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Actually, there is nothing emotional at all about my clearly stated thoughts on the trade and the players involved.
I don't really want to harp on this. If you want on-topic specifics, on this most recent post, I'd contest
the following :
1. Everyone hates the second trade ( an online poll I saw said 60%
thought Jays won trade; sure that's just random ppl ).
2. The Jays gave away far less in the Marlins trade then the Dickey Trade.
Jack Morris was pursued by the whole league because he won games, ate up innings,
and was a clutch performer. None of those qualities would have registered consistantly
on your favorite stats.
Nothing personal I don't expect you to agree.
Last edited by Duncan Smith; Friday, 21st December, 2012, 03:27 AM.
Bindi, we are in the presence of a baseball maven. He's obviously smarter than a bag of fleas when it comes to statistics. :)
Hehe, well I guess everyone has their own opinions on how smart they are. I shouldn't be too surprised.
You're right about Jack Morris, I don't understand the situation - I'm assuming they used wins, losses and playoff performance to determine who gets awarded back then.
As for the first two points, here's how I would put it as
1) When I first saw the trade, I was upset that they were going to include D'arnaud and I wanted something more back if we were going to send our future catcher for a 38 year old knuckerballer, even if he did win the CY young. I wasn't a believer back then and I didn't know anything about Dickey, I thought he was a one year wonder. Then there were rumors that Syndergaard was included. Every Jays fan on all the intelligent blogs out there were pissed and refused to believe that. Mets fans, on the other hand were overjoyed to see it happen. Their best case scenario was D'Arnaud and Gose, while our best case scenario was Gose + Arencibia. Most trades fall in between fan projections you see, so we were thinking D'Arnaud by himself was a fair trade and most fans believed that. After looking at Dickey's stats some more and just from massive reading, I was coming around to liking it. After all, we were a really good team already and adding Dickey would make us the favorite. The over/under on us is 92.5 right now according to Vegas. Our odds are 7.5/1 to win the world series but that number is buoyed by fans buying into the hype. I would think we're one of the top 5 teams in all of baseball, behind teams like Nationals, San Fran and maybe around the same as LA and Tampa. My logical side said this is bad trade, but my emotional side is happy, so I made a compromise and accepted it for what it is, a trade we needed although we did give up a lot. If you listen to Keith Law on ESPN baseball today, he sums it up pretty well (paraphrasing here, Jays gave up a lot but while they were on the edge of playoff contention, now they're the favorites with that one extra piece) Most of the industry raves about the prospects the Mets got back because on paper, it's a fantastic trade for the Mets and while I know we overpaid, I understand why AA did it.
2) D'Arnaud is way above Hechavarria on any list out there. D'Arnaud can hit, play defence, catch, and has power. Hechavarria can only play defence. His hit tool is suspect and he has little power. His Vegas numbers were inflated due to PCL factors and if you saw his numbers in AA, you could see that he was awful. I would think that someone of your alleged background would know a thing or two about prospects.
I hadn't looked at Hechavarria's stats at all; I'll give you that point. Better I note H. Alvarez is not a bad gamble for a team making a complete rebuild.
TBJ are 8-1 odds to win WS according to Vegas odds,lowest currently.But,we all know one factor that can change outcomes-INJURIES! Be safe.....
The futures at this point aren't a good deal anymore, I liked over 88 wins when that was the number. Jays can weather several injuries now, only area lacking depth is big rbi man, so Bautista going down would be material. However, I'd note this pitching staff doesn't need a ton of run support to win.
Nevertheless, if things break well they could win 100 games, even in a tougher American League this season. Potential large upside from Lawrie, Reyes, Morrow. Anything Carbrera, Bonofocio, Lind (?) kick in is a bonus to last years weak bench and left field.
Last edited by Duncan Smith; Sunday, 23rd December, 2012, 01:11 PM.
My guess is 96 wins, which would be one of the better "turn around" seasons in recent time. I'm not sure why you are worried about the bullpen they've been stacking up depth there since the allstar game last year. Much more risk if their big power hitters have bad seasons.
Yes, I'm very optimistic, but this kind of talent infusion is very rare. I think even if they get huge bad luck they win 86 games.
Last edited by Duncan Smith; Sunday, 23rd December, 2012, 09:49 PM.
Which guy do you want ? Sorry, I don't get it. Arencebia's one of the best bargains on the team and his upside is yet to be
established. Jays themselves have let Napoli, Mathis, Buck, Molina, and Barojas go because they liked Arencebia more ( salary and
talent considerations ).
Last edited by Duncan Smith; Monday, 24th December, 2012, 10:40 PM.
Which guy do you want ? Sorry, I don't get it. Arencebia's one of the best bargains on the team and his upside is yet to be
established. Jays themselves have let Napoli, Mathis, Buck, Molina, and Barojas go because they liked Arencebia more ( salary and
talent considerations ).
As much as I love disproving Duncan, unfortunately he has a point here. Arencibia, for all his slightly below-averageness, is a good bargain on this team since he's cheap and league average catchers are tough to find, especially those who aren't injured or don't already play another position (Mauer, Montero etc.) I would think 96 wins is a fairly optimistic figure, I'm of the mind that anywhere between 90-95 will be fine by me. Of course, that is all assuming Johnson and Morrow doesn't get injured 10 games in...
Which guy do you want ? Sorry, I don't get it. Arencebia's one of the best bargains on the team and his upside is yet to be
established.
Posey would be nice at around the same salary but it's not likely. Maybe Hanigan, maybe Suzuki.
Like it or not, Arencebia was calling the games last season and the Jays didn't win very many games. Whatever Arencebia was calling, the hitters were loving it.
You're worrying about bargains but there's no point in buying a Cadillac and using a pipe wrench for a steering wheel to save money.
Now that the regular season is well underway, and going the wrong way for the Jays so far (who aren't even bit by the injury bug yet) :(, has the optimism dried up already for many of the above posters?
Boston and the NYY almost invariably seem to have the best talent money can buy, with their bigger payroll capacity than Toronto, in spite of however promising the Jays look on paper - another reason for pessimism in addition to their trend of recent years to have the injury bug.
I hate long summers without wanting to watch baseball. :(
Anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Murphy's law, by Edward A. Murphy Jr., USAF, Aerospace Engineer
Well, Dickey's personal catcher who came in the trade was shipped to the Minors in March. They had been together for a few seasons. First two games Dickey gets lit up like an Xmas tree.
Buck, the veteran catcher the Jays got and traded away has been real hot so far this season. The one they let get away so far.
The season still has a long way to go but Buerhle and Dickey have to do a bit better (Buerhle got smoked today) and the Jays still need a 2nd baseman. Bonificio made his 4th error of the season today.
Come from behind victories are one of the main reasons I enjoy watching 3 hours of baseball. Hopefully today's game is a sign of more positive things to come.
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