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Fwiw, I suspect the Yankees or Red Sox, if they start losing too much as a given season progresses, will simply go out and trade/pay for the best talent they think they need. Seems like that's what they would have done in previous years as necessary, though I haven't researched that. Just seems like common sense, without research needed.
Anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Murphy's law, by Edward A. Murphy Jr., USAF, Aerospace Engineer
Comparing the Jays with another team is tossing in stuff which makes no difference. Also, I doubt anyone is saying they are already a hopeless case this season as yet.
Let's look at the starters and their ERA at this point of the season. They have been throught the starting rotation twice.
Dickey 8.44 (almost a run per inning he's pitched)
Buehrle 10.24
Johnson 11.05
Morrow 5.59
Happ 3.50 (approx. after tonights game.)
Happ has a good and not so good game, although he won both his games. He's the only starter with a win so far.
True, but the Blue Jays back in the 1980s and early 1990s were one of the biggest payroll teams and brought in players themselves. The whole idea this year was they were going back to that model somewhat now because to not do so might further alienate their fan base which grew last year but put up with a deeply disappointing season.
Injuries played a part but so did their reluctance over 10-15 years to bring in reinforcements midseason ( they have been terrible at this, going with rank rookies
and mediocre bench players instead ). The injuries last season were so severe though I don't blame them for giving up on that one season.
Total payroll numbers are a little misleading because NYY spent a lot on long term contracts years ago. Blue Jays are in year one of a stated 5-6 year plan with a goal of making the playoffs three times in that span. If they stick with it, I expect they'll fill any hole due to injuries or nonperformance. Pitching they may have the guys in minors coming off rehabs ready to go in the summer; hitting they'd have to buy someone from a faltering team.
Jays are not a poor team. Owner has tons of money and the stadium isn't anywhere near full but Toronto has always filled the stadium for a winner.
Comparing the Jays with another team is tossing in stuff which makes no difference. Also, I doubt anyone is saying they are already a hopeless case this season as yet.
Let's look at the starters and their ERA at this point of the season. They have been throught the starting rotation twice.
Dickey 8.44 (almost a run per inning he's pitched)
Buehrle 10.24
Johnson 11.05
Morrow 5.59
Happ 3.50 (approx. after tonights game.)
Happ has a good and not so good game, although he won both his games. He's the only starter with a win so far.
Of course, things could turn around tomorrow....
BTW, Reyes, the SS, hurt himself tonight.
Happ is a great fifth starter, most teams fifth starters are mediocre at best, or a revolving door of guys not really major league ready. The other guys should get much better, but always a chance 1 or 2 of them have a terrible year or get injured.
Stats would suggest Dickey and Buehrle will ride the ups and downs but have a decent season when its all over. Johnson and Morrow have had injuries in the past and pitch like Cy Young at other times. So who knows what they will do. Morrow may be the best of the bunch if he stays healthy.
ps Just watched the game, Happ looked pretty good even though he gave up 4 runs. Losing Reyes hurts, the guy was well on his way to a huge year. The fact they are starting to hit against KC ( a strong pitching team ) is a good sign. Infield is an issue now they are too thin.
Last edited by Duncan Smith; Saturday, 13th April, 2013, 04:05 PM.
Don't get me wrong, I think the Jays almost always start a season with a fine and healthy team, it's just that they're also in a division that's exceptionally strong most years, at least it seems that way to me.
I also grant that having lots of money doesn't always go with wisdom or an all out effort to field a great sports team (I am thinking of the Leafs in particular, especially in the Ballard years - when fans show up even for a losing team night after night, why bother fielding a good team?; still, that may have finally changed, this year).
Last edited by Kevin Pacey; Saturday, 13th April, 2013, 07:20 PM.
Reason: Spacing
Anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Murphy's law, by Edward A. Murphy Jr., USAF, Aerospace Engineer
Stats would suggest Dickey and Buehrle will ride the ups and downs but have a decent season when its all over. Johnson and Morrow have had injuries in the past and pitch like Cy Young at other times. So who knows what they will do. Morrow may be the best of the bunch if he stays healthy.
When the weather warms up the older players should also warm up. I hate to see a veteran steal bases in the cool April air.
Maybe Romero will come around in the minors.
It was nice to see Mark Reynolds hitting so early this season. He had a brutal season last year.
Don't get me wrong, I think the Jays almost always start a season with a fine and healthy team, it's just that they're also in a division that's exceptionally strong most years, at least it seems that way to me.
I also grant that having lots of money doesn't always go with wisdom or an all out effort to field a great sports team (I am thinking of the Leafs in particular, especially in the Ballard years - when fans show up even for a losing team night after night, why bother fielding a good team?; still, that may have finally changed, this year).
The division doesn't seen super strong this year. Tampa traded two starters ( to Kansas City ) for a prospect to save money, and haven't looked real good so far. Yankees to me don't look at all good, Red Sox are playing better then expected after a disaster last year. Orioles had a dream season last year but I highly doubt they'll repeat that success. Nobody looks super good, the Jays I think could have been superb but losing Reyes and Lawrie set them back.
