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---- Nous avons besoin d'un traduction français!
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One of our fellow chesstalkers sent me an interesting article on Climategate II with the release of many more emails from that goofy band of misfits that brought you the IPCC report and the flawed science of global warming. The new release of emails occurred relatively recently without much fanfare from the mainstream media. The original Climategate which took a long time to register in the mainstream media was probably the pivotal moment in derailing the climate change juggernaut when the first batch of climategate emails were released. Apparently there is a lot of material for Climategate III, IV, V and VI but the whole global warming / climate change movement seems to have lost much of its relevance as a political force. The whitewashes notwithstanding they never regained the momentum that they had before those original emails were released.
Remember when Vlad and others were claiming that sea ice was recovering after 2007; obviously they were completely wrong, as they are with anything they say on climate change; sickening denial, denial, denial...
I am a member of the Arctic Methane Emergency Group (AMEG) and I gave a
presentation last week to CMOS (Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic
Society) last week on rapid climate change in the Arctic; the pdf of the
presentation is on this link:
pdf at bottom of link; or from home page click About and Contributers
Basic highlights/lowlights...
Chance of zero sea-ice in Arctic ocean by end of summer in 2013: 5% ---
Chance of zero sea-ice in Arctic ocean by end of summer in 2015: 50% ---
Chance of zero sea-ice in Arctic ocean by end of summer in 2018: 95%
Let us assume that this initial zero sea-ice event occurs in 2015. The
model shows that the Arctic ocean would be clear of ice for 3 months 1-2
years later, and for 5 months by 2018 or... 2019 (3 years later). By 2024
(9 years after initial event) or so, it would be clear of sea-ice year
round. Needless to say, skating on the canal in Ottawa could be replaced
by canoeing.
On the ESAS (East Siberian Arctic Shelf) emission plumes that were tens of
meters in diameter were observed several years ago, recent measurements in
the area discovered plumes that were a kilometer in diameter. Measurements
of methane at Barrow Alaska and Svalbard show a strong uptick signal in
methane concentrations.
Consider also that weather around the planet for 2010 and 2011 has been
more extreme than any other year in the instrumental record; in fact the
last most extreme weather year is thought to be that in 1816 whereby
summer was killed by the Tambora supervolcano ash.
Consider also that there was an unprecedented ozone hole over the Arctic
covering over 2 million square kilometers in early 2011.
I can tie all these events together, and give a strong case that the
planet is now undergoing abrupt climate change. If this is indeed
happening the societal implications are simply enormous; as climate
extremes increase the world food supply will decrease; food is the likely
weakest point that will be affected the most.
I am a member of the Arctic Methane Emergency Group (AMEG) and I gave a
presentation last week to CMOS (Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic
Society) last week on rapid climate change in the Arctic; the pdf of the
presentation is on this link:
pdf at bottom of link; or from home page click About and Contributers
Basic highlights/lowlights...
Chance of zero sea-ice in Arctic ocean by end of summer in 2013: 5% ---
Chance of zero sea-ice in Arctic ocean by end of summer in 2015: 50% ---
Chance of zero sea-ice in Arctic ocean by end of summer in 2018: 95%
Let us assume that this initial zero sea-ice event occurs in 2015. The
model shows that the Arctic ocean would be clear of ice for 3 months 1-2
years later, and for 5 months by 2018 or... 2019 (3 years later). By 2024
(9 years after initial event) or so, it would be clear of sea-ice year
round. Needless to say, skating on the canal in Ottawa could be replaced
by canoeing.
On the ESAS (East Siberian Arctic Shelf) emission plumes that were tens of
meters in diameter were observed several years ago, recent measurements in
the area discovered plumes that were a kilometer in diameter. Measurements
of methane at Barrow Alaska and Svalbard show a strong uptick signal in
methane concentrations.
Consider also that weather around the planet for 2010 and 2011 has been
more extreme than any other year in the instrumental record; in fact the
last most extreme weather year is thought to be that in 1816 whereby
summer was killed by the Tambora supervolcano ash.
Consider also that there was an unprecedented ozone hole over the Arctic
covering over 2 million square kilometers in early 2011.
I can tie all these events together, and give a strong case that the
planet is now undergoing abrupt climate change. If this is indeed
happening the societal implications are simply enormous; as climate
extremes increase the world food supply will decrease; food is the likely
weakest point that will be affected the most.
Thanks for the link... must have been a long lunch if you got through all those slides!
Re: THE NEW One and Only Climate Change Whatever...
"If this is indeed happening..."
Exactly.
"As climate extremes increase the world food supply will decrease."
Does not follow nor does it make sense. If temperatures go up there will be more growing season and more food.
