Pacey Jays Call - Mega Mistake ?

[Duncan Smith]

Kevin Pacey declared the Jays officially out of the playoff hunt on May 10th. It occurs to me that while the Jays likely will miss the playoffs, the probability that Kevin has made a one of the worst calls in baseball history is very real ( not likely but real ).

So this is the thread to follow the Jays playoff hopes and hopefully they recover enough to make Kevin sweat out his premature call.

Several aspects have to come together to enable an enormous mistake. First, you need the opportunity presented of a talented team running into bad luck and starting very poorly. Second, they have to turn around their season in a major way ( this is a BIG IF so far ). Third, you need someone who bases their call on pretty superficial reasons ( thus vastly understating the odds of a turnaround ). That person has to be unaware of historical comebacks of the past ( eg Cito Gaston led a Jays team to the playoffs that had pretty much the same start as this team ). And overconfidance in those faulty reasons leads to writing off ALL chances.

Should be fun if any of this comes to fruition. Real Jays fans can enjoy it regardless of whether they get a sniff of the playoffs because frankly even playing a significant winning record second half bodes well for their chances in 2014 ( almost every strong player is under contract and the minor league system is quite good ).

[Tom O'Donnell]

Re: Pacey Jays Call - Mega Mistake ?

... Third, you need someone who bases their call on pretty superfluous reasons that vastly understates the odds of a turnaround. ...

Do you mean superficial?

[Kevin Pacey]

Re: Pacey Jays Call - Mega Mistake ?

Superficial or not, I'll stick with my call that the Jays season is pretty much shot, even after the last couple of Jays wins. :)

[Duncan Smith]

Re: Pacey Jays Call - Mega Mistake ?

Do you mean superficial?

Yes, a few edits needed.

[Duncan Smith]

Re: Pacey Jays Call - Mega Mistake ?

Superficial or not, I'll stick with my call that the Jays season is pretty much shot, even after the last couple of Jays wins. :)

Jays have until late July to go on a run similar to what the Detroit Tigers just completed. Beating two of Boston's best pitchers only hints that they may be capable of such a run; my main concern is whether Morrow is hurt or not.

[Duncan Smith]

Re: Pacey Jays Call - Mega Mistake ?

Superficial or not, I'll stick with my call that the Jays season is pretty much shot, even after the last couple of Jays wins. :)

Apparently, having Kevin Pacey write off your season is a good sign of a turnaround.

[Kevin Pacey]

Re: Pacey Jays Call - Mega Mistake ?

Apparently, having Kevin Pacey write off your season is a good sign of a turnaround.

I'm happy to help. :)

I rooted blindly for the Leafs for 40 years, and that jinx still hasn't worn off for them.

I'll be quite happy if the Jays prove me wrong this season. At least I never got angry at them like you did, not that long ago, in the other Blue Jays thread, Duncan.

[Duncan Smith]

Re: Pacey Jays Call - Mega Mistake ?

I'm never angry with the Jays, if I wanted to follow your example on the Leafs they'd become my most hated team right ? It's not me assuming every Jays team becomes bad preseason simply because of the uniform they wear and the turf they play on.

[Jordan S. Berson]

Re: Pacey Jays Call - Mega Mistake ?

The Montreal Expos have a better chance of being re-established into MLB and winning this season's World Series than the Jays do of just making the playoffs.

There, I said it!!!!

Jordan :D

[Brad Thomson]

Re: Pacey Jays Call - Mega Mistake ?

Well, the Leafs would agree that it is never over until it is over.

[Kevin Pacey]

Re: Pacey Jays Call - Mega Mistake ?

To be clear, I quit rooting for the Leafs after 40 years, after they failed to make the playoffs for the third season in a row (their record since the days they were called the Saint Pats). They then missed the playoffs for another six seasons. I snapped, and vowed that I would be like Snoopy in the Peanuts cartoons and celebrate with the victors, rather than suffer with the vanquished at the end of a season, like Charlie Brown. Snoopy represents realism among sports fans or people in general, as opposed to diehard masochism.

I only hate a team that I am [about to be] no longer a fan of (or haven't been a fan of).

[Gary Ruben]

Re: Pacey Jays Call - Mega Mistake ?

The Montreal Expos have a better chance of being re-established into MLB and winning this season's World Series than the Jays do of just making the playoffs.

There, I said it!!!!

Jordan :D

The Montreal Expos are the Washington Nationals these days. At least Montreal has a ball team for whom to cheer, even if it's from afar. CFA in reverse.

[Duncan Smith]

Re: Pacey Jays Call - Mega Mistake ?

I tend to appreciate a well played game or a strong effort rather then focus entirely on W/L and end results. Some of the best teams I've played on or coached were not the ultimate winners, and occasionally some of the least enjoyable teams did win. Every new team has its own personality and charm, and its the journey that is the value in the exercise.

I'll always be a Jays fan, have been since inception, and there is no masochism involved at all.

[Duncan Smith]

Re: Pacey Jays Call - Mega Mistake ?

The Montreal Expos have a better chance of being re-established into MLB and winning this season's World Series than the Jays do of just making the playoffs.

There, I said it!!!!

Jordan :D

What odds are you granting on the Jays making the playoffs ? Let's quantify which one of you is the most absurd on this topic. Maybe you and Pacey can auction off the highest odds and we can then see who wants the action.

[Kevin Pacey]

Re: Pacey Jays Call - Mega Mistake ?

I've put more emphasis on sporting results since I've gotten older. Maybe I've become just truer to most North Americans' values!? I can hardly stand to watch a whole sports game of any kind anymore, but I keep up with the results. Reminds me of the guy (Slater?!) who chipped in big $ for the 1972 Fischer-Spassky match, just because he was interested in results, after Fischer whined for more prize $ for the match, if I recall correctly.

As far as the Jays go, I hope they didn't waste the bulk of their hitting power for some time to come on just the most recent games that they've won. All those runs could come in handy in closer games.

Unfortunately for the Jays, its not just that they now need to win a lot of games, but also that all their rivals in front of them also have to lose enough games. I don't forsee any of the top three teams in the AL East, alone, collapsing enough for the Jays to pass at least one of them. Aside from that possibility, a team from another division might grab the AL second wildcard.

Btw, my original criteria, in years past, for a team probably being doomed, was 8 1/2 games back of the last wildcard spot available. I thought I'd round it up to 9 games to save some space on chesstalk, besides improving my odds of being right. :D

I have to tip my hat to the Jays mini-turnaround. They are out of my zone of doom and defeat, for the moment. Maybe I should have defered to Zaun and made it 10 games being out of being the last wildcard spot. I made my call at a mere 9 1/2 back for the Jays.