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Exactly eight years ago, on October 18th, 2016, here is what your venerated MSM, the New York Times, were predicting based on their "polls." And you think decentralized systems controlled by no one that simply output is less predictive???? So here is what MSM propaganda looks like that Has ZERO to do with reality and everything to do with propaganda
What this poll shows is that MSM, NYT either have no concept of doing polls on representative samples, in which case they should stop doing polls, or they deliberately chose a non-representative sample/simply lied about the results, in which case the public needs to just dump them...
Polling inadequacies were rampant in the 2016 presidential election. Clinton eased off her campaigning in the final weeks; Trump kept his up; and pollsters missed the 'Trump effect', wherein many Trump supporters didn't identify as such, due to supposed shame, while planning secretly to vote for him. Also, the segment which was instrumental in bringing final narrow victory to Trump -- rural whites without college -- was greatly under-represented in pollsters' identification among voters' groups. Polling models have apparently been refined since then.
With 16 days to go, the seven battleground states in the presidential election -- Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona -- all remain exceptionally close, within a couple of percentage points, which is within the statistical margin of error, for the sample sizes being used. The website 538.com has the most comprehensive and up-do-date polling information.
This means the overall presidential election remains too close to call. It will likely come down to turnout levels for each of the two major candidates, in those seven states.
No other states have tightened up enough in their polling to upset the balance. Among states possibly in this category are Texas and Florida, but it looks like Trump's leads in both states, in the range of five per cent, are holding.
What this poll shows is that MSM, NYT either have no concept of doing polls on representative samples, in which case they should stop doing polls, or they deliberately chose a non-representative sample/simply lied about the results, in which case the public needs to just dump them...
It looks like you too need a refresher course on probability theory.
If something is 99% likely to happen, the thing that is 1% likely CAN STILL HAPPEN.
And when it does, it does not change the fact that the other thing was CORRECTLY 99% likely.
The next time you roll 2 dice and get snake-eyes ... do not post saying mathematics has it wrong for saying rolling anything BUT snake-eyes was something like 97% likely!!!
With 16 days to go, the seven battleground states in the presidential election -- Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona -- all remain exceptionally close, within a couple of percentage points, which is within the statistical margin of error, for the sample sizes being used. The website 538.com has the most comprehensive and up-do-date polling information.
This means the overall presidential election remains too close to call. It will likely come down to turnout levels for each of the two major candidates, in those seven states.
No other states have tightened up enough in their polling to upset the balance. Among states possibly in this category are Texas and Florida, but it looks like Trump's leads in both states, in the range of five per cent, are holding.
Hey Frank, nice summary.
I'm sticking with my prediction that all 7 battleground states, since they are in the margin of error, will ALL go to Trump. The reason you alluded to in your other post: many people who will vote for Trump are not reporting this to pollsters.
We criticize polling, but it can only reflect what people are willing to disclose. Polling is NOT and should not be considered a science.
With 16 days to go, the seven battleground states in the presidential election -- Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona -- all remain exceptionally close, within a couple of percentage points, which is within the statistical margin of error, for the sample sizes being used. The website 538.com has the most comprehensive and up-do-date polling information.
This means the overall presidential election remains too close to call. It will likely come down to turnout levels for each of the two major candidates, in those seven states.
No other states have tightened up enough in their polling to upset the balance. Among states possibly in this category are Texas and Florida, but it looks like Trump's leads in both states, in the range of five per cent, are holding.
Polling results make no sense anymore. I have long held that sampling sizes are too small. We all know some polls are bias, and I wonder if the market is being flooded with such polls. Based on the public appearances of Trump in recent days, the momentum of Harris campaign should have continued, but we are being told the opposite. I can only conclude we are all being flooded with propoganda and not reality. I will stay with my prediction of a Harris win.
I leave you with the latest from Jon Stewart, best political commentator of our time.
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