"food is the likely weakest point that will be affected the most."
If we can get the environmentalists and their political lapdogs to quit supporting ethanol that diverts so much food so wastefully then food would not be a problem at least for a while. The food supply is increasing but not fast enough to keep up with the irresponsible people like Paul Beckwith who insist on unbridled reproduction and consumption for themselves and their ilk while advocating that others restrain themselves. We could take environmentalists much more seriously if they actually practiced what they preach.
"As climate extremes increase the world food supply will decrease."
Does not follow nor does it make sense. If temperatures go up there will be more growing season and more food.
Vlad, what about tornados, tsunamis, and floods that will destroy the farmland?
Last edited by Bob Gillanders; Wednesday, 25th January, 2012, 10:42 PM.
Vlad, what about tornados, tsunamis, and floods that will destroy the farmland?
Global warming is likely to lead to fewer tornados and not more. Tsunamis are caused by earthquakes which have nothing to do with global warming. What farmland are you talking about in specific? Flood plains often are the most fertile lands.
Re : THE NEW One and Only Climate Change Whatever...
One of the comments resume everything :
By Brian Cabaniss (Roanoke, VA 24018)
on February 2nd, 2012
That’s purty, but it’s just a scam by them peoples up thar in lab coats that want me to buy them curly light bulbs and make me git one of dem pick-up trucks that you gotta plug in. I betcha they’re the same ones tryin’ to tell me the Earth is older than 6000 years old. I aint fallin’ for it.
Seeing how you're using articles which harp on internment, here's one which gives and idea of the scope of what was done in Canada. It's offered without comment.
Re: THE NEW One and Only Climate Change Whatever...
The science on climate change has never been more certain: Every national academy of science in the world, every professional scientific society, and 98 percent of climate scientists most actively publishing all agree that man made climate change is happening now and that urgent action by governments and businesses is necessary now.
However, there is a vast “disconnect” between this powerful reality on the one hand, and both public opinion and global political processes on the other. Deceptive campaigns funded by fossil fuel interests, and supported by ideologists who fear any proactive policy agenda by governments, have obfuscated the truth. Paid-for propaganda, masquerading as science, has sowed doubt in the public’s mind, just as the tobacco industry sowed doubt about the science linking cigarettes to lung disease a half-century ago.
Re: THE NEW One and Only Climate Change Whatever...
Food in our warming world (by a friend Graham who did his Ph. D. on this topic)...
"My short email, (Very short) was a basic explanation and opinion. The long version, with sources, is a PHD thesis. Laughter. My response was a synthesis of what I know, expressed as an opinion. The use of intensive irrigation, and cheap Solar pumps, (I am amazed how much water you can pump in a day with a 50 watt micro-pump) on micro-holdings, and family food growing, plus use of plants that are already adapted to high temperatures, (rice, for instance, and other grains) plus simple fish culture, as done in
places like Bangladesh, gives us 25% or so, (very conservative estimate) of total global food production. Take a look, also, at Cuban "Organoponicos", for an example. But not enough. Very, very soon, there will not be enough.
We have all heard of the "Tree-line", now let me introduce the "Banana Line". Works the same way. But with Bananas. It's rapidly moving both North, and South, like the Tree
line boundary, and for the same reasons. But needs water, and many other things. The European "Banana line" is now in Southern Spain, but could reach the UK by 2100. Once you get past the limits of the Tropics, there are plants that can be introduced, and adapted. Sub-tropical foods will be grown here in UK, in the open, if things continue. (and there is drought adaption). The problem is the tropics, where, as you say, a thin margin exists, of temperature tolerance. The low latitude situation is much more
hopeless. A lot of people live there. Simply disastrous.
Lovelock has expressed opinions on the long term survival of the Humans, at a very low level of culture, and in micro-numbers. He is not optimistic, at all. The vast Global agri-business, is the problem. It will collapse, under the stress of climbing temperatures, population pressures, soil depletion, shortage or cost issues of fossil fuel inputs, etc etc.
The frailty of the so-called "Green Revolution" in agriculture, is well known. But the rapidly approaching food crisis is at present, unsolvable. It needs a complete change of the food system, which has to be carried out during continued conventional production, with new technologies, etc, and there will still not be enough food production increase, in time.
The great Hunger has already started. Climate change is starving about 20 million plus, right now, in the Horn of Africa, and the situation is only temporarily under control, this year. It will get a lot worse, next year. Drought.
All this against a clock-time of about 60 months, or less, depending on what happens in the Arctic. This is not a high level science paper, it's a fairly common sense recitation of the obvious, and also a personal cry of despair. It all haunts me terribly.
Graham
"
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