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Re: THE NEW One and Only Climate Change Whatever...
'This is what Mother Nature looks like, since events even worse than these have happened in the past before greenhouse gases were increasing like they are today. Now, it gives some people great comfort to offer a quick and easy answer when the weather strays from the average rather than to struggle with the real truth, which is, we don't know enough about the climate to even predict events like this' - Dr. John Christy
"A climatologist looking at this heat wave would not be alarmed because the number of daily high temperature records set in the most recent decade was only about half the number set in the 1930s as shown in my written testimony. I suppose most people have forgotten that Oklahoma set a new record low temperature just last year of 31 below. " - Dr. John Christy, Alabama’s State Climatologist, Professor of Atmospheric Science and Director of the Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville
One month to go before all ice disappears from Arctic according to NASA "expert"
“…the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012″
Posted on May 12, 2012 by Anthony Watts
Its always important to remember what has been predicted by the elders of science, and to review those predictions when the time is right. In four months, just 132 days from now at the end of summer on the Autumnal Equinox September 22nd 2012, the Arctic will be “nearly ice free” according to a prominent NASA scientist in a National Geographic article on December 12, 2007.
Man made global warming hoax climate scientists dishonest?
“Prof. Dr H. Stephen Schneider, lead author in Working Group II of the IPCC (said in 1989): ‘For these reasons we have to announce terrifying scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements with no mention of any doubts whatever which we might have. In order to attract attention, we need dramatic statements leaving no doubt about what is said. Every one of us researchers must decide how far he would want to be honest rather than effective.’ ”
To quote Paul he is just an oldtimer that has been brainwashed, with honours and awards rather than money. He's at that point in his career when he is going to be getting close to hanging up the old chalkboard and he does not want his correct climate skepticism to be punished by the climate change fanatics by preventing him emeritus status or fellowships in various science groups. I frankly don't blame him, he's had a good long career so far especially explaining science to non-science majors (you must know what I'm talking about right). Now he doesn't want to be pushed around by the climate change fanatics. As Paul says, an oldtimer who has been brainwashed.
In my opinion the watershed "conversion" by a climate-change skeptic was this article in June 2006 by Michael Shermer, who has written the "Skeptic" column for Scientific American since 2001 (and much else). As-such, he is responsible not only for evaluating the scientific evidence but also determining what is bedrock reliable for general readers amidst the "complexity" noted in his column. This was before the 2007 IPCC 4 report.
The most significant claim in Richard Muller's research is that he has isolated warming to carbon level and human activity to the exclusion of other extant explanations. Here is an analogy in my chess research to what this means.
One of the surprises for me---a dismaying surprise frankly---is that Elo rating obeys a simple linear relationship to my (scaled) Average Error statistic. This is strong enough that I've discarded my pride-and-joy original all-moves-considered regression method in place of a simple one that just fits AE and the first-move-match percentage. This hints---but doesn't entail---that (avoiding) error is the prime determinant of skill at chess, and would be like saying that what matters most in a political campaign is avoiding big gaffes. Well it doesn't have to be like that. As my wife even said today, perhaps error is a by-product of lack of sound strategy, and skill really has to do with consistent strategy and generating challenge on the board.
Well there are statistical techniques to resolve such questions, under the general heading of "ANOVA" (analysis of variance). Roughly speaking this is what Muller has done---he found that human activity and carbon levels correlate so as to account for most of the variance in warming---leaving very little room for other causal factors. I haven't undertaken this in my chess work yet, but things like watching Etienne Bacrot hang a full Rook on Move 31 when he stood better against Hikaru Nakamura in Biel makes me fear that AE will account for most of the difference in results of games...
Last edited by Kenneth Regan; Wednesday, 8th August, 2012, 02:38 PM.
Reason: added "in warming" after "variance"; fixed Robert->Richard
Re: THE NEW One and Only Climate Change Whatever...
Sea ice in the Arctic is being massacred by an enormous cylone; I do not think there will be any sea ice left by September 30th, 2012. That will change our world. I put together this presentation to partially explain my prediction.
Climate to mate humanity in 49 days. Seems like a forced mate to me, although it could be 40 days instead. Of course I may have overlooked some defense (feedback in system) but thus far all the feedbacks are in favor of the climate...
Sea ice in the Arctic is being massacred by an enormous cylone; I do not think there will be any sea ice left by September 30th, 2012. That will change our world. I put together this presentation to partially explain my prediction.
Climate to mate humanity in 49 days. Seems like a forced mate to me, although it could be 40 days instead. Of course I may have overlooked some defense (feedback in system) but thus far all the feedbacks are in favor of the climate...
I predict that humanity will still be doing fine October 1st, 2012 despite Paul's hysterics.
Still you have to admit how very clever of the clyclone to hit us while we are distracted by doings on another planet... Mars. Maybe NASA sent the probe knowing we wouild have to send a select group of humanity to Mars to preserve the human race before September 30th. Even the schlockiest sci-fi writer could not have thought this one up
Mars. Maybe NASA sent the probe knowing we wouild have to send a select group of humanity to Mars to preserve the human race before September 30th. Even the schlockiest sci-fi writer could not have thought this one up
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