam Smith was intending in "the wealth of nations". Can you guess which one I'll listen to more carefully between you and Chomsky? 8;-)
                            im sure you can guess what my opinion is of Chumpsky. Yes I understood what I read. Chompsky is pseudo intellectual crap that has no real world application.

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                            • Re: Welcome To The Depression...

                              Originally posted by Alan Baljeu View Post
                              To my understanding, sports are funded because they contribute to physical fitness, and that contributes to fewer health problems like Type II diabetes, and that improves quality of life and decreases future health care costs.

                              If you want chess to get in on the sports ticket, you need a health-benefit study or it's not getting off the ground. If you want to tout other benefits of chess, look for a different program.
                              Thanks for the explanation!

                              Now I understand what Tories' point of view about music lessons is. 8;-)

                              Comment


                              • Re: Welcome To The Depression...

                                Man, my team is POISED to climb to the top and Brad Richards goes down with an injury?? What is this! I'm experiencing what is easily the worst injury luck in the history of hockey pools.
                                everytime it hurts, it hurts just like the first (and then you cry till there's no more tears)

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