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Dark Knight / Le Chevalier Noir
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---- Nous avons besoin d'un traduction français!
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Failing that, the song "Telephone" from the album "Doc at the Radar Station"
Whatsa matter with John Denver?
Seeing as how we are rambling just a little in this thread, I got a neat book yesterday. Buried Treasure of Newfoundland and Labrador by Galgay and McCarthy. I don't know if you ever came across it in your years on the Island. Now all I have to do is read it.
I was going to write something on my depression portfolio but Domtar is closing down a paper machine premanently and putting more than 190 people out of work in Dryden, Ontario. Dryden is close to the Manitoba border.
Other than that the companies are making money and the price of the stock is going down. Maybe my PM, Stephen, steered me in the wrong direction when he suggested buying stocks. :) I'm in for the long run, though, and if the companies go up a buck a share in a hurry that will be long enough.
Are you familiar with those Time of Use Electric meters? I'm thinking of doing a rant on them.
The Americans elected a new president. They rejected the party in power and decided to go in a different direction. For them it was all about the economy. By contrast, Canada returned the same party but didn't give them a majority. Our government will govern at the pleasure of the opposition. Maybe 18 months and we'll do it again.
I'm going to miss Palin's inspiring speeches. I always found them as subtle as a Dirty Harry movie, with Clint Eastwood.
I notice the U.S. auto manufacturers are doing more layoff here in Canada, and elsewhere. The U.S. auto industry and spinoff jobs it provides, as far as I know, provides the U.S. with hundreds of millions of dollars a year in income tax revenue. In an article I was reading, worst case the government would lose over $150 Billion in 2009, 2010 and 2011. Those kind of numbers deserve a reference so here is where I read that stuff.
So what do I expect to signal a turnaround? A low on the Dow of around 6800. Our dollar at around 65 - 70 cents. Oil at between 30 and 40 dollars a barrel. Your expectations may be different.
I'll have to see if I can find another entry for my Depression Portfolio. I'd like something cheap and fast. At my age I try not to buy green bananas. How times change. For the past 45 years there hasn't been a time when I haven't held a mining stock which cost less than 10 cents for AT LEAST 10 years.
About 30 years ago I phoned a company for investor relations news and asked if they were active and what was planned. Can't even remember the name anymore. The guy told me they were active and were planning to drill a well in a good spot. So I bought some shares for pennies. The months passed. I called and asked how the well went. He told me it was dry. I reminded him that he said it was in a good spot. He told me the driller thought a different spot was better so drilled the dry well in that spot. Ever the diplomat, I asked the guy who was paying for the well. Us or the driller? That guy "lost it" at that point. He asked me how I would like to come and run the company. I told him I already had enough headaches. Remember folks, if you're a shareholder you get to write or phone and ask questions. You can expect news that's already been reported but that you may not have seen.
DISCLAIMER: None of what I write should be used for investment decisions. I write this stuff for entertainment. Consult a financial adviser.
I think anyone who invests in car manufacturing or the airlines has lost their mind. They are industries that are too capital intensive and too reliant on cheap oil. I think the moment that this recession is nearing the end, the price of oil will spike right back up. All those SUV buyers and those who want to fly around the globe are going to be paying handsomely for the privilege.
I expect governments to prop up those industries up for a while, long past the point where it is obvious that we are reaching the end of much of hydrocarbon-based industrialized society.
"Tom is a well known racist, and like most of them he won't admit it, possibly even to himself." - Ed Seedhouse, October 4, 2020.
I think anyone who invests in car manufacturing or the airlines has lost their mind. They are industries that are too capital intensive and too reliant on cheap oil. I think the moment that this recession is nearing the end, the price of oil will spike right back up. All those SUV buyers and those who want to fly around the globe are going to be paying handsomely for the privilege.
I expect governments to prop up those industries up for a while, long past the point where it is obvious that we are reaching the end of much of hydrocarbon-based industrialized society.
I also am not interested in the auto manufacturers and airlines. I agree the governments will likely bail out at least the auto manufacturers. I also don't have any financial stocks. They are in my green banana category. :)
The auto industry is a big energy user. That's over and above what goes into the gas tank. They also have the problem of what they call the legacy costs. A lot of relatively young retirees and pensions and health benefits to look after.
I worked in the energy field starting in the 60's. Over the years they managed to find more oil and natural gas every time the price went up. That was as predictable as night following day. We have had autos that ran on natural gas and gasoline for years. I drove one for about 5 years. When the natural gas ran out a flip of a switch changed it over to gasoline. Didn't even have to stop the vehicle. You could tell it was running out because you could feel it losing power while your foot was on the gas pedal. I don't know if they still use them and haven't noticed a fill up station for a few years now.
The U.S. hasn't build a new nuclear reactor for electricity in around 25 years as far as I know. They now have some 30 in various stages of planning and permitting. Thermal coal is also big for powering electricity. Canada has lots of that and we sell it. They also use natural gas for generating electricity as natural gas burns cleaner than coal or oil. There is an electrical generator at the old Pickering garbage dump that runs on the gas from the garbage pile. The backup for the garbage gas is natural gas. I used to go there for the nat. gas part. It was a stinky place to work.
I think the U.S. is, or was, using something like 20 million barrels of oil a day and around half is imported. For the price to spike back up the demand will have to increase. I don't know where the demand will come from. Particularly if the U.S. is successful in finding new supplies of offshore oil in the areas they plan to open up for drilling.
I don't own any strictly oil or gas stocks and won't be buying any in the near future. Most of what interests me right now benefits from lower energy costs, a lower Canadian Dollar and has a good part of their business in the U.S. but reports in Canadian dollars, and pay a dividend or distribution which I think is sustainable.
You are right, the world finds oil everyday. It also use it everyday. I believe the ratio is something like 3:1 or 4:1 using vs finding. We are living off the discoveries of the past decades. Finds are getting smaller and smaller. The Cantrells and Ghawars have been found. I doubt that they will find another like them. I hope I am wrong about that.
The world currently uses 80-85 million barrels per day. Even if North American demand dropped, it would be more than compensated by increased demand from China and India, enormous countries whose populations are just now discovering the personal automobile.
I was watching a TV show about the Alberta Tar Sands. The spokesman estimated that there were three trillion barrels in the ground. He made it sound like a lot. It is. He made it sound like this was enough oil to last the world 300 years. It's not.
At the current rate of world wide consumption, even if every last drop could be extracted, and at absolutely zero energy cost (two absolutely impossible conditions), the world would use that up in roughly ... 30 years.
Of course it will take longer than that to extract it all. However, because the biggest oil discoveries are in terminal decline, the world needs to find oil just to meet present demand. How can they do that with the Tar Sands? They only extract a million or so barrels daily. Okay, that's 300 years' worth of oil at that rate of extraction, maybe. But by that reasoning, I have 300 years' worth of food in my refrigerator, too. At least it is that much if I only eat one bite per month. ;-)
I think your figures of oil use of 80 - 85 million barrels per day is probably correct. Of this the U.S. was using around 21.7 million barrels per day last figures I saw. About half that amount was domestic production. The U.S. is the biggest user from what I know.
I am not going to argue the figures or projections on future finds or length of supply. Let's assume they are correct at the worst case scenario.
The price can only be what the user is willing to pay. If OPEC doesn't want to sell at the world prices then they pretty much have to shut it in. Refineries can't keep refining oil into gasoline and other products from $125.00 oil if they can't sell it. The OPEC nations also want their cash flow which comes from oil. Companies which can't make money on the widgits they produce simply close their doors.
I don't know which way you expect the price of oil to go. It's already dropped around 90 dollars a barrel from its highs only a few months ago. The trend is downward until it's not downward anymore.
You and I are possibly looking at different things. I'm looking at where I think the price of oil will go based on the economy and the willingness, ability and viablility of the consumer paying the price. Are you looking at the value of the oil based on the remaining supply?
I am amazed they managed to make any money on five dollar coffees. More power to them.
I don't drink coffee so have completely lost track of the cost. The last time I did it cost 1 dollar at the greasy spoon I used to frequent. It's a caffeine thing and not that I don't like it.
On saturdays I have breakfast at a greasy spoon and get sausages, two eggs, hash browns, two slices of toast, and coffee with free refills for $5.60. Next time I'll just ask for water instead of coffee, and pay only 60 cents. :D
"You and I are possibly looking at different things. I'm looking at where I think the price of oil will go based on the economy and the willingness, ability and viablility of the consumer paying the price. Are you looking at the value of the oil based on the remaining supply? "
Oil is purchased because:
1) There isn't a reasonable alternative (at least at the moment). Not like when say the price of beef goes up and people switch over to chicken.
2) It is, I think, only second to water in terms of what civilization requires to operate.
Consumers have no choice but to purchase oil. Not simply to get around, but it is contained in the cost of literally everything we buy.
If the price were suddenly $500/barrel, personal consumption would go down dramatically, but no way it would die. And everyone, especially those living in cities, would be paying for at least some of the cost otherwise they would starve. Because of that, only slight shortages (I would think even say 5-10%) would cause enormous upswings in price. It's not like people in city X are going to say "Hey, the price of beans or rice is just too high, I am not going to pay that much!" What else can they do?
Finally, most oil companies are not like ones in North America. They are owned by the governments. So if suddenly Saudi Aramco decided to sell oil to all Saudis for pennies and jacked the price up for everyone else, what could we do? Stop using it? No chance of that. It explains, to my mind more than anything else, why the US government is suddenly interested in places like Iran and Iraq and Sudan's Darfur. They know that the economy (and citizen's lives) is dependant upon oil and have to secure supplies into the future.
"Tom is a well known racist, and like most of them he won't admit it, possibly even to himself." - Ed Seedhouse, October 4, 2020.
1) There isn't a reasonable alternative (at least at the moment). Not like when say the price of beef goes up and people switch over to chicken.
2) It is, I think, only second to water in terms of what civilization requires to operate.
Consumers have no choice but to purchase oil. Not simply to get around, but it is contained in the cost of literally everything we buy.
If the price were suddenly $500/barrel, personal consumption would go down dramatically, but no way it would die. And everyone, especially those living in cities, would be paying for at least some of the cost otherwise they would starve. Because of that, only slight shortages (I would think even say 5-10%) would cause enormous upswings in price. It's not like people in city X are going to say "Hey, the price of beans or rice is just too high, I am not going to pay that much!" What else can they do?
Finally, most oil companies are not like ones in North America. They are owned by the governments. So if suddenly Saudi Aramco decided to sell oil to all Saudis for pennies and jacked the price up for everyone else, what could we do? Stop using it? No chance of that. It explains, to my mind more than anything else, why the US government is suddenly interested in places like Iran and Iraq and Sudan's Darfur. They know that the economy (and citizen's lives) is dependant upon oil and have to secure supplies into the future.
Probably to know how much we could cut back on use it's necessary to see how much of a barrel of decent oil is refined into gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, etc. Then we know how much can be cut back.
Natural gas can be shipped as LNG but with the pricing it isn't worthwhile for other nations to ship it to Canada. We have lots of Natural Gas (NG) and it can be used for most industrial uses. There is also the NG which is being found in shale formations and with the newer methods for fracturing the shale it's becoming viable.
The U.S. is importing the most oil. The nations you listed need cash flow so might not be in a position to set a price with a take it or leave it stance.
As for other sources of energy, there is nuclear for electricity and lots of coal. There are nations which will sell oil to the U.S. which are not members of OPEC. An easing of tensions and restrictions with Cuba would likely lead to joint ventures with the U.S. to develop the Cuban offshore oil reserves. Also, don't forget coal. Before they had the natural gas pipelines to Toronto there was manufactured gas made from coal.
I added to my depression portfolio today. I doubled down on Chartwell Seniors Housing Reit at 3.20. It had come off quite badly from my initial purchase. The distribution is 23%. I took a chance because they reported earning after the market closed. They reported a decent quarter and stated the distribution is maintainable for the foreseeable future.
I also added Sherritt International for 2.64. 5.3% dividend. They have coal, nickel and cobalt, oil and gas, potash, electric generation and assorted other assets. Lots of thermal coal in Alberta which they sell.
A couple of other things didn't get as low as I want to pay. Maybe in the future.
Please see my disclaimer.
DISCLAIMER: None of what I write should be used for investment decisions. I write this stuff for entertainment. Consult a financial adviser.
