Prediction - US Presidential 2024

[Dilip Panjwani]

Bob, as Tom had indicated here on chesstalk quite a while ago, Libertarian can be considered 'on the left' also.
The fact is that it brings the best from the Left and the Right, while getting rid of the stupidity on both sides. You need to try some memory boosting and thought-clarifying pills, if available in Helms Deep, Bob.

[Bob Armstrong]

Democratic Marxism & Libertarianism

Our resident Libertarian - agrees that DM's view of Capitalism/The Stock Market........(drum roll)....is CORRECT!

Dilip (Post 243): "if you believe that the system of stock markets is overall a negative for society, and a necessary evil of Capitalism, you are right... "

Then Dilip gets confused:

"the good news for you is that in Libertarianism, they would not be necessary.."

Sorry Dilip, BUT Libertarianism IS one of the types of Capitalism (The worst form - Wild West Capitalism - no regulatory reigning in of Capitalism's worst excesses [Right - The Natural Law is going to do it - sigh]).

At least Social Democracy (Scandinavian - Another type of Capitalism) does, somewhat effectively, use regulatory control of Capitalism, and has succeeded in being dubbed: "Capitalism with a human face".



24/11/10 Helms Deep Report

[NOTE: Since there is now a new Fb thread, The Trump 2nd Term, I will stop posting here, and go there. Trump has resoundingly conned the majority of Americans - the election is over; there will be an orderly transition of power; lets see what the Republicans do with absolute administrative control. This is the purpose of the new thread.......I fear the coming Helms Deep Reports will be somewhat disconcerting to the Trump electorate.]

[Dilip Panjwani]

The first consequence of the Trump victory was a surge in the stock market.

This does not help the ordinary working person in the USA......money made for shareholders.

Let's see what other benefits come to the elite.......the ordinary smart-working Trump elector will, in the long run, find they are still being left behind.



24/11/9 Report from Helms Deep

Good to hear from Helms Deep!
btw, workers' pension fund, insurance funds, etc. are all invested in the stock market, and would benefit. Also the companies would be able to issue more shares to expand their business, thereby creating a higher demand for workers, which translates into higher wages...
Nevertheless if you believe that the system of stock markets is overall a negative for society, and a necessary evil of Capitalism, you are right... the good news for you is that in Libertarianism, they would not be necessary, because of the system of easy access to capital and 'co-operative' ventures by individuals who actually run the company, entrepreneurs and workers together... almost like your Marxism but with total freedom from government harassment....

[Bob Armstrong]

The first consequence of the Trump victory was a surge in the stock market.

This does not help the ordinary working person in the USA......money made for shareholders.

Let's see what other benefits come to the elite.......the ordinary smart-working Trump elector will, in the long run, find they are still being left behind.



24/11/9 Report from Helms Deep

[Vlad Drkulec]

1) Nowadays "literally" means "figuratively" in a hyperbolic way. We know this from the Rachel Maddow defense vs OAN. (Search for the word "literally" to see the relevant part).

Microsoft Word - 19cv1713 - Mtn Strike anti-SLAPP final.docx

2) Tracking down the dozens of TV examples would be tedious. Here's some links to online articles from allegedly reputable sources. I think they are all garbage.

The Scary Parallels Between Trump and Mussolini — History News Network

Trump Is Speaking Like Hitler, Stalin, and Mussolini - The Atlantic

Opinion: Would Trump stop free elections? Hitler and Mussolini's paths could be a clue - Los Angeles Times

MSNBC’s Claire McCaskill Argues Trump ‘Even More Dangerous’ Than Hitler: ‘The Only Philosophy He Has’ is Self-Interest

After Calling Foes ‘Vermin,’ Trump Campaign Warns Its Critics Will Be ‘Crushed’ - The New York Times

I think the interesting point of all this is that by crying wolf over and over, they lost all credibility. Once you lose credibility its hard to get it back. Without credibility and likeability, you don't have influence. Baron Trump may have been the secret weapon in appealing to young men as he told Trump who he was listening to and Donald went on all of the relevant podcasts.

