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Glad to see that Vlad is running for CFC President. :)
On the Jays again, I would have been very content before the season was underway if they just made the playoffs. Afaik, there are two wildcard spots per league as of last year (at least the Ottawa Sun newspaper seems to show two such spots per league in the daily standings), making for a total of 5 available playoff spots for the 15 teams in the American league.
Jays are leading tonight early against the Red Sox. They might be nearer a point of no return if they don't win, but if they do they might be just 5 1/2 out of a playoff spot after tonight, if certain other teams in the hunt falter. In short, perhaps this could be a pivotal game.
Last edited by Kevin Pacey; Tuesday, 30th April, 2013, 07:58 PM.
Reason: Spelling
Anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Murphy's law, by Edward A. Murphy Jr., USAF, Aerospace Engineer
Glad to see that Vlad is running for CFC President. :)
On the Jays again, I would have been very content before the season was underway if they just made the playoffs. Afaik, there are two wildcard spots per league as of last year (at least the Ottawa Sun newspaper seems to show two such spots per league in the daily standings), making for a total of 5 available playoff spots for the 15 teams in the American league.
Jays are leading tonight early against the Red Sox. They might be nearer a point of no return if they don't win, but if they do they might be just 5 1/2 out of a playoff spot after tonight, if certain other teams in the hunt falter. In short, perhaps this could be a pivotal game.
Jays won tonight in the end, 9-7. Unfortunately, it looks like the NY Yankees will win too. However, other teams in the hunt for the second American league wildcard spot may lose tonight.
Here's a link explaining the two MLB wildcard spots that were actually added before last season, in case anyone (like me) was unsure:
Lol, no politics please, there's plenty of other topics to hijack.
Yes Jays finally won tonight, I think it was a pivotal game too as I don't think they can afford to have drop any more late leads like they have been for the first month. Gibbons has to STOP sending out Aaron Loup in close late ball games. His stats appear to be fine but he has been giving up so many clutch (to the opposite team) hits and must have lost at least 3 or so games on his own. Tonight, it was a combination of errors, Loup and Delabar and if it weren't for Encarnacion heroics, they would be 9-18 instead of 10-17. Hopefully this is a sign of good things to come. I'm told by the announcers that the last time Jays had such a poor April, they rebounded with a great May, 20-8 or something like that back in 2003. Maybe they can do it again, it's been 10 years.
Glad to see that Vlad is running for CFC President. :)
On the Jays again, I would have been very content before the season was underway if they just made the playoffs. Afaik, there are two wildcard spots per league as of last year (at least the Ottawa Sun newspaper seems to show two such spots per league in the daily standings), making for a total of 5 available playoff spots for the 15 teams in the American league.
Jays are leading tonight early against the Red Sox. They might be nearer a point of no return if they don't win, but if they do they might be just 5 1/2 out of a playoff spot after tonight, if certain other teams in the hunt falter. In short, perhaps this could be a pivotal game.
Baseball is never decided on regular season single games or even months. Teams do NOT trend by months or perform from season to season in a regular pattern ( unless they are a very bad team ).
Last season, everyone said Detroit had a great team after signing Prince Fielder and others. They were mediocre for many months. After the all star break, they got hot and went to the World Series. Meanwhile, the Pirates surprised everyone and dominated their division well into early August. Then, they went on a monster losing streak and faded badly for even a wild card chance.
Last season was not overly dramatic, these kind of counter trend moves mid season are far from rare ( Red Sox are famous for falling apart second half many years ).
Jays are fully capable of coming back. But will they ? I am unsure. Losing Reyes was a big problem, because they had zero depth in terms of on base type hitters. They have huge power in their line up. Gibbons has been a poor manager in my opinion so far, guys who fail to perform ( especially mental errors like swinging away against wild pitchers ) should sit next game. Several hitters have been terrible so far; especially Cabrera, Bonofocio, and Rasmus. Rasmus gets a pass for defensive reasons, but the other two aren't justifying their regular presence right now.
Last edited by Duncan Smith; Wednesday, 1st May, 2013, 03:30 PM.
I read they will, or maybe have by now, do a MRI on Dickey's neck. Something about a problem which has been bothering him for the last 3 games.
