COVID-19 ... how we cope :)

[Pargat Perrer]

Sid,

I totally agree with you that early intervention is the major key for success (although 85% is a bit overstated). But early intervention is not the first level of defence - it is the second one.

1. First level is not to allow virus spread in the country. That is exactly what Taiwan did. They did not close economy, they did not make lockdowns for everybody. They just put into quarantine everyone who entered the country. And for Taiwan this was the major reason, why they were such successful in fighting covid-19. They totally have had 1,050 cases only with 10 total deaths. Their case per million rate (44) is more than an order of magnitude less than mortality per million rate (609) in Canada. And Canada is not the worst. In Taiwan there were only about 200-300 people who needed any treatment. Perhaps, there was an early intervention for them as well, but in case of Taiwan this was a secondary matter.

2. If the country is not able to put everyone entering the boarder into quarantine (unfortunately, most countries were not able), then an early intervention becomes the second major factor.

3. And if early intervention was not applied - than in some situations lockdowns are reasonable. Lockdowns, probably, do not help to reduce total (all time) number of cases in the country. But lockdowns help to reduce number of cases in the country (or in particular area) which happen SIMULTANEOUSLY. Lockdowns only make sense in case if the health system in the area is overloaded, and there is not enough IC units and/or ventilators. So, the patients who otherwise would be easily treated may not be able to receive medical help due to the health system's collapse. That's exactly what happened in Bergamo, In NY, in some areas of Brasil and Mexico. And we are very close to such a situation in Ontario now - about 95% of IC units are occupied at the moment.

This is about the most sensible and well written post I've seen in this entire thread. Thank you Victor.

Taiwan definitely had the key advantage: early notice plus the willingness to enact those border controls. I don't know how many people travel to Taiwan annually, or whether tourism is a big industry there, but there must have been SOME economic impact from that decision that the authorities were willing to put up with.

The only thing I would say in reaction to this is that if the entire world had imposed a 14-day quarantine on visitors at the same time Taiwan did, the world economy would have possibly come to a screeching halt. Especially if they had maintained that policy right up to the present day. In that case, we might have the treatment being worse than the disease. So I have to suspect that Taiwan has handled it because they don't very much rely economically on foreign visitors.

[Lucas Davies]

Agreed. I am reminded of something that the German philosopher Schopenhauer wrote: "All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident."

This reminds me of something that Hegel once wrote:

The Now that is night is kept fixed, i.e. it is treated as what it is given out to be, as something which is; but it proves to be rather a something which is not. The Now itself no doubt maintains itself, but as what is not night; similarly in its relation to the day which the Now is at present, it maintains itself as something that is also not day, or as altogether something negative. This self-maintaining Now is therefore not something immediate but something mediated; for, qua something that remains and preserves itself, it is determined through and by means of the fact that something else, namely day and night, is not. Thereby it is just as much as ever it was before, Now, and in being this simple fact, it is indifferent to what is still associated with it; just as little as night or day is its being, it is just as truly also day and night; it is not in the least affected by this otherness through which it is what it is.

[Victor Itkine]

The only thing I would say in reaction to this is that if the entire world had imposed a 14-day quarantine on visitors at the same time Taiwan did, the world economy would have possibly come to a screeching halt. Especially if they had maintained that policy right up to the present day. In that case, we might have the treatment being worse than the disease. So I have to suspect that Taiwan has handled it because they don't very much rely economically on foreign visitors.

Well, there is no doubt that 14-day quarantine for all visitors and returning residents for about 2-year period would negatively affect the economy of any country. But not more (and, likely, much less) than 3-4 total lockdowns for about 1 month period each for the entire country. This is an issue of priorities. I will not undertake to judge which is more important: to slow down the economy for couple of years, or to save thousands of lives of the elderly.

[Victor Itkine]

The first line of defense is always treatment and treatment as early as possible.

I absolutely agree with the early treatment concept.

However, the first line of defence is not to allow the decease to cross your border. I believe, this is obvious. If none of the infected step on your land, there will be nothing to heal. Imagine for a second that this is not a pandemic of covid-19 - a mild virus - but pandemic of bubonic plague (God forbid!). In this case, all countries would impose the strictest quarantine. Not only a single person, but not a single mouse would cross the border!