Toronto's pitching is coming around nicely, and the bullpen looks very good ( remember, last year they blew around 6 games in April in the 9th inning ). Most of the moves they made this year center around that starting staff, a vast improvement on what they had last year. Last year by mid-May they basically had no starting staff, now they have 4 previous Cy Young level pitchers off to slow starts in April. Easy to see which situation has more potential.
On that basis alone I still pick Toronto for first with a fairly modest win total required to do so. Boston has a strong bullpen, a decent start, and money to burn if they contend, so maybe they are close.
Last edited by Duncan Smith; Tuesday, 16th April, 2013, 04:04 PM.
Two weeks later, and this is even sadder. If the Jays don't play like a .600 win ball club from here on out, they're finished. I'm probably one of the last ones to give up hope but I can't even bear to watch them play. Watching Sunday's game made me puke. Up 2-1, and Dickey gives up a 2-run home run to Lyle OVERBAY in the 7th inning, .............. How does this even happen? I think I lost more money betting on them the past month than I have on all the other teams out there and recently I just saw this article - http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-b...re-in-trouble/
I know they are not a 9-17 team but they pretty much have to go on a 82-54 tear to make the playoffs. I might have to start watching golf after this season.
I read they will, or maybe have by now, do a MRI on Dickey's neck. Something about a problem which has been bothering him for the last 3 games.
Here's the players notes on him.
"Apr 28 R.A. Dickey (neck) expects to have MRI sometime this week.
Advice: Dickey is dealing with same injury he's pitched with in his last three starts. At this point the MRI is precautionary, but a stint on the disabled list can't be ruled out if more damage is found. Dickey threw seven innings and allowed three runs in a loss Sunday against the Yankees."
Toronto is a great sports town. We all understand there's always next season. :)
John Buck is on his way to a career season at the plate. He's really hitting. Of course, the Jays had to give someone decent up to get someone decent.
Price, who won the Cy Young in the American league last season, is also having his problem early this season. Worse ERA than Dickey and less wins. I guess it's hard to know.
I kind of hate being right about the Jay's ill fortune holding up again this year, even if my conclusions drawn from perceived trends in recent years may have been flawed, according to more knowledgable fans.
It may take only a week or so before I just read the papers once a week to check for any sign of a Jays comeback in the standings (or else watch games when I have nothing else to do), as I've done in later months of a baseball season than May in previous years. Too painful to do otherwise.
I can use my evenings without baseball to decide what to do in my next term as a CFC Governor, if I run and am elected. Kind of reluctant to, as there's no sign of a CFC presidential candidate appearing yet, let alone a good one. One poor or non-communicative CFC president might be all it takes to send the CFC into a serious slide. At least 2 EOCA Governors are already planning not to run again, and at last years OCA AGM a faction from Toronto tried to take one more Governor for itself at EOCA expense (the minutes are archived on the CFC Website).
Anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Murphy's law, by Edward A. Murphy Jr., USAF, Aerospace Engineer
That's refreshing to read, but the topic is the Blue Jays.
Bindi mentioned switching to watching golf. I thought I'd let him know what I'd do, possibly even sooner than next baseball season. Plus this is a chess message board, so I thought I'd slip some reference to it in, off-topic I admit. :)
Anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Murphy's law, by Edward A. Murphy Jr., USAF, Aerospace Engineer
The Blue Jays are rough to watch and i have heard rumors that there is a CFC presidential candidate in the wings.
Interesting. Hope at least one person announces soon, to start a (public) race for the presidency going.
Regarding the Blue Jays, I didn't think there was much I could add at this point. Like I alluded to might happen, by even this point in the season, at least, the Jays have dropped at least 3 points (or less) more out of a playoff spot per month. Boston and the NY Yankees are both at the top of the East. Indeed, the East currently is the strongest division in the American league, when comparing first through fifth place teams in each division to each other (plus both wildcard spots are held by East teams). The Jays are slowly accumulating injured players.
I'd say I rest my case, but then I recall Churchill saying that there are two kinds of victory, initial and ultimate...
Last edited by Kevin Pacey; Tuesday, 30th April, 2013, 09:36 AM.
Reason: Grammar
Anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Murphy's law, by Edward A. Murphy Jr., USAF, Aerospace Engineer
There are 30 teams in the majors. 15 in the American League and 15 in the National League. At the end of the season there can be only one team which wins the world series.
Saying any one of them will not be the one is always a safe bet. You have 29 out of 30 chances of being right.
Injuries are part of the game. Lots of injured players on the teams including stars. Some teams have the depth to plug the holes and others don't.
A couple of the Jays new pitchers have come from the National league to the American League and might not be very familiar with the hitters. They also have to get used to a new catcher. It could take them a season to get comfortable.
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