Here's the players notes on him.
"Apr 28 R.A. Dickey (neck) expects to have MRI sometime this week.
Advice: Dickey is dealing with same injury he's pitched with in his last three starts. At this point the MRI is precautionary, but a stint on the disabled list can't be ruled out if more damage is found. Dickey threw seven innings and allowed three runs in a loss Sunday against the Yankees."
Toronto is a great sports town. We all understand there's always next season. :)
John Buck is on his way to a career season at the plate. He's really hitting. Of course, the Jays had to give someone decent up to get someone decent.
Price, who won the Cy Young in the American league last season, is also having his problem early this season. Worse ERA than Dickey and less wins. I guess it's hard to know.
Arencebia may also be well on his way to a career season. Of course, he's never had a down season, just a couple of bad months last year playing injured.
Currently : Buck 9 hr, 25 rbi, .241/.269/.575 for $6M salary
Arencebia 8 hr, 16 rbi, .253/.267/.566 for $506K salary
According to these stats, you must love Arencebia by now. What a bargain. Only stat he's behind Buck in is rbi's; however, Jays team has been so bad getting on base and Buck has been basically clean up for a bad Mets team. So rbi's are more a function of that then a real difference.
Last edited by Duncan Smith; Wednesday, 1st May, 2013, 03:57 PM.
Arencebia may also be well on his way to a career season. Of course, he's never had a down season, just a couple of bad months last year playing injured.
Currently : Buck 9 hr, 25 rbi, .241/.269/.575 for $6M salary
Arencebia 8 hr, 16 rbi, .253/.267/.566 for $506K salary
According to these stats, you must love Arencebia by now. What a bargain. Only stat he's behind Buck in is rbi's; however, Jays team has been so bad getting on base and Buck has been basically clean up for a bad Mets team. So rbi's are more a function of that then a real difference.
When it comes to catcher I don't rate them strictly by offense. They have to call the pitches, unless it's being done from the bench.
The outlook for the Mets wasn't as high as for the Jays this season as far as I know. Anyhow, for all intents and purposes, it's been a nice season. Short but nice. My expectations of playoffs is gone but maybe they will surprise.
Like I alluded to previously, after such a disasterous month as the first/last one, it may only be a week or so before it''s basically all over (read 9 or more games out of the second wildcard spot - though one commentator claimed the magic number for post season doom is 10 games, in the American league East division historically).
The Jays are getting slaughtered tonight (10-1 at the moment, for those who stopped watching). :(
Anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Murphy's law, by Edward A. Murphy Jr., USAF, Aerospace Engineer
Like I alluded to previously, after such a disasterous month as the first/last one, it may only be a week or so before it''s basically all over (read 9 or more games out of the second wildcard spot - though one commentator claimed the magic number for post season doom is 10 games, in the American league East division historically).
The Jays are getting slaughtered tonight (10-1 at the moment, for those who stopped watching). :(
Comebacks that occurred in the past :
1978 Yankees 14 games out on July 20th
1995 Mariners 13 games out on Aug 3
They defied your rule easily. However, one might also note we've only had one year of the two wild card system and that new rule can significantly alter the chances to make the playoffs. Not every year but it will occasionally let someone in who would have had no chance in hell under the old system. I'm unclear why anyone thinks they can quote "historical" benchmarks when there is only one year of data. And you can't "pretend extrapolate" for other years because the existance of the extra playoff spots directly affects how teams react to their situations each year.
Anyone at or above .500 baseball at the all star break had realistic playoff chances last year in both leagues. So if the Jays get to .500 at any point until then you have prematurely signed their death certificate. Of course, you wrote them off after 9 games.
If you're lucky they'll suck all year and you can pretend you were a fan but knew it all along. But what if you're wrong ? What if they stumble back to .500 at the all star break, bolster their team with one trade adding some offensive punch, and get Reyes back for August/September ? Its perhaps not the most likely outcome but its also not some horrendous outlier that you seem to think it is. Vegas supports my view, they are still only 15-1 to win the American League. Obviously they aren't quite dead yet at those odds.
Last edited by Duncan Smith; Thursday, 2nd May, 2013, 04:01 AM.
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