COVID-19 ... how we cope :)

[Tom O'Donnell]

The curve has been flattened in this province. I await the opening of Ontario, approximately one month late, imo.

[Aris Marghetis]

The curve has been flattened in this province. I await the opening of Ontario, approximately one month late, imo.

I suspect that this flattening has been due to decent (although not superb) enactment of Social Distancing. However, aside from the flattening, I don't see what else we've achieved? Most notably, no common antibodies/immunity testing, and no apparently great Contact Tracing. In other words, when we open up, I'm concerned that we'll start another wave, that we'll have to flatten again?!

[Erik Malmsten]

The delay has been long. The chances of community spread in most places are very, very small. The major problem has been the slowness in getting everybody in nursing homes, staff and residents, tested, Once tested, those infected can be isolated. But unknown carriers will result in outbreaks at hospitals and carry it to cottage country. And it will spread among the homeless and in shelters. And among kids at camps and schools.

When the US border is reopened there will a second wave. but people's Vitamin D levels and immunity is higher in the summer, so fewer people with symptoms until the cold season.

[Hans Jung]

World 5 million plus cases

[Hans Jung]

Russia's numbers seem out of control but they still have a ways to go compared to New York state.

[Pargat Perrer]

I suspect that this flattening has been due to decent (although not superb) enactment of Social Distancing. However, aside from the flattening, I don't see what else we've achieved? Most notably, no common antibodies/immunity testing, and no apparently great Contact Tracing. In other words, when we open up, I'm concerned that we'll start another wave, that we'll have to flatten again?!

If someone told you that by NOT doing something you would avoid some big problem, but not doing that something was going to cost you lots of income, would you agree not to do it? The answer for about 99% of people is definitely no. They would take the risk and earn their income anyway..

This is precisely the dilemma we face with the virus. What's that, we must keep everything closed down to avoid a second wave which (going by Spanish Flu 1918 evidence) could be much worse than this first wave? But everything closed down until the winter means a collapsed economy, maybe beyond what government bailouts can fix.The economic collapse from staying closed is much more tangible and real than is the second wave from opening up. Not only that, but the younger healthier people will think they might survive a second wave, but not survive an economic collapse.

Therefore it is pretty much written in stone that we WILL open up this summer and we will thus be vulnerable to that second wave in the fall. We can only hope that the experts are wrong and the second wave either won't come or we will have some remedy for it.

[Aris Marghetis]

If someone told you that by NOT doing something you would avoid some big problem, but not doing that something was going to cost you lots of income, would you agree not to do it? The answer for about 99% of people is definitely no. They would take the risk and earn their income anyway..

This is precisely the dilemma we face with the virus. What's that, we must keep everything closed down to avoid a second wave which (going by Spanish Flu 1918 evidence) could be much worse than this first wave? But everything closed down until the winter means a collapsed economy, maybe beyond what government bailouts can fix.The economic collapse from staying closed is much more tangible and real than is the second wave from opening up. Not only that, but the younger healthier people will think they might survive a second wave, but not survive an economic collapse.

Therefore it is pretty much written in stone that we WILL open up this summer and we will thus be vulnerable to that second wave in the fall. We can only hope that the experts are wrong and the second wave either won't come or we will have some remedy for it.

Hello Pargat, I largely agree with your predictions. However, I guess where we might differ is regarding economic vs. social impact. At this point, I suspect that having big waves will have such elevated tolls on medical systems, that their resultant failures will inflame economic pain anyway. On the other hand, even many Canadians communities have demonstrated that there's a practical limit to their actual Social Distancing. It seems we just can't get enough genuine compliance, so I believe your prediction is more likely to happen, where economic pressures will, slowly but surely, have greater priority than (theoretical?) scripts from Social Distancing, etc. However, COVID-19 is not a compassionate person. It's not sitting there going "way to go Ontario, you've done so well that I'll cut you some slack". I believe it will be relentless until people practically give up on trying to cheat what seems to be the reality: without pre-existing immunity to slow down spread, it'll go through 60%-70% of the population before spread control isn't critically dependent on Social Distancing. I think that a widely available vaccine must be at least 12-18 months away. So back to my post above to Tom, I am disappointed that we haven't taken better advantage of the time offered by flattening the curve, to achieve two things well enough: 1) survivor immunity testing (which will dramatically lesson economic hits as "survivors" leap back to work), and 2) contact tracing like they have in South Korea, Taiwan, etc. (which I think is doomed in North America over civil rights)

Finally, I wish I shared your optimism about younger healthier people, but what would be an "acceptable" death rate for them? Worldwide the death rate for resolved (fully recovered OR deceased) cases is 14%. That's mostly older people, so far. However, the death rate for younger healthier people will probably fall between 1% and 4%. Is that acceptable for 60%-70% of us all? I'm cringing!

[Aris Marghetis]

Here's something related from CBC earlier this morning:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottaw...d-19-1.5570905

[Tom O'Donnell]

Having read the article, I come to the conclusion that we need to spread the virus now, when the weather is relatively nice and people can get plenty of sunshine and fresh air. Incidentally I personally will absolutely refuse to be traced by the government. If I found out that they installed something like that on my cellphone I would simply return the phone and cancel the service.

[Aris Marghetis]

Having read the article, I come to the conclusion that we need to spread the virus now, when the weather is relatively nice and people can get plenty of sunshine and fresh air. Incidentally I personally will absolutely refuse to be traced by the government. If I found out that they installed something like that on my cellphone I would simply return the phone and cancel the service.