[Victor Itkine]

“Comparing weekly mortality in 24 European countries: more severe lockdown policies have not been assoc with lower mortality.. The lockdowns have not worked as intended”

https://academic.oup.com/cesifo/adva...fab003/6199605

Some time ago you referred to another medical article with the similar research and similar conclusions.. Both of these articles are correct for most of the cases, when the healthcare system of the region is not overwhelmed. However, we know at least 5-10 situations when healthcare systems have collapsed (as I mentioned above: Bergamo, NY, some regions in Brasil, some regions in Mexico, Sweden, and perhaps few more). For such devastating situations correlation between mortality rates and lockdowns must be analysed separately. And I have no doubt that this correlation will be very strong. There is no way that the healthcare system of any region has collapsed after a strict lockdown.

[Sid Belzberg]

I absolutely agree with the early treatment concept.

However, the first line of defence is not to allow the decease to cross your border. I believe, this is obvious. If none of the infected step on your land, there will be nothing to heal. Imagine for a second that this is not a pandemic of covid-19 - a mild virus - but pandemic of bubonic plague (God forbid!). In this case, all countries would impose the strictest quarantine. Not only a single person, but not a single mouse would cross the border!

Victor, I am glad you agree with the "early treatment concept", which has been the standard of care in medicine since time immemorial. We do not have entire lockdowns and quarantines for the flu virus or cold virus. As it turns out the IFR rate for healthy people under 70 untreated is less than the flu. If you have comorbidities or you are over 70 and you feel COVID-like symptoms studies have shown for some time now that progression to worst symptoms followed by hospitalization can be reduced by 84% with early treatment.
"The odds of hospitalization in the treated patient group was 84% less than in the untreated patient group and was statistically significant (P < 0.001). The odds of all-cause death in the treated patient group was 80% less than in the untreated patient group but did not reach statistical significance (P = 0.12). COVID-19, coronavirus disease 2019; CI, confidence interval."

https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...24857920304258


With early treatment even for the group that is affected the odds of survival is 99.2%. In other words a very easily treatable virus. Sorry, but there is a reason big pharma and its corrupted govt counterparts are very reluctant to let Dr's do their jobs as they see fit. It is all about $$$. Lockdowns and masks are simply a way of blackmailing the population into using experimental gene therapies AKA "vaccines" and it has nothing to do with a return to normal as our prime minister so clearly outlined in the video I posted here.

[Brad Thomson]

This reminds me of something that Hegel once wrote:

Hegel is here in my opinion referring in metaphorical language to what he generally refers to as the Absolute Idea, which is the one Substance, which is God. For Hegel there is nothing that does not change, all is flux, as is the case for Heraclitus. God, for Hegel, is always in a process of becoming, always changing. We cannot think of or in any sense conceive of Being generally speaking, we can only think of or conceive of specific beings. Thus Being, then, is Nothing. But likewise, we cannot think of or conceive of Nothing, for all thought has a specific object which is something. Thus Nothing, then, is Being. Therefore Nothing and Being both do not exist in and of themselves, the concepts necessarily flow back and forth into and out of one another, hence Becoming, or Change, is the only reality. The first three categories of Hegel's system of logic reflect this: Being, Nothing, Becoming.

My favourite Hegel quote: "Reason is the conscious certainty of being all reality."

And if humans do not soon start exercising reason instead of stupidity our reality will come to an end.

[Bob Gillanders]

Yes, and a radical reduction in the population of the planet is our only hope. If we do not do it intelligently ourselves by a vast, organized campaign explaining to people the need to voluntarily not reproduce, then nature will do it for us, which is already happening.

I read somewhere that the Earth can support about 2 billion people, or about 25% of the current 8 billion we have today. You should check out a documentary I saw recently on Netflix by David Attenborough, A life on our planet. A powerful narrative of how we have very little time to stop the destruction of our eco system and thus save ourselves, but then a surprising upbeat ending on how we do it. He goes into strategies we can employ to increase the capacity of nature to sustain us. I think you may enjoy it. Maybe lift your spirit about the future.

[Brad Thomson]

Thanks Bob, I will have a look.

[Victor Itkine]

Victor, I am glad you agree with the "early treatment concept", which has been the standard of care in medicine since time immemorial. We do not have entire lockdowns and quarantines for the flu virus or cold virus. As it turns out the IFR rate for healthy people under 70 untreated is less than the flu. If you have comorbidities or you are over 70 and you feel COVID-like symptoms studies have shown for some time now that progression to worst symptoms followed by hospitalization can be reduced by 84% with early treatment.
"The odds of hospitalization in the treated patient group was 84% less than in the untreated patient group and was statistically significant (P < 0.001). The odds of all-cause death in the treated patient group was 80% less than in the untreated patient group but did not reach statistical significance (P = 0.12). COVID-19, coronavirus disease 2019; CI, confidence interval."

https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...24857920304258


With early treatment even for the group that is affected the odds of survival is 99.2%. In other words a very easily treatable virus. Sorry, but there is a reason big pharma and its corrupted govt counterparts are very reluctant to let Dr's do their jobs as they see fit. It is all about $$$. Lockdowns and masks are simply a way of blackmailing the population into using experimental gene therapies AKA "vaccines" and it has nothing to do with a return to normal as our prime minister so clearly outlined in the video I posted here.

