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Here's my predictions for 2011:
Chess Predictions:
1) Bob Gillanders will decide to run again as CFC President, and be comfortably re-elected.
2) CFC Membership will be up at the start of May, but not reach as high a total as 2000 members.
3) The CFC will not lose buckets of money, but nor will it gain much.
4) The Ontario Chess Association will be widely seen as a positive force for chess in the province, after years of irrelevance at best.
5) NJF [retired Ottawa organizer Neil James Frarey] will resurface and somehow participate in the Ottawa chess scene by the end of the year.
6) Kevin Spraggett's FIDE rating will be less at the end of 2011 than at the start.
Non-Chess Predictions:
7) Neither Isreal nor the USA will premptively attack Iran.
8) War will not break out on the Korean Peninsula.
9) There will not be a Federal Election in Canada.
10) The Ontario Liberal Party will win the provincial election, but will only have a minority government.
11) Sarah Palin will run for President of the United States.
12) The average global temperature will not rise in 2011.
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How did my last year's predictions turn out?
Here's the analysis of them :
"My 2010 predictions (as I've posted on the stagnant OCC message board):
Posted on January 1, 2010 at 03:21:18 PM by Kevin Pacey
I'm a day late, but here are my predictions for 2010:
Chess Predictions:
1) NJF [semi-retired Ottawa Organizer Neil James Frarey] may be down, but he is not out. Expect him to sort things thru and launch a revamped OCC message board by the end of the year.
2) Alas, NJF will decide not to run for CFC President this year;
3) Eric Van Dusen will be comfortably re-elected as CFC President;
4) The CFC will not get a new website;
5) The CFC will not lose buckets of money, but nor will it gain much;
6) The EOCA will remain affiliated with the useless Ontario Chess Association;
7) Kevin Spraggett's FIDE rating will be less at the end of 2010 than at the start;
Non-Chess Predictions:
8) Neither the US nor Isreal will premptively strike Iran;
9) The current US President will regain most of his lost popularity, as measured by the polls, by the end of 2010;
10) Because a Health Care bill will pass, the US Congress will remain in Democrat hands in the 2010 Congressional elections, but they will no longer have a filibuster-proof Senate (i.e. 60+ votes);
11) There will be a Federal election in Canada. The Cons will have a strengthened minority as a result, and Iggy will not remain leader of the Grits for long at all afterwards. Jack Layton will continue as NDP leader;
12) The average global temperature will not rise in 2010. Ocean acidification is the next big scare on the horizon."
#1: Wrong. NJF didn't come back to the chess scene (a new OCC message board was launched, but not by him, after the old one expired).
#2: Right.
#3: Wrong. Eric didn't run again to be CFC Prez.
#4: Right. The CFC may get a new website still, but not by tonight :).
#5: Right.
#6: Right.
#7: Right. K.S. finishes 2010 with a 2575 FIDE rating, down from January 2010's rating of 2586.
#8: Right.
#9: Perhaps too close to call. Obama rode higher than in much of 2010 in CNN's last poll, after his last-minute December 2010 legislative victories in the lame duck Congress.
#10: Basically wrong. My only claim to correctness was that a Health Bill was actually passed, but that was perhaps a formality, along with the fact that the Democrats ended up keeping control of (just) the Senate, without a Filibuster-proof majority.
#11: Wrong.
#12: Wrong. The Average Global temperature for 2010 on land & sea surface rose 0.36 C from the 1971-2000 average, according to one December report I saw a link to. Also, there is as yet not a serious panic/awareness about Ocean Acidification.
My total score: 6 correct predictions and 5 wrong predictions plus 1 unsettled result.
Chess Predictions:
1) Bob Gillanders will decide to run again as CFC President, and be comfortably re-elected.
2) CFC Membership will be up at the start of May, but not reach as high a total as 2000 members.
3) The CFC will not lose buckets of money, but nor will it gain much.
4) The Ontario Chess Association will be widely seen as a positive force for chess in the province, after years of irrelevance at best.
5) NJF [retired Ottawa organizer Neil James Frarey] will resurface and somehow participate in the Ottawa chess scene by the end of the year.
6) Kevin Spraggett's FIDE rating will be less at the end of 2011 than at the start.
Non-Chess Predictions:
7) Neither Isreal nor the USA will premptively attack Iran.
8) War will not break out on the Korean Peninsula.
9) There will not be a Federal Election in Canada.
10) The Ontario Liberal Party will win the provincial election, but will only have a minority government.
11) Sarah Palin will run for President of the United States.
12) The average global temperature will not rise in 2011.
***********************************************
How did my last year's predictions turn out?
Here's the analysis of them :
"My 2010 predictions (as I've posted on the stagnant OCC message board):
Posted on January 1, 2010 at 03:21:18 PM by Kevin Pacey
I'm a day late, but here are my predictions for 2010:
Chess Predictions:
1) NJF [semi-retired Ottawa Organizer Neil James Frarey] may be down, but he is not out. Expect him to sort things thru and launch a revamped OCC message board by the end of the year.
2) Alas, NJF will decide not to run for CFC President this year;
3) Eric Van Dusen will be comfortably re-elected as CFC President;
4) The CFC will not get a new website;
5) The CFC will not lose buckets of money, but nor will it gain much;
6) The EOCA will remain affiliated with the useless Ontario Chess Association;
7) Kevin Spraggett's FIDE rating will be less at the end of 2010 than at the start;
Non-Chess Predictions:
8) Neither the US nor Isreal will premptively strike Iran;
9) The current US President will regain most of his lost popularity, as measured by the polls, by the end of 2010;
10) Because a Health Care bill will pass, the US Congress will remain in Democrat hands in the 2010 Congressional elections, but they will no longer have a filibuster-proof Senate (i.e. 60+ votes);
11) There will be a Federal election in Canada. The Cons will have a strengthened minority as a result, and Iggy will not remain leader of the Grits for long at all afterwards. Jack Layton will continue as NDP leader;
12) The average global temperature will not rise in 2010. Ocean acidification is the next big scare on the horizon."
#1: Wrong. NJF didn't come back to the chess scene (a new OCC message board was launched, but not by him, after the old one expired).
#2: Right.
#3: Wrong. Eric didn't run again to be CFC Prez.
#4: Right. The CFC may get a new website still, but not by tonight :).
#5: Right.
#6: Right.
#7: Right. K.S. finishes 2010 with a 2575 FIDE rating, down from January 2010's rating of 2586.
#8: Right.
#9: Perhaps too close to call. Obama rode higher than in much of 2010 in CNN's last poll, after his last-minute December 2010 legislative victories in the lame duck Congress.
#10: Basically wrong. My only claim to correctness was that a Health Bill was actually passed, but that was perhaps a formality, along with the fact that the Democrats ended up keeping control of (just) the Senate, without a Filibuster-proof majority.
#11: Wrong.
#12: Wrong. The Average Global temperature for 2010 on land & sea surface rose 0.36 C from the 1971-2000 average, according to one December report I saw a link to. Also, there is as yet not a serious panic/awareness about Ocean Acidification.
My total score: 6 correct predictions and 5 wrong predictions plus 1 unsettled result.
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