Tom, I clearly hear you regarding the latter privacy point above (I anecdotally note that many people feel similarly, especially in North America).

But, I'm not getting your point(s) about actually allowing/enabling virus spread, and the part about "sunshine and fresh air". Please elaborate?

Thanks, regards, Aris.

[Tom O'Donnell]

1) There appears to be a link between Vitamin D deficiency and bad Covid outcomes. One source of Vitamin D is sunshine. Fresh air and exercise also helps with ...

2) Vitamin D is found to help with depression. I would be willing to bet that although social distancing and quarantining people for the first month was a net positive, over time the deleterious effects of prolonged quarantine (isolation, depression, alcoholism/drug abuse, spousal abuse, lack of exercise, boredom, increased stress due to job/income loss) is going to at the very least negate much of this. You save one basket of people by sacrificing another.

On top of that the government has absolutely no right to extend the lockdown "for our protection". We are free citizens, and having voluntarily done our duty to allow government time to protect elderly and sickly people, have no reason to listen to them anymore. I consider it a matter of my public duty to go outside every day. Better to have people with robust immune systems get infected than have millions of people waiting, weakening, sitting around hoping things work out and "big daddy government" saves us. I refuse to live that way.

The little dictators making the rules don't follow them. See: J Trudeau, D Ford, A Scheer, Mayor L Lightfoot (in the US), Gov JB Pritzker, UK's N Ferguson. If this pandemic has taught me one thing is that there are many wannabe dictators who want to tell everyone else how they should live.

[Aris Marghetis]

1) There appears to be a link between Vitamin D deficiency and bad Covid outcomes. One source of Vitamin D is sunshine. Fresh air and exercise also helps with ...

2) Vitamin D is found to help with depression. I would be willing to bet that although social distancing and quarantining people for the first month was a net positive, over time the deleterious effects of prolonged quarantine (isolation, depression, alcoholism/drug abuse, spousal abuse, lack of exercise, boredom, increased stress due to job/income loss) is going to at the very least negate much of this. You save one basket of people by sacrificing another.

On top of that the government has absolutely no right to extend the lockdown "for our protection". We are free citizens, and having voluntarily done our duty to allow government time to protect elderly and sickly people, have no reason to listen to them anymore. I consider it a matter of my public duty to go outside every day. Better to have people with robust immune systems get infected than have millions of people waiting, weakening, sitting around hoping things work out and "big daddy government" saves us. I refuse to live that way.

The little dictators making the rules don't follow them. See: J Trudeau, D Ford, A Scheer, Mayor L Lightfoot (in the US), Gov JB Pritzker, UK's N Ferguson. If this pandemic has taught me one thing is that there are many wannabe dictators who want to tell everyone else how they should live.

On one hand, I hear ya. I would prefer more study-level data regarding your claim of vitamin D deficiency and bad COVID outcomes. It seems a LOT of things correlate to bad COVID outcomes.

Anyway, I do hear ya, especially your #2 point. And I am also often frustrated with your "little dictators".

However, having said that all that, now if we just let this happen, wouldn't we be looking at minimum 1/4-million Canadian deaths (1%-4% of 60%-70% of over 38 million) in a super-spike curve?

The medical system certainly couldn't handle it, but as critically, could our "social contracts" survive it?

In other words, I'm pretty sure super-lockdown isn't possible in North America, and so it can't TOTALLY work. However, I'm thinking that the polar opposite (big death) will result in huge societal issues. So I think this is why we are where we are now, with seemingly not SUPERBLY effective measures, but rather a seemingly reasonable approach that feels like a frog in warming water lol

[Tom O'Donnell]

If you think 250K deaths leads to societal breakdown what do you think happens if the economy craters, millions are unemployed and bankrupted?

People should be free to sit around and hope for the best. Not mandated to do so. There are many types of risk. Life itself is risky. Big government will hopefully never change that.

[Aris Marghetis]

If you think 250K deaths leads to societal breakdown what do you think happens if the economy craters, millions are unemployed and bankrupted?

People should be free to sit around and hope for the best. Not mandated to do so. There are many types of risk. Life itself is risky. Big government will hopefully never change that.

Oh, I'm not saying I KNOW what would be worse, I'm just contemplating options. As I've mentioned before, given how this has been all playing out, I would have put most efforts into an immunity blood test. In my opinion that would have led to quicker (but safer) re-openings, which should reduce unemployment, bankruptcies, etc., while at the same time mitigating spread better than we're going to have in the next few months (the second wave). It sounds like you and I share disappointment in governments' management of this difficult situation. I haven't seen any great explanations yet on how and why SO MANY countries seem to be failing this pandemic challenge. Sometimes it feels like waiting in the attic of a house that's flooding, but without a better plan than crouching?!

And as you know from me personally, I am generally anti-big-government!

[Vlad Drkulec]

Finally, I wish I shared your optimism about younger healthier people, but what would be an "acceptable" death rate for them? Worldwide the death rate for resolved (fully recovered OR deceased) cases is 14%. That's mostly older people, so far. However, the death rate for younger healthier people will probably fall between 1% and 4%. Is that acceptable for 60%-70% of us all? I'm cringing!

Deaths for those over 100 is greater than deaths for those under 45 in absolute numbers. In Windsor 75% of deaths to date were in old folks homes or old age facilities. The death rate for younger healthier people is so close to zero percent as to be statistically insignificant.