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NEW POLLS SHOW TRUMP LEADING IN KEY BATTLEGROUND STATES Fresh Polls by Trafalgar and Insider Advantage from seven battleground states suggest Trump could win the election with 296 electoral votes: - Michigan: Trump leads 47% to 46.6%. - Pennsylvania: Trump ahead 47% to 45%. - Wisconsin: Trump edges out Harris 47% to 46%. - Arizona: Trump holds a slight lead at 49% to 48%. - Nevada: Trump leads 48% to 47%. - North Carolina: Trump is ahead 49% to 48%. - Georgia: Harris narrowly leads 48% to 47.6%. These polls indicate a shift from recent surveys showing Kamala gaining in key states. Source: Trafalgar, NY Post
Thanks for the heads up on those polls. I checked the RCP website, and they are included in their summary of most recent polls.
The RCP Average for Battleground states does show Harris still leading in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
This would give her the bare minimum of 270 to win.
Thanks for the heads up on those polls. I checked the RCP website, and they are included in their summary of most recent polls.
The RCP Average for Battleground states does show Harris still leading in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
This would give her the bare minimum of 270 to win.
To close for anyone to get comfortable.
Hey Bob G ,
You should be VERY comfortable, "lawsuits and bullets" style campaigns have served the likes of Chavez and Maduro well
for a long time. I mean, really, who needs campaign interiews when you can just have your opponent killed by shooting him in the face?
Of course, you prefer to ignore that inconvenient truth. Have you read the early findings of the House committee?
Your so-called democratic party are nothing but corrupted tyrannical thugs.
Last edited by Sid Belzberg; Wednesday, 4th September, 2024, 07:41 AM.
Presidential debate on Sept. 10th was a clear victory for Kamala Harris. Donald Trump keeps finding new ways of making a fool of himself. That was the first time these two people had ever met. Still, it would be a mistake to count Trump out of winning in November.
Presidential debate on Sept. 10th was a clear victory for Kamala Harris. Donald Trump keeps finding new ways of making a fool of himself. That was the first time these two people had ever met. Still, it would be a mistake to count Trump out of winning in November.
Making a fool of yourself has no bearing in U.S. politics. Even being a CONVICTED FELON seems to have no bearing. Just one reason the U.S. is on the path to ruin.
Harris campaign continues to steamroll forward and Trump continues to collapse, but a lot could happen between now and November. Very difficult to gauge the speed of change and there is always a lag between the polls and what if the election were today.
I will summarize my updated prediction as such:
Democrats safe and likely votes 270, add Nevada 6, total 276. My last if election were held today prediction, Harris 276, Trump 262.
The balance of the battleground states are very close to joining Harris column, but hard to say exactly when.
But I believe they will all shortly be there, if trends continue.
So: add Arizona 11, Georgia 16, North Carolina 16, 43 +276 = 319 - most likely Harris total in election.
If predictions of a landslide are realized, add Florida 30, Texas 40, Maine 1 district, 319 +71 = 390
Will any of the hard core Red states join the landslide?? Probably not.
So most likely prediction as of today - Harris 319 Trump 219.
I am disappointed the polls remain stubbornly close, but my prediction from Aug 10 remains the same.
Harris will win with 319.
All of the seven key battleground states -- Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia -- remain very close, with margins within the polling error percentages. This has been the case now for several weeks, and is likely to remain that way until Election Day in early November.
North Carolina's Republican candidate for Governor, Mr. Robinson, looks to be having something of a personal crisis, with some highly erratic behavior recently. That phenomenon may impact the presidential campaign there.
TIME magazine's current issue has a cover with Donald Trump pictured, in a photo illustration, driving a golf cart into a bunker, noting that he is in trouble.
And Mr. Trump has some upcoming major legal issues to deal with, in the weeks ahead.
I simply wonder how he can be handing the constant pressure from all sides, at age 78.
Kamala Harris, about to turn age 60, is campaigning with enormous energy and enthusiasm. Her Democratic Party polling numbers, which dramatically surged upwards as she became the nominee, remain strong.
The Middle East situation seems to grow more volatile with each passing week, and could definitely affect the presidential race in unpredictable ways.
“The only thing I can come up with is that people do feel embarrassed. Most of what he preaches, most of us have taught our children to try to not be that way on the playground. So there’s a certain amount of reluctance to admit I’m going to vote for somebody whose conduct I tell my children is wrong.”
What a great way to put it. Americans are voting against their own morals and ethics.
I predict that any battleground state that polls show in the week preceding the election as being within the margin of error, even it it is in favor of Harris, will be won by Trump.
and the pollsters will slink away shaking their heads again .....
"Donald Trump has pulled ahead of Kamala Harris in Arizona and is leading in tight races in Georgia and North Carolina, a Times/Siena poll shows.
The polls of these three states, taken from Sept. 17 to 21, presented further evidence that in a sharply divided nation, the presidential contest is shaping up to be one of the tightest in history."
The New York Times: Breaking News Newsletter
Monday, September 23, 2024 5:04 AM ET
Other exceptionally close U.S. Presidential elections:
1) 1948: Harry Truman (D) defeated Thomas E. Dewey (R). Truman had trailed very badly well into the campaign, before undertaking a nationwide train trip to campaign hard and improve his chances. He pulled it out in the final days. One major Chicago newspaper actually printed a story "Dewey Defeats Truman", the day after the polling, a copy of which the victorious incumbent gleefully displayed that same day!!. In Alabama, Truman, as incumbent president, was NOT listed on the electoral ballot; the state went to Strom Thurmond of the 'Dixiecrat' Party, as did several other southern states, cutting into Truman's margin.
