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Exactly eight years ago, on October 18th, 2016, here is what your venerated MSM, the New York Times, were predicting based on their "polls." And you think decentralized systems controlled by no one that simply output is less predictive???? So here is what MSM propaganda looks like that Has ZERO to do with reality and everything to do with propaganda
What this poll shows is that MSM, NYT either have no concept of doing polls on representative samples, in which case they should stop doing polls, or they deliberately chose a non-representative sample/simply lied about the results, in which case the public needs to just dump them...
Polling inadequacies were rampant in the 2016 presidential election. Clinton eased off her campaigning in the final weeks; Trump kept his up; and pollsters missed the 'Trump effect', wherein many Trump supporters didn't identify as such, due to supposed shame, while planning secretly to vote for him. Also, the segment which was instrumental in bringing final narrow victory to Trump -- rural whites without college -- was greatly under-represented in pollsters' identification among voters' groups. Polling models have apparently been refined since then.
With 16 days to go, the seven battleground states in the presidential election -- Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona -- all remain exceptionally close, within a couple of percentage points, which is within the statistical margin of error, for the sample sizes being used. The website 538.com has the most comprehensive and up-do-date polling information.
This means the overall presidential election remains too close to call. It will likely come down to turnout levels for each of the two major candidates, in those seven states.
No other states have tightened up enough in their polling to upset the balance. Among states possibly in this category are Texas and Florida, but it looks like Trump's leads in both states, in the range of five per cent, are holding.
What this poll shows is that MSM, NYT either have no concept of doing polls on representative samples, in which case they should stop doing polls, or they deliberately chose a non-representative sample/simply lied about the results, in which case the public needs to just dump them...
It looks like you too need a refresher course on probability theory.
If something is 99% likely to happen, the thing that is 1% likely CAN STILL HAPPEN.
And when it does, it does not change the fact that the other thing was CORRECTLY 99% likely.
The next time you roll 2 dice and get snake-eyes ... do not post saying mathematics has it wrong for saying rolling anything BUT snake-eyes was something like 97% likely!!!
With 16 days to go, the seven battleground states in the presidential election -- Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona -- all remain exceptionally close, within a couple of percentage points, which is within the statistical margin of error, for the sample sizes being used. The website 538.com has the most comprehensive and up-do-date polling information.
This means the overall presidential election remains too close to call. It will likely come down to turnout levels for each of the two major candidates, in those seven states.
No other states have tightened up enough in their polling to upset the balance. Among states possibly in this category are Texas and Florida, but it looks like Trump's leads in both states, in the range of five per cent, are holding.
Hey Frank, nice summary.
I'm sticking with my prediction that all 7 battleground states, since they are in the margin of error, will ALL go to Trump. The reason you alluded to in your other post: many people who will vote for Trump are not reporting this to pollsters.
We criticize polling, but it can only reflect what people are willing to disclose. Polling is NOT and should not be considered a science.
With 16 days to go, the seven battleground states in the presidential election -- Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona -- all remain exceptionally close, within a couple of percentage points, which is within the statistical margin of error, for the sample sizes being used. The website 538.com has the most comprehensive and up-do-date polling information.
This means the overall presidential election remains too close to call. It will likely come down to turnout levels for each of the two major candidates, in those seven states.
No other states have tightened up enough in their polling to upset the balance. Among states possibly in this category are Texas and Florida, but it looks like Trump's leads in both states, in the range of five per cent, are holding.
Polling results make no sense anymore. I have long held that sampling sizes are too small. We all know some polls are bias, and I wonder if the market is being flooded with such polls. Based on the public appearances of Trump in recent days, the momentum of Harris campaign should have continued, but we are being told the opposite. I can only conclude we are all being flooded with propoganda and not reality. I will stay with my prediction of a Harris win.
I leave you with the latest from Jon Stewart, best political commentator of our time.
Polling results make no sense anymore. I have long held that sampling sizes are too small. We all know some polls are bias, and I wonder if the market is being flooded with such polls. Based on the public appearances of Trump in recent days, the momentum of Harris campaign should have continued, but we are being told the opposite. I can only conclude we are all being flooded with propoganda and not reality. I will stay with my prediction of a Harris win.