[Dilip Panjwani]

The Marxist-minded guys are forgetting that Trump won because of massive support from the 'working class' citizens of America. Why did they support him? Because of the Marxist-minded Democrats printing a lot of inflation causing dollars (as not enough could be stolen from the hard and smart-working)…
And whatever was printed (and stolen) went to inefficient, wasteful and even harmful 'government spending'...
Bob A is hoping that the Trump supporters will be 'shocked' at what they will get... 'shocked' at finally being able to make a decent living out of your own hard and smart work, without having to depend on stolen money? Unfortunately, Bob A will not get this straight, as he is hiding somewhere in 'Helms Deep'...

[Bob Gillanders]

The Majority of Americans have spoken clearly - they want the New Golden Age that Trump represents.



They feel they started to get it in Trump's 1st presidency, and then fell behind under Biden when he put together a new majority.

They want Trump to now continue to implement his brave new world.......and I believe he will for them, and for his oligarch friends, and for his authoritarian leader friends around the globe.

He is very clear on his right-wing agenda......his voters cannot claim later that he said one thing, and did another.

And his electors are going to be shocked at what they asked for, and will get!

Bob A (Democratic Marxist)

Hi Bob.

The phrase you are looking for is "be careful what you wish for, you might just get it"

I am under the weather with a cold, not TDS. Thank god the election is finally over.
I haven't the strength nor the inclination to argue on chesstalk, but have been listening to a variety of voices to understand why my prediction was wrong.
Now that the fever pitch of the election is over, some pundits are giving a more thoughtful analysis of what happened. But some are not.

I was going to share a few nuggets of insight, but my headache is not allowing it.
I will save it for another day.

Relax....hmmmmm

[Sid Belzberg]

Election 'whale' bettor made much more on Trump win than originally thought, analysis shows

Chainalysis estimates French individual ‘Theo’ made closer to $84 million, not $48 million

By Kristen Altus FOXBusinessElection bettors are buying Donald Trump: Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour


Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour discusses the business of election betting on 'Making Money.'

Millions of Americans placed election prediction bets in the weeks leading up to Election Day, and one of those market bettors is walking away with much more than previously estimated.

A French individual known by the name of "Theo" originally put more than $30 million on a Donald Trump White House win on the crypto-based trading platform Polymarket.

The anonymous bettor was originally projected to take home a profit of $48 million on the wager, but blockchain data firm Chainalysis provided an update on Thursday that the profit number is actually closer to $84 million.

"We identified a 10th address associated with ‘Theo’ which increases the estimated total profit by $4.8M to $83.5M," Chainalysis’ X account posted. "An 11th address is suspected with another $2.1M profit, but unconfirmed."

S.E.C. COMMISSIONER BACKS TRUMP'S PLAN TO END CRYPTO CRACKDOWN

Polymarket gamblers allegedly spent $3.7 billion in election bets, and even more money was spent on competitor platforms like Robinhood, Kalshi, Interactive Brokers and PredictIt.

The anonymous French election bettor known as "Theo" made upwards of $80 million off the former president's 2024 win. (Getty Images)

Just hours before Election Day, Polymarket, which is the largest prediction market, saw Trump as having a 58.1% chance of taking back the White House, compared to Vice President Kamala Harris at 41.9%.

Kalshi traders saw Trump with a 55% chance of victory, to Harris' 45%, and RealClearPolitics betting odds data collectively gave the former president a 57.9% chance of winning the election, compared to Harris' 40.7%.

"Theo" exclusively spoke to the Wall Street Journal during a Zoom call last week where he said: "My intent is just making money… I have absolutely no political agenda."

GET FOX BUSINESS ON THE GO BY CLICKING HERE
videoTrump is clearly the better option for the economy, financial markets: Stephanie Pomboy


MacroMavens founder and President Stephanie Pomboy analyzes the U.S. economy on Election Day.

Theo was originally believed to have four Polymarket accounts, but Chainalysis additionally claimed it could be as many as 11.

Polymarket is a relatively new trading platform, created just four years ago, but proved to be a way to keep American voters engaged throughout the 2024 election cycle.

[Bob Armstrong]

Conservative Party of Canada Policies

Bob Gillanders Post # 215 (24/11/8):

"I was wondering if you could summarize a few key promises of Polievre. Hope to get current soon. Thanks."



My Response: I have now started a new thread: Canada & Conservatism.

My first post deals with the Con's Housing Policy.

I suggest this topic now continue there. Thanks.

Bob A (Democratic Marxist)

[Vlad Drkulec]

I am very sorry to hear that Vlad.