It might be time to say goodbye to this thread. Since I started writing it Sept. 15th, many things have happened. I feel certain back then many who read the thread laughed at me. Being a correspondence chess player, I analyzed the economic situation at the time, looked at the possibilities (lines), came to a conclusion and wrote what I thought was about to unfold. What I saw.
These days the word depression is being used more and more often on TV. Possibly over used. Financial institutions in the U.S. have failed. Stock markets are trembling under the weight of those wishing to sell. I understand grown men are weeping.
I hear people on business TV talk about a bottoming process the exchanges are going through. Personally, I don't see that but still hear a toilet flushing. What do I know, though. The part till now was the easy part. In an earlier posting I'd thought around 6800 on the Dow and we aren't there yet. Oil at 30 - 40 a barrrel and we aren't there. Our dollar 65 to 70 cents U.S.and we aren't there. Close on some of it but no prize. I haven't thought much about it since my last post but maybe it's time for me to re-evaluate. I hope my numbers are pessimistic and not optomistic. I heard a term this week which really describes some stock prices. "Stupid Cheap".
When our Prime Minister suggested it was time to buy stocks, I took his advice and started my Depression Portfolio. Most of what I bought has dropped but I still have confidence in the companies. This week I picked up another entry. A vehicle manufacturer. No, not one of the big three. It makes specialty vehicles like fire trucks, ambulances, the big hydro trucks and so forth. It also makes money. I'm not going to say which company as it doesn't trade on a Canadian exchange. It's a play on the difference in the dollar on gains and losses and the dividend will come in U.S. funds.
I hope the governments bails out the auto industry because of all the jobs which will be lost and the suffering if they don't. With energy prices dropping, making the vehicles should be more economical. Of course, they have to keep people working to afford the vehicles.
Like always, I'll listen to the professional analysts but do my own analysis and live with it.
DISCLAIMER: None of what I write should be used for investment decisions. I write this stuff for entertainment. Consult a financial adviser.
It appears to have been a thread of interest to many, given that the downturn affects all of us, even chessplayers, and we all have our own take on what is happening. A little diversion from chess items didn't hurt. Maybe, given the existing and continuing downward trend ( according to most analysts I've heard ), it's still a bit premature to consign this thread to the bins of " chess " history.
ENOUGH OF THIS ASSJACKERY. I CLAIM THIS THREAD AS MY OWN. IT IS NOW MY VIEWING LOG.
-grade scale-
a grade of 9 marks a film of exemplary merit
a grade of 8 marks a film of good merit
a grade of 7 marks a film of average merit
a grade of 6 marks a film of poor merit
a grade of 5 marks a film of terrible merit
a grade of <5 marks a film that should not have been made
-colouration-
black denotes an initial experience
blue denotes an exemplary initial experience
orange denotes a "top dozen" initial experience
grey denotes an auxiliary experience
-miscellanea-
grades are awarded in increments of 0.25
grades are out of 10
italicised entries were experienced in theatre
films will not appear in this log more than once
1108
19 Two-Lane Blacktop (Hellman, 1971) -- 10.00
16 The History Boys (Hytner, 2006) -- 7.50 16 The Boy in the Striped Pyjamas (Herman, 2008) -- 8.00
15 The Oh in Ohio (Kent, 2006) - 5.75
14 Happy-Go-Lucky (Leigh, 2008) -- 7.50
14 Burn After Reading (Coen, 2008) -- 8.50
13 Sideways (Payne, 2004) -- 8.50
12 King of California (Cahill, 2007) -- 7.25
11 Gummo (Korine, 1997) -- 8.75
10 Kids (Clark, 1995) -- 9.00
09 12 Angry Men (Lumet, 1957) -- 9.75
07 Ken Park (Clark/Lachman, 2002) -- 9.50
07 Junebug (Morrison, 2005) -- 7.50
07 Palindromes (Solondz, 2004) -- 8.00
06 Storytelling (Solondz, 2001) -- 9.00
05 Little Children (Field, 2006) -- 6.75
05 Happiness (Solondz, 1998) -- 7.50
04 Welcome to the Dollhouse (Solondz, 1995) -- 7.25
02 Mulholland Dr. (Lynch, 2001) -- 9.75
Last edited by Ben Daswani; Sunday, 23rd November, 2008, 12:01 AM.
everytime it hurts, it hurts just like the first (and then you cry till there's no more tears)
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