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Harris campaign continues to steamroll forward and Trump continues to collapse, but a lot could happen between now and November. Very difficult to gauge the speed of change and there is always a lag between the polls and what if the election were today.
I will summarize my updated prediction as such:
Democrats safe and likely votes 270, add Nevada 6, total 276. My last if election were held today prediction, Harris 276, Trump 262.
The balance of the battleground states are very close to joining Harris column, but hard to say exactly when.
But I believe they will all shortly be there, if trends continue.
So: add Arizona 11, Georgia 16, North Carolina 16, 43 +276 = 319 - most likely Harris total in election.
If predictions of a landslide are realized, add Florida 30, Texas 40, Maine 1 district, 319 +71 = 390
Will any of the hard core Red states join the landslide?? Probably not.
So most likely prediction as of today - Harris 319 Trump 219.
If these kind of numbers start showing up soon in national polls, we have to wonder at the reaction from Republicans / the hard right / the evangelicals. Trump is seen by many in these groups as a God- given Savior for America. They are chomping at the bit for Trump to retake the White House.
If it's a landslide for Harris, I fully expect and predict waves of violence / disobedience and perhaps civil war instigated by these groups. If it's a very close result, they might be restrained to fighting the results politically.
There will in either case be efforts to get some red states to secede from the United States.
If it's a landslide for Harris, I fully expect and predict waves of violence / disobedience and perhaps civil war instigated by these groups. If it's a very close result, they might be restrained to fighting the results politically.
If it's a landslide for Harris, then many soft MAGA voters have seen thru the BS. Waves of violence and/or attempts at cheating are less likely. No telling what a hard core MAGA base might try, but without widespread support, it will not succeed.
If it's a landslide for Harris, then many soft MAGA voters have seen thru the BS. Waves of violence and/or attempts at cheating are less likely. No telling what a hard core MAGA base might try, but without widespread support, it will not succeed.
I hope you are correct, in both the landslide prediction and the comments above. My concern is based on the fact it didn't take tens of thousands of people to bring about the "Jan 6th" insurrection.
Nationally it might not be widespread support for MAGA, but regionally and in hard-core red states,
you have to account for majority supporting MAGA and you have to account for the passion and willingness to possibly resort to violence. True, it might not succeed, but after how much rioting and other bad behavior? The anti-war stuff in the 1960s might pale by comparison. My prediction if there's a Harris landslide is for huge swaths of violence in the hard red states.
Meanwhile, what becomes of Trump himself? Again, I can't see him just riding off into the sunset. He will likely lead a secession movement.
Former President Donald Trump has maintained his lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, and support for Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s independent campaign continues to decline.
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Former President Donald Trump has maintained his lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, and support for Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s independent campaign continues to decline.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, in a two-way matchup, 49% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for Trump, while 44% would vote for Harris. Four percent (4%) say they’d vote for some other candidate and three percent (3%) are undecided. These findings are nearly unchanged from a week ago, which was the second survey since President Joe Biden announced he would withdraw his reelection bid. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free) or follow us on Facebook. Let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.
The survey of 1,794 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on August 1 and 4-7, 2024 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research.
Rasmussen Reports is a media company specializing in the collection, publication and distribution of public opinion information.
We conduct public opinion polls on a variety of topics to inform our audience on events in the news and other topics of interest. To ensure editorial control and independence, we pay for the polls ourselves and generate revenue through the sale of subscriptions, sponsorships, and advertising. Nightly polling on politics, business and lifestyle topics provides the content to update the Rasmussen Reports web site many times each day. If it's in the news, it's in our polls. Additionally, the data drives a daily update newsletter and various media outlets across the country.
Some information, including the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and commentaries are available for free to the general public. Subscriptions are available for $4.95 a month or 34.95 a year that provide subscribers with exclusive access to more than 20 stories per week on upcoming elections, consumer confidence, and issues that affect us all. For those who are really into the numbers, Platinum Members can review demographic crosstabs and a full history of our data.
- Although public opinion of teachers’ unions have improved in the past four years, half of Americans still think the unions care less about education than about protecting their members’ jobs.
- Controversy over so-called DEI (“diversity, equity and inclusion”) policies has intruded on this year’s presidential campaign, with some critics accusing Vice President Kamala Harris of being a “DEI hire.”
- Economic confidence decreased to 100.9 in this month’s Rasmussen Reports Economic Index, more than four points lower than July.
Visit the Rasmussen Reports home page for the latest current polling coverage of events in the news. The page is updated several times each day.
Remember, if it's in the news, it's in our polls.
