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I have to think the Jays will deal for an established catcher.
Dickey comes with his personal catcher. Not every catcher can handle a knuckler. Maybe the guy is decent all around but he`s low paid and I don`t think he`s much of a hitter.
Thole's pretty decent actually. He's the perfect platoon partner for Arencibia. He pretty much does everything that Arencibia can't do, which means he has no power, but he takes walks, makes contact, has high on base percentage. But... his defensive skills are kind of below average too, meh... dunno what's gonna happen
You can't slam the trade and then say it will be worth it if they make the playoffs.
What if they make the playoffs 3 of the 4 next seasons but D'Arnaud becomes a star on a losing team ?
Look, I've followed baseball for decades and was extensively involved in a rotisserie league at one point. We drafted the entire league plus a reserve roster the last two years. My 40th pick our last draft was M. Rivera, at the time a fireballing minor leaguer rumoured to be a strong prospect by Baseball America etc etc. During that time I really got a feel for how teams are composed, how players arrive and progress, and how rare it is to get any offence from certain positions.
You are speaking in idealistic terms about trying to steal a guy like Dickey for almost nothing. There is always a price, numerous teams wanted him and the Jays either exceeded that market or didn't get him. If we were to ask who is more likely to win a World Series ring now, Arencebia or D'Arnaud, I like Arencebia to win one. D'Arnaud could end up being almost any level, much like Lawrie ( who went for Marcum who helped get the Brewers into the playoffs ). You can project all you want you really don't know, nobody does.
Dickey is coming off one of the best seasons in recent history. He doesn't have to match to be extremely valuable to the team. He's older yes but his pay rate is less then half the rate his peers like Grienke make now. I suspect they know Johnson will take a monster contract to extend and he's injury prone. So you go with Dickey/Buehrle as your inning eaters for 3 years, hoping their arms hold up and that Bautista remains decent for that time slot. If Morrow stays healthy even better he's probably better then any of them. And you know why this plan is great ? The Jays lost in 2012 because their pitchers got hurt a ton. Now they have durable guys in place and any of their injured guys coming back ( most will not be effective/available until late 2013 ) its a bonus.
If a leak springs in the plan during next season they should have excess pitching and can trade for an upgrade on offence. Its easy to forget how desperate teams get for reliable pitching most years; this is why teams like the Jays have many times signed aging/injured veterans just hoping to win the lottery and get a comeback story. As the cliche goes, you can never have too much pitching. Some might argue the Jays have too much pitching, if its true they'll play that chip later.
Jays main risk now is on offence. If Bautista's injury is chronic, Encarnacion is a one season wonder, and guys like Rasmus/Lawrie/Arencebia trend badly ( yes, I agree this is possible except I like Lawrie a lot ), they'll need an upgrade. And for the next two seasons D'Arnaud no matter how good he eventually gets isn't the kind of impact player now that will make a difference in that regard. They'll need a 90 rbi guy for the middle of their order. The kind of guy you can only get by trading a strong pitcher or overpaying a free agent in the off season.
Last edited by Duncan Smith; Tuesday, 18th December, 2012, 08:38 AM.
You are way off base its reported that Buck was thrown into the trade to save the $6 million salary. Buck is an "established" catcher. But so is Arencebia now. And the vote of confidance is clear they cleared out their next best two catchers on the depth chart and brought in a guy who specializes in catching the knuckeballer as a back up.
Slamming the trade and saying it's worth it if they make the playoffs the next couple years are not mutually exclusive. Look at the Royals trade for James Shield recently. That trade is widely panned as one of the worst in recent times. Yet, I'm sure if they somehow leap ahead of Detroit and make the playoffs next year because of superb pitching from Shields and Davis, they will be content.
I can understand you may have more experience playing fantasy drafts and seeing the development of younger players than I have but what my argument is based on numbers and general consensus from the sabremetrics community and not just casual fan talk. Did I say I wanted to steal Dickey for Arencibia straight up? Because that's what most of the casual fans wanted from day 1. I realized that's not realistic and I was hoping that Gose + Arencibia would do it. The Blue Jays front office obviously thought the same as they offered that package as well but was turned down rightfully by the Mets.
Being a fan is more than just hopping on the bandwagon when a team is winning and jumping off when a team is losing. I actually want them to make smart baseball moves that will give them a chance of winning games over the long run. I quoted articles and stats to back up my reasoning and all you're giving me is anecdotal stories and emotional feel. That doesn't seem to be very fair.