I leave you with the latest from Jon Stewart, best political commentator of our time.
From now until election day and beyond, everything is simply propaganda. That is the only conclusion I can reach that makes any sense.
Having been deprived of a steady diet of right-wing media, it is difficult for me to understand the thought process of MAGA voters.
I will have to suffer thru the days ahead comforted by left-wing media comedy. Here a good sample.
From now until election day and beyond, everything is simply propaganda. That is the only conclusion I can reach that makes any sense.
Having been deprived of a steady diet of right-wing media, it is difficult for me to understand the thought process of MAGA voters.
I will have to suffer thru the days ahead comforted by left-wing media comedy. Here a good sample.
From now until election day and beyond, everything is simply propaganda. That is the only conclusion I can reach that makes any sense.
Having been deprived of a steady diet of right-wing media, it is difficult for me to understand the thought process of MAGA voters.
I will have to suffer thru the days ahead comforted by left-wing media comedy. Here a good sample.
I stopped watching about a minute in when Trump spewed out one of his old lies - i.e. that he was one of Oprah's last guests during the final week of her network tv show. That obnoxious piece of crap can't open his mouth without lying.
"We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office." - Aesop
"Only the dead have seen the end of war." - Plato
"If once a man indulges himself in murder, very soon he comes to think little of robbing; and from robbing he comes next to drinking and Sabbath-breaking, and from that to incivility and procrastination." - Thomas De Quincey
I stopped watching about a minute in when Trump spewed out one of his old lies - i.e. that he was one of Oprah's last guests during the final week of her network tv show. That obnoxious piece of crap can't open his mouth without lying.
I don't know Peter, he was on her show almost a dozen times, including one several months before her final show in 2011, and it is known that he enjoyed a cordial relationship with her in those days.
If you want to criticize him for lying, far more serious were his repeated claims that Operation Warp Speed was a great idea or that he saved millions of lives by locking down.
This was one of the greatest crimes in the history of humanity. However, unlike Biden/Harris, he disagreed with mandates which violate the Nuremberg code. After the massive harm that was done, Kamala Harris still only allows the vaccinated to work on her current campaign. The decision America faces is a choice between two absolute pigs as was the case in 2016.
Given that Robert F Kennedy Junior held his nose and endorsed Trump and is one of the few politicians courageous enough to call out the truth about the vaccines despite being a lifetime Democrat, I am in favor of his pragmatism and hope, based on that, I hope Trump wins so that Kennedy can do some vital work in ensuring these crimes against humanity do not happen again.
Good on you that you at least clicked on the video to listen.
From now until election day and beyond, everything is simply propaganda. That is the only conclusion I can reach that makes any sense.
Having been deprived of a steady diet of right-wing media, it is difficult for me to understand the thought process of MAGA voters.
I will have to suffer thru the days ahead comforted by left-wing media comedy. Here a good sample.
Probably they do not want to live under communism and they also believe with some justification based on past experience that when a Democrat or a member of the main stream media is saying something, they are obviously and blatantly lying. Communists lie. No rational person wants to live under a government where borders are erased, criminals are released into the country and there are no consequences for crime other than for the victims. Wealth redistribution sounds great until the wealth runs out and it starts to be your wealth that is being redistributed and people are reduced to eating zoo animals.
There is little likelihood that Trump or any of the Republican candidates of the last 64 years hold any fascistic views and yet all have been so labelled. The people who vote Democrat and think that this time they will have a different result are like the kids that keep falling for variations of the four move checkmate.
I rarely come here...but tonight...I am enjoying my wine LOL. So this is my perspective...I was at our U.S. warehouse last week...the guy who works there is a great guy. So naturally we talked some politics...his perspective...despite all the problems that Trump has...he was good for the economy when he was in power...as a famous person said many years ago...tis the economy stupid. Now if you think I am pro Trump...you are mistaken. I have no respect for someone who lies and doesn't care about the truth...just trying to point out the thinking of many Americans .
Well said, Larry and Vlad!
According to Libertarianism, the idea that society needs politicians to 'govern' it, is a big lie which has been very disruptive to society itself. Trump's lies just reveal how narcissistic a fella he is, but do not do any harm worth speaking of, to anyone else...except perhaps on January 6th, 2021.
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