Rasmussen Reports is a media company specializing in the collection, publication and distribution of public opinion information.
We conduct public opinion polls on a variety of topics to inform our audience on events in the news and other topics of interest. To ensure editorial control and independence, we pay for the polls ourselves and generate revenue through the sale of subscriptions, sponsorships, and advertising. Nightly polling on politics, business and lifestyle topics provides the content to update the Rasmussen Reports web site many times each day. If it's in the news, it's in our polls. Additionally, the data drives a daily update newsletter and various media outlets across the country.
Some information, including the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and commentaries are available for free to the general public. Subscriptions are available for $4.95 a month or 34.95 a year that provide subscribers with exclusive access to more than 20 stories per week on upcoming elections, consumer confidence, and issues that affect us all. For those who are really into the numbers, Platinum Members can review demographic crosstabs and a full history of our data.
“Show me a Man that gets rich by being a Politician and I’ll show you a Crook…” -President Harry Truman.
The following quote is from an article at lifestyleasia.com in which they cite Forbes as their source for the net worth information on VP Harris. I tried to verify the info at Forbes but apparently I've read too many free articles this month and the pay wall denied access. Here's the text from lifestyleasia.com:
"According to Forbes, Kamala Harris has a net worth of around USD 8 million in 2024. However, the figure includes the wealth of her husband, Doug Emhoff.
The publication estimated her net worth at USD 7 million in 2021 and USD 6 million in 2019, the year Kamala Harris announced her candidature for The White House as Democratic Party leader. In both cases, Emhoff’s wealth was included." https://www.lifestyleasia.com/bk/cul...erties-salary/
So where is your info from? Should readers assume that your Biden info is also false?
Last edited by Peter McKillop; Monday, 12th August, 2024, 05:45 PM.
"We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office." - Aesop
"Only the dead have seen the end of war." - Plato
"If once a man indulges himself in murder, very soon he comes to think little of robbing; and from robbing he comes next to drinking and Sabbath-breaking, and from that to incivility and procrastination." - Thomas De Quincey
....
So where is your info from? Should readers assume that your Biden info is also false?
From a March, 2024, article at Yahoo Finance:
"Biden’s actual net worth is about $10 million, according to Forbes, which referred to him as “Middle-Class Joe” (though, in fairness, there’s nothing “middle class” about being worth $10 million).
PolitiFact referred to Biden as one of Congress’ “least wealthy members” before he became vice-president under President Barack Obama and then president himself. As president, Biden’s wealth has increased from about $8 million when he took office to about $10 million.
But as Forbes pointed out, the increase has “nothing to do with family business dealings in far-flung countries,” as some of Biden’s political opponents have claimed. Instead, Forbes wrote, Biden is “getting richer by doing what a lot of 80-year-old Americans are doing: sitting on real estate.” The president owns two homes in Delaware worth an estimated $7 million combined. Thanks to the red-hot housing market in recent years, those homes are now worth nearly $1.8 million more than they were when Biden took office."
"We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office." - Aesop
"Only the dead have seen the end of war." - Plato
"If once a man indulges himself in murder, very soon he comes to think little of robbing; and from robbing he comes next to drinking and Sabbath-breaking, and from that to incivility and procrastination." - Thomas De Quincey
"Biden’s actual net worth is about $10 million, according to Forbes, which referred to him as “Middle-Class Joe” (though, in fairness, there’s nothing “middle class” about being worth $10 million).
PolitiFact referred to Biden as one of Congress’ “least wealthy members” before he became vice-president under President Barack Obama and then president himself. As president, Biden’s wealth has increased from about $8 million when he took office to about $10 million.
But as Forbes pointed out, the increase has “nothing to do with family business dealings in far-flung countries,” as some of Biden’s political opponents have claimed. Instead, Forbes wrote, Biden is “getting richer by doing what a lot of 80-year-old Americans are doing: sitting on real estate.” The president owns two homes in Delaware worth an estimated $7 million combined. Thanks to the red-hot housing market in recent years, those homes are now worth nearly $1.8 million more than they were when Biden took office."
Sorry, Peter, but you are referencing the same media that insisted on the Russia impeachment trials as valid when they were later found to be invalid and the same media that supported the Ukraine impeachment trials that turned out to be fraudulent.
The best source of information on how much money was transferred to President Biden was his son's infamous laptops, initially called "Russian disinformation" by 5! lying intelligence agents that have now been deemed to be valid in the court of law in the Hunter Gun possession trial. Over 220000 emails have now been forensically confirmed as valid and outline 10s of millions of dollars of transactions garnered under an influence-pedaling scheme that has netted President Biden tens of Million of dollars. As recently as 2008, Biden was worth a mere -30k.