2) 1960: John F. Kennedy (D) defeated Richard Nixon (R). Ever since, debate has revolved around cheating, primarily by the Democrats, in certain states. In his masterful book, "The Dark Side Of Camelot", Seymour Hersh outlines previously unpublished details on the extent of Kennedy-financed fraud in Illinois, a vitally important state. It was heavily funded by JFK's exceptionally wealthy father, Joseph P. Kennedy, to the Chicago underworld. Illinois results came in late, with a narrow margin for Kennedy, with very heavy voting in Mafia-controlled Chicago districts, some of which had more votes than registered voters.
Texas was the other major state involved. In his exceptional book "Lyndon Johnson: Means Of Ascent", Robert Caro presents the most comprehensive analysis of Johnson cheating in the 1948 Texas senatorial primary runoff election, which he won by 87 votes, making up a nearly 70,000 vote deficit to very popular former Governor Coke Stevenson from the first round of primary voting, just a few weeks earlier. In that era, Democratic primary success was tantamount to eventual election. Kennedy selected Johnson as his running mate for 1960, with one main reason apparently being 'Landslide Lyndon's 'extra-special abilities' in certain areas of South Texas.
3) 1968: Richard Nixon (R) defeated Hubert Humphrey (D). In a battle of Vice-Presidents (Nixon, 1953-61) edged Humphrey (1965-69), as Humphrey narrowed the gap in the final campaign days. Many historians now point to Nixon's behind-the-scenes discussions with South Vietnamese leaders, who were near a peace settlement with the North in the Vietnam War, to NOT do a deal prior to the election, promising a better deal for them if he were elected. Nixon feared a late bump for Humphrey arising from a peace deal. A very turbulent campaign year had seen President Lyndon Johnson withdraw his candidacy in late March; the entry of anti-war candidate Democrat Robert F. Kennedy later in the race, followed by his subsequent assassination in early June as he was gaining momentum; the earlier assassination in April of Black Democrat leader Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., and a very chaotic Democratic convention in Chicago. On the Republican side, some nasty infighting featured Nixon and New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller, a much more moderate and generally better-liked figure, one of the world's wealthiest people, who had divorced his wife (the former Mary Todhunter Clark), a few years before, to marry a much younger woman (known as 'Happy' Rockefeller). Rockefeller later served as Vice-President (1974-77) in the frolics arising from the Watergate scandal, which saw Nixon resign as President in August, 1974.
4) 2000: George W. Bush (R) defeated Al Gore, Jr. (D). This one went to the U.S. Supreme Court, which voted 5-4, some six weeks after polling day, to stop Florida recount voting, as V.P. Gore was gaining, in a controversial dispute over 'hanging chads' and improperly tabulated votes, from computer electoral ballots. The Court decision gave Florida, the Electoral College, and the White House, to Texas Governor Bush (son of former President George H.W. Bush), whose final Florida margin was under 1,000 votes. Gore outpolled Bush nationally by nearly half a million votes.
5) 2016: Donald Trump (R) defeated Hillary Clinton (D). Trump gained late in the campaign, to nip frontrunner Clinton, who had led from the start; she scaled back her late campaigning as Trump kept his up. Trump, a political rookie, won narrow margins in the normally Democratic states Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, to defeat Clinton, former First Lady, Senator, and Secretary of State. A total margin of less than 100,000 votes in those three states decided the presidency. Clinton's final vote count was nearly three million ahead of Trump's, but Trump won in the Electoral College.
6) 2020: Joseph R. Biden, Jr. (D) defeated Donald Trump (R). In a similar but ultimately reversed scenario to 2016, Biden's margins in three key states, totaling less than 40,000, gave him the White House. Biden outpolled Trump by nearly seven million votes nationally, an outcome Trump fought vigorously, but unsuccessfully, in the courts, and has decried ever since.
Perhaps the most corrupt U.S. Presidential election ever was in 1876 (Rutherford Hayes over Samuel Tilden). It was so complicated that I don't trust myself to get it right and post it here!
All of the seven key battleground states -- Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia -- remain very close, with margins within the polling error percentages. This has been the case now for several weeks, and is likely to remain that way until Election Day in early November.
Crazy, eh. I still think all 7 battleground states will be won by Harris. But I am counting on some level of sunlight getting thru those red MAGA hats.
Of course, my prediction is based on a true and fair election process. Trump will no doubt claim he won anyway.
Then the legal battles begin.
Vice Presidential debate is Tuesday. Maybe that will shake things up.
Frank, you mentioned Texas & Florida sometime ago as possible battle ground states. I have heard both have had polls within 3 points. So I was hoping to see them added to the battleground list. But alas, not. I guess it was just an odd poll or two, nothing definitive. But who knows!
Last edited by Bob Gillanders; Sunday, 29th September, 2024, 02:34 PM.
Wisconsin, in a very recent poll, showed Harris/Trump statistically tied. They considered it now a swing state (8th).
My list before that (24/9/27) was (Posted on TRN):
Americas - USA
Presidential/Other Election: Tues., Nov. 4, 2024.
US Vice President Kamala Harris is leading Donald Trump in most of the seven states likely to determine the November election. She has all but neutralized the Republican’s advantage on economic issues, fueling an upbeat showing for the Democrat in battleground states. A Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll of swing states shows Harris now leading among likely voters [6 of 7]:
1. by 7 percentage points in Nevada,
2. 5 points in Pennsylvania,
3. 3 points in Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin, and
4. 2 points in North Carolina.
Will Trump's Legal Problems Sink his 2024 Campaign?
"Donald Trump “resorted to crimes” in a failed bid to cling to power after losing the 2020 election, federal prosecutors said in a newly unsealed court filing that argues that the former president is not entitled to immunity from prosecution."
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