Look, if you took a look at the articles from reporters and bloggers, you will see clearly that when D'Arnaud and Syndergaard were offered, everyone on the Mets panned the deal while everyone on the Jays were shocked they dealt so much. After the trade was announced, the mets were still extremely happy with the package they got back and most Jays fans kind of said "Screw it, they got Dickey, w/e let's go win a world series" and started hating on the prospects i.e. Syndergaard is young and far far away, D'arnaud has injury problems, knee problems, never played a full season, strikes out a lot. You can't just love your prospects and then hate them when they're traded away, that's not objective at all. It's a widely known fact that the Jays overpaid for Dickey and while objective newscasters didn't hate it as much as the Royals as the Jays are closer to contention than them, I was still hoping we would get more.
If you need proof on reporters and blogs, check out twitter updates as it was going on, Richard Griffin himself mentioned that they should be getting someone back for the two blue chippers. Additionally, check out mlbtraderumors.com as the trade was happening or
bluebirdbanter.com for jays bloggers or
amazinavenue.com for mets bloggers.
Furthermore, Buck is a throw-in, he's basically a future JP Arencibia, has power, strikes out a lot, poor defence and his salary was used to offset Dickey and Thole's costs. In other words, he's useless at this point in his career. Just check his last two years of production. If you don't believe me, maybe you'll believe AA: http://www.sportsnet.ca/590/2012/12/17/anthopoulos_pts/
You are way off base its reported that Buck was thrown into the trade to save the $6 million salary. Buck is an "established" catcher. But so is Arencebia now. And the vote of confidance is clear they cleared out their next best two catchers on the depth chart and brought in a guy who specializes in catching the knuckeballer as a back up.
Hmmmm. I thought they traded for the catcher because Dickey wanted him and it make signing Dickey easier. Kind of why they refer to him as Dickey's personal catcher.
Actually, a lot of sports reporters are simply trying to entertain and often know no more ( and sometimes less ) then avid fans. The internet has spawned a lot of bad information mixed in with the good. What I see is you first praising the Blue Jays GM for making one trade then criticizing him deeply on the next trade. Surely on the job he's got his scouts and inside people advising him on both moves.
Seems to be useless arguing with you Duncan. I've tried pointing out facts from baseball sites, articles from professional writers with deep baseball knowledge (who are not the typical Toronto sport writer) and given quantitative and qualitative evidence of my points but sigh... some people just don't get it.
Seems to be useless arguing with you Duncan. I've tried pointing out facts from baseball sites, articles from professional writers with deep baseball knowledge (who are not the typical Toronto sport writer) and given quantitative and qualitative evidence of my points but sigh... some people just don't get it.
I believe clearly you don't get it. You have a kind of tunnel vision and are mesmorized by statistics. There are many facets to trades; for example salary considerations would suggest the Dickey trade was extremely good and the Marlins trade bad ( quite the opposite of your aggressive stance on the trades ). But given the new strategy for the Jays ( win now ), both trades look extremely good to me, with the Marlins being the better trade but firesales of talent aren't that available normally.
I could quote stats til I'm blue in the face but that would just be feeding into your overemphasis on numerics and a kind of brazen attitude that your position is "correct". I don't really care these moves are long overdue and we have had 19 years of mostly bad plans involving penny pinching and stockpiling prospects that have gone almost nowhere. And you are probably too young to have experienced the Pat Gillick years when the Blue Jays brought in established veteran stars regularily and traded strong prospects for veteran add ons. For example, David Cone for Jeff Kent, a trade you'd have to hate with a passion I guess using your beliefs in this thread. Kent was hitting home runs regularily as soon as he made the team and Cone was pretty much a short term add. Or signing an aging Jack Morris who routinely put up bad statistics most seasons in every way except one : winning.
Don't think that your passion for this topic trumps mine.I had the same young passion for the game in the 1980s, and a real good memory for what happened for decades and how player transactions can look really good or really bad overnight. Decades later I highly doubt your interest since 2006 or whenever is giving you some sort of extra insight at all.
In fact, that's my closing point. You are so sure of yourself and to be blunt you have NO IDEA how this transaction will turn out. None of us do. I have repeatably said this on several posts, but you don't get it.
So what was the trade again, the reigning Cy Young winner for two good prospects, one of who is rated #17 in the minor leagues overall. Read that again, and understand what that means. All this fuss from you is so overdone its absurd. Enjoy the team and take an interest in all these good players, but don't for a minute think you have any idea how their careers will turn out.
Or vice versa ? Depends on your criteria, if it's fiscal the Marlins trade could be a disaster. The Jays for almost two decades would never have made the first trade, Reyes is one of the most overpaid players in baseball, and Johnson is on an expiring contract. Beurhle is not cheap. Hercheveria was easily their strongest young addition last season, he looked major league ready. Plus they threw in one of their big three class A guys.