President Truman knew what he was talking about
"Biden’s actual net worth is about $10 million, according to Forbes, which referred to him as “Middle-Class Joe” (though, in fairness, there’s nothing “middle class” about being worth $10 million).
PolitiFact referred to Biden as one of Congress’ “least wealthy members” before he became vice-president under President Barack Obama and then president himself. As president, Biden’s wealth has increased from about $8 million when he took office to about $10 million.
But as Forbes pointed out, the increase has “nothing to do with family business dealings in far-flung countries,” as some of Biden’s political opponents have claimed. Instead, Forbes wrote, Biden is “getting richer by doing what a lot of 80-year-old Americans are doing: sitting on real estate.” The president owns two homes in Delaware worth an estimated $7 million combined. Thanks to the red-hot housing market in recent years, those homes are now worth nearly $1.8 million more than they were when Biden took office."
Peter, how can you be so naïve as to forget that 'power corrupts'? Only in a Libertarian system, where politicians do not have any power over others, can a 'government' be non-corrupt!
"Biden’s actual net worth is about $10 million, according to Forbes, which referred to him as “Middle-Class Joe” (though, in fairness, there’s nothing “middle class” about being worth $10 million).
PolitiFact referred to Biden as one of Congress’ “least wealthy members” before he became vice-president under President Barack Obama and then president himself. As president, Biden’s wealth has increased from about $8 million when he took office to about $10 million.
But as Forbes pointed out, the increase has “nothing to do with family business dealings in far-flung countries,” as some of Biden’s political opponents have claimed. Instead, Forbes wrote, Biden is “getting richer by doing what a lot of 80-year-old Americans are doing: sitting on real estate.” The president owns two homes in Delaware worth an estimated $7 million combined. Thanks to the red-hot housing market in recent years, those homes are now worth nearly $1.8 million more than they were when Biden took office."
I have seen Sid's reply to this and thought I would remind you Peter that these far-right people maintain their world of "alternative facts" against any and all counter-evidence. When necessary, they just trot out the "fake news, deep state" narrative.
And they really go ballistic when someone gives them the same treatment. Sid has so many countless times ranted against attacking the messenger rather than the message. But he will do it himself whenever it is all he has.
This is all getting SOOOO banal.....
And still we have Dilip in his alternative world where there is a large group of dedicated Libertarians of pure goodness waiting to get into power and save us all because they, the pure, the holy, would never dare partake in corruption. .... LOL
Trump going to jail would be great but hopefully due to the proper trial process, not due to election results.
Democrats need to focus on winning the election. Harris is ahead in the polls but a landslide win is far from certain.
Sid notes the Rasmussen polls have Trump in the lead, but then Rasmussen has been an outlier poll for years.
Latest poll from Morning Consult has Harris up 47 to 44.
The positive Harris-Walz message has been a welcome relief to voters. They are tired of the gloom and doom messages, at least according to Republican pollster Frank Luntz.
Democrats need to keep fighting as if they are losing.
Trump going to jail would be great but hopefully due to the proper trial process, not due to election results.
Democrats need to focus on winning the election. Harris is ahead in the polls but a landslide win is far from certain.
Sid notes the Rasmussen polls have Trump in the lead, but then Rasmussen has been an outlier poll for years.
Latest poll from Morning Consult has Harris up 47 to 44.
The positive Harris-Walz message has been a welcome relief to voters. They are tired of the gloom and doom messages, at least according to Republican pollster Frank Luntz.
Democrats need to keep fighting as if they are losing.
The 'not so rich' MAJORITY are obviously supportive of the far-left Kamala-Walz stealing from the rich MINORITY to distribute some freebies to them...
Instead, we should vote for someone who can prevent crooks from illegitimately getting rich and give an opportunity to everyone to work hard and smart in order to get rich... Two wrongs do not make a right!
Last edited by Dilip Panjwani; Wednesday, 14th August, 2024, 10:26 AM.
Dilip does NOT accept the will of the majority..........legal taxation on a progressive basis. Though passed by the majority, Dilip considers it ILLEGAL, somehow an illegitimate law.
He is looking for some solution to this problem, as he sees it, other than Libertarianism being successful at forming the government in Canada, as elected by the majority, or in coalition, becoming the government.
This certainly, in my mind at least, makes me fear, should it ever come to pass, Dilip being the Libertarianism's "Interpreter of the Natural Law".
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