Sid,

At this time I agree with everything in your post, except the last sentence.

Also, one important piece of information is missing in your post(s). Yes, the IFR rate of covid-19 is less than of flu. However, the contagion rate of covid-19 is almost twice higher than of flu (2.2 - 2.5 vs 1.3). That's why, seasonal flu usually does not lead to a World-wide pandemic; the only exception I know was Spanish flu about 100 years ago. But covid-19 became a World-wide pandemic, because of high contagion rate (infection occurs exponentially). If you'll add to this that covid-19 incubation period is 14 days versus 2 days for flu, and that over 90% of people, who were infected by covid-19, did not have any symptoms or have had very mild symptoms (i.e. they did not stay at home as if they were infected by flu) - you will have a full picture, why so many people were infected with covid-19, and why we have the pandemic.

That's why, wearing masks is justified. By the way, in Japan and in few other Asian countries people are often wearing masks when going outside even if they have just symptoms of cold or flu (I mean, they were doing this before covid-19 pandemic; I saw this in Japan in April of 2019). They are doing this in courtesy to protect other people.

In some densely populated areas, the spread of covid-19 infection was so rapid that the number of severe infections exceeded the number of hospital beds and IC units in the region. As a result, the critically ill, most of whom would have been easily rescued in the hospitals, were left to die in their homes. We have seen this in Bergamo, in New York and in few other regions. In Bergamo, there were not enough places in cemeteries, and people were taken to be buried in Bologna. In New York, there was not enough room in morgues, and there were mobile morgues on the streets everywhere. The dead, whose bodies were not collected by relatives for 72 hours, were buried in New York in mass graves.

This kind of situation do not happen with seasonal flu or cold. That's why, in such extraordinary situations - in order to prevent the collapse of local healthcare systems - lockdowns are more than justified. Of course, an early treatment instead of lockdown would be preferable. But if this possibility was missed (or ignored) - then you need lockdowns to prevent collapses of healthcare systems if they are in jeopardy.

In all other cases, I agree with you that lockdowns are useless and pointless.

[Sid Belzberg]

Sid,

At this time I agree with everything in your post, except the last sentence.

Also, one important piece of information is missing in your post(s). Yes, the IFR rate of covid-19 is less than of flu. However, the contagion rate of covid-19 is almost twice higher than of flu (2.2 - 2.5 vs 1.3). That's why, seasonal flu usually does not lead to a World-wide pandemic; the only exception I know was Spanish flu about 100 years ago. But covid-19 became a World-wide pandemic, because of high contagion rate (infection occurs exponentially). If you'll add to this that covid-19 incubation period is 14 days versus 2 days for flu, and that over 90% of people, who were infected by covid-19, did not have any symptoms or have had very mild symptoms (i.e. they did not stay at home as if they were infected by flu) - you will have a full picture, why so many people were infected with covid-19, and why we have the pandemic.

That's why, wearing masks is justified. By the way, in Japan and in few other Asian countries people are often wearing masks when going outside even if they have just symptoms of cold or flu (I mean, they were doing this before covid-19 pandemic; I saw this in Japan in April of 2019). They are doing this in courtesy to protect other people.

In some densely populated areas, the spread of covid-19 infection was so rapid that the number of severe infections exceeded the number of hospital beds and IC units in the region. As a result, the critically ill, most of whom would have been easily rescued in the hospitals, were left to die in their homes. We have seen this in Bergamo, in New York and in few other regions. In Bergamo, there were not enough places in cemeteries, and people were taken to be buried in Bologna. In New York, there was not enough room in morgues, and there were mobile morgues on the streets everywhere. The dead, whose bodies were not collected by relatives for 72 hours, were buried in New York in mass graves.

This kind of situation do not happen with seasonal flu or cold. That's why, in such extraordinary situations - in order to prevent the collapse of local healthcare systems - lockdowns are more than justified. Of course, an early treatment instead of lockdown would be preferable. But if this possibility was missed (or ignored) - then you need lockdowns to prevent collapses of healthcare systems if they are in jeopardy.