Yugoslavia under Tito was Communism walking to a national tune.....Tito did march to his own Communist drummer and tried to stay independent of USSR.

But they were definitely NOT Democratic Marxists.....the exact opposite, though somewhat looser than in the USSR.

Bob A (Democratic Marxist)

They claimed that they were democratic and Marxists. The problem Bob, is that Marxists do not remain democratic for long. No one is in greater danger than the people who usher in a Marxist revolution. In the end, there can only be one leader and everyone who is a threat to that leader will die.

Yugoslavia spied on expatriates. They paid people to spy on expatriates. They sent people with diplomatic passports with fake stories to possibly evaluate a target into our home. There was no CSIS back then, so shortly thereafter the RCMP paid us a visit. They assassinated expatriates in Canada, the U.S. and Europe and possibly elsewhere. After Yugoslavia fell my uncle and cousin were allowed to see the files on family members including my father who had a thick file. They were not allowed to copy them but were allowed to take notes. All informants were identified extensively in those files. They fomented dissension among ex-pat communities so that agitators hatched their own death plots. It was an interesting era and contributed to making me who I am.

Some people temporarily profited from the kleptocracy. The good communists that were awarded my grandfather's farm when my grandfather fled because he was told that they were going to kill him and grandmother was thrown in jail had to move their pigs from the barn into the main house. (Do you realize how bad pigs smell?) They were not farmers. They didn't know how to farm. They couldn't run a farm but the authorities expected them to pay taxes at the same rate that the previous owners paid and they too wound up in jail when they didn't produce the required tribute.

Our family was not unique based on everything I have heard from people from Croatia.

[Vlad Drkulec]

Some of you might be missing something about the "cheating".

If indeed such cheating did happen and it was mostly HIspanic illegals .... well, the Hispanic vote has now switched over the the Republicans.

Which means now we could see a complete flip ... Republicans will now want more Hispanic illegals to swarm into US and to continue the cheating, voting red. And it now might be the Republicans who try and fast-track legal status for the illegals.

I don't believe it was Hispanic illegals. I think it was dumps of counterfeit ballots, for the most part, which were not properly scrutinized. If the recent elections were close, it might have happened again. They probably hadn't printed enough ballots. I suspect that it will all come out now, though much of the evidence has been destroyed often contrary to law.

I would not make this a priority of the new regime as there are more pressing matters.

All the stonewalling around releasing documents and evidence like the recordings of the interviews with Biden by the special prosecutor will now end. Biden should not be prosecuted for the things his administration did, but there should be a full public airing. First though, they have to fix the mess that Kamala made which was probably one of their best slogans.

[Dilip Panjwani]

Start believing in the power of your spending. If you EN MASSE don't buy the frivolous non-essential things, the world economic system collapses and we get the change we are striving for.

That is debunked left-wing economics. Trump would be most happy if the citizens stop wasting money on frivolous stuff and instead spend it on useful things like energy generation (as you suggest), because that will make American economy and society as a whole much better!

[Dilip Panjwani]

I am very sorry to hear that Vlad.

Yugoslavia under Tito was Communism walking to a national tune.....Tito did march to his own Communist drummer and tried to stay independent of USSR.

But they were definitely NOT Democratic Marxists.....the exact opposite, though somewhat looser than in the USSR.

Bob A (Democratic Marxist)

Whether the Marxists in Yugoslavia were democratic or not, the fact remains that Marxism, by eventually making society poorer and unhappy and chaotic for all citizens, leads to their inner demons manifesting and creating the atrocities Vlad described...

[Pargat Perrer]

Yes. With more scrutiny and fewer ways to cheat, Democrats lost something like ten million votes. With Hitler running and democracy at stake. It makes you wonder.

Some of you might be missing something about the "cheating".

If indeed such cheating did happen and it was mostly HIspanic illegals .... well, the Hispanic vote has now switched over the the Republicans.

Which means now we could see a complete flip ... Republicans will now want more Hispanic illegals to swarm into US and to continue the cheating, voting red. And it now might be the Republicans who try and fast-track legal status for the illegals.

[Bob Armstrong]

I am very sorry to hear that Vlad.

Yugoslavia under Tito was Communism walking to a national tune.....Tito did march to his own Communist drummer and tried to stay independent of USSR.

But they were definitely NOT Democratic Marxists.....the exact opposite, though somewhat looser than in the USSR.

Bob A (Democratic Marxist)