Look, it's not me slamming the trade it's the three of you. I like both trades, but you are so sure of yourself that you know better then the Blue Jays GM. Classic Chesstalk really that when faced with an opposite opinion that you try to turn the argument around by blaming someone for daring to disagree with you. I have made a very well presented argument in support of this trade, and quite seriously the correct answer from you should be well I can see your points but all things considered I disagree with you. But I guess silly sarcasm is more your thing but idgaf.
Last edited by Duncan Smith; Wednesday, 19th December, 2012, 03:19 AM.
Or vice versa ? Depends on your criteria, if it's fiscal the Marlins trade could be a disaster. The Jays for almost two decades would never have made the first trade, Reyes is one of the most overpaid players in baseball, and Johnson is on an expiring contract. Beurhle is not cheap. Hercheveria was easily their strongest young addition last season, he looked major league ready. Plus they threw in one of their big three class A guys.
Look, it's not me slamming the trade it's the three of you. I like both trades, but you are so sure of yourself that you know better then the Blue Jays GM. Classic Chesstalk really that when faced with an opposite opinion that you try to turn the argument around by blaming someone for daring to disagree with you. I have made a very well presented argument in support of this trade, and quite seriously the correct answer from you should be well I can see your points but all things considered I disagree with you. But I guess silly sarcasm is more your thing but idgaf.
LOL. So you're essentially saying "I don't care how much the Jays spend or give away their minor league talent, I just want to win." You do understand that we gave away more for R A Dickey, a 38 year old knuckleballer then the entire Marlins trade right? I know he's the NL CY young award winner and he's been very good the past 3 years and will likely continue to be for the next 3 but do you ever read what you write or do you just love making enemies?
The world isn't against you Duncan, we're not all ganging up on you. What started out as a positive post by me turned into a flame war because of a disagreement. I'm fine with disagreements but not when an entire portion of the game like statistics is thrown out the window to suit your argument. It's not just me saying the 1st trade was good and the 2nd trade was bad, everyone was saying it. The consensus is that "we gave up too much for Dickey but now that we have him, let's enjoy the playoff run because we believe in AA." You really need to stop being so angry at the world and letting your emotions take control of your actions because your argument is clearly based on emotional and personal opinions rather than on an objective view.
Additionally, on your point about Jack Morris, wins and losses are such a useless stat when determining how good pitchers are. Let me ask you, do you think a pitcher with a 0-5 record who has given up 1-2 runs in those 5 games while lasting 7 innings or more each time is worth less than a pitcher who went 5-0 who gives up 5 runs in those 5 games in 5 innings? Fan590. Strikeouts/9, Walks/9, Groundball% are all much more useful stats as pitchers can actually control those rates to a certain extent. This whole topic is bringing my baseball IQ down. It feels like arguing with fans on TSN or listening to casual fans call in on the Fan590.
Lastly, I started watching the Jays back in 2000 but only took a serious interest in statistics in 2009 when AA was brought on. You might think that you have more passion for the game than I do based on time spent, but as we all know in chess, it doesn't matter how much time you spend on it, but rather what you do with that time. It seems pretty clear to me that your time wasn't spent very efficiently.
Last edited by Bindi Cheng; Wednesday, 19th December, 2012, 10:22 AM.
I seem to recall for the big teams of the early 90's the starters didn't have to go more than 7 innings. Ward would come in for the 8th for the setup and Henke would close it out in the 9th. After Henke went to Texas (?) in 1993 they tried Ward for closing but other than in 1993 it never seemed to work as well as they seemed to hoped.
LOL. So you're essentially saying "I don't care how much the Jays spend or give away their minor league talent, I just want to win."
YES -- is the simple answer.
The Toronto Blue Jays began in 1977. I have been a Seasons Ticket holder since the beginning. 35 Years Now!
After 15 years -- World Series Championship Number 1 (1992)
After 16 years -- World Series Championship Number 2 (1993)
20 years of nothing - zilch --
2013 -- After 35 years a potential 3rd World Series Championship.
It would be very reasonable in a league of 30 teams that Toronto wins it all every 12 years on average, right? Not every 30 years or never at all -- (insert Seattle Mariners here).
Mark, thank you for the supporting comments us old guys have seen the good and the bad for the Blue Jays. 1983-1993 we were a powerhouse big money team that was always a playoff contender. My kids have never seen a successful Jays team and they still think its a joke when I tell them that "this time" they will be a real contender.
My opinion, the 2012 season showed there is a huge undercurrent of new and old fans ready to believe in this team, but continued mediocrity now ( building for the future yada yada yada ... ) might have been a huge risk. Glad to see the executive is finally recognizing this reality.
Last odds I saw was 14-1 to win Series. Plenty of teams still lower odds including the Yankees ( guess people think they'll scratch out some signings ). I liked the quoted over/under of 88 wins ( not sure if its moved ); take the over and enjoy the season. What an incredible pitching staff; the middle relief is top notch now as well.
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