In all other cases, I agree with you that lockdowns are useless and pointless.

Hi Victor,
if you agree with everything except the last sentence that is good. The common cold virus is easily treatable and extremely contagious. The Covid19 virus is a variant of the common cold virus and since you agree it is easily treatable that negates the need for lockdowns and masks. As for why so many Western Govt's are engaged in therapeutic nihilism is a long and involved story that sadly is not a good look for Western civilization.

[Victor Itkine]

The Covid19 virus is a variant of the common cold virus and since you agree it is easily treatable that negates the need for lockdowns and masks.

I agree that covid-19 virus in most cases is easily treatable, but I do not agree that it is a variant of the common cold virus. I don't have medical background, but what I have read - this virus is a new one which mutated to human from bets, and its structure is different than the structure of other common (cold) viruses.

In any case, colds generally do not result in serious health problems, such as pneumonia, bacterial infections, or hospitalizations. Such cases are very rare. So, if too many people in a region will get cold virus simultaneously, this will never lead to healthcare system's collapse as it happened in Italy, NY, etc..This is the significant difference.

[Sid Belzberg]

I agree that covid-19 virus in most cases is easily treatable, but I do not agree that it is a variant of the common cold virus. I don't have medical background, but what I have read - this virus is a new one which mutated to human from bets, and its structure is different than the structure of other common (cold) viruses.

In any case, colds generally do not result in serious health problems, such as pneumonia, bacterial infections, or hospitalizations. Such cases are very rare. So, if too many people in a region will get cold virus simultaneously, this will never lead to healthcare system's collapse as it happened in Italy, NY, etc..This is the significant difference.

but I do not agree that it is a variant of the common cold virus

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-o...19-cases-68146

The Covid virus is part of the family of coronaviruses aka the cold virus. The mutations along the spike of the COVID19 virus
did not occur in nature but a product of chimeric research sponsored by Dr. Fauci's NIH starting in 2015 of the lab in Wuhan
after chimeric research was banned in the US. The mutation was designed to be ace2 receptor friendly and was part of
a series of "gain of function experiments" These documents are from a well-known scientist who worked in Wuhan and turned into a
whistleblower during the pandemic at great danger to herself and her family.

https://zenodo.org/record/4073131#.YGc-d-T3aEc

https://zenodo.org/record/4650821#.YGc-7-T3aEe

So, if too many people in a region will get cold virus simultaneously, this will never lead to the healthcare system's collapse as it happened in Italy, NY, etc..This is a significant difference.

If thugs push people out of an airplane and deny them access to parachutes the death rate of "sky diving" will be off the charts and designated a far more dangerous sport than it is. In New York, to this day Dr's are harassed if they prescribe HCQ or IVM, and depending on where they are in the state pharmacies simply will not fill the prescription.
The death rate in New York was deliberately inflated to pursue the narrative of a dangerous virus. Here is a terrible story of an undercover video from
a nurse at the Queen's Elmhurst hospital in NYC that was the epicenter of this mass murder during the height of the pandemic

[Victor Itkine]

Sid,

Many of the arguments you advocate are very reasonable. But sometimes you are losing common sense.

The Covid virus is part of the family of coronaviruses aka the cold virus. The mutations along the spike of the COVID19 virus
did not occur in nature but a product of chimeric research sponsored by Dr. Fauci's NIH starting in 2015 of the lab in Wuhan
after chimeric research was banned in the US. The mutation was designed to be ace2 receptor friendly and was part of
a series of "gain of function experiments" These documents are from a well-known scientist who worked in Wuhan and turned into a
whistleblower during the pandemic at great danger to herself and her family.

https://zenodo.org/record/4073131#.YGc-d-T3aEc

https://zenodo.org/record/4650821#.YGc-7-T3aEe

I will not argue, did this virus occur in nature or not. This is not 100% clear yet. But this is irrelevant for the purpose of our discussion. What is relevant is that humanity has never encountered this particular virus before fall of 2019. This is the fact.

If thugs push people out of an airplane and deny them access to parachutes the death rate of "sky diving" will be off the charts and designated a far more dangerous sport than it is. In New York, to this day Dr's are harassed if they prescribe HCQ or IVM, and depending on where they are in the state pharmacies simply will not fill the prescription.
The death rate in New York was deliberately inflated to pursue the narrative of a dangerous virus. Here is a terrible story of an undercover video from
a nurse at the Queen's Elmhurst hospital in NYC that was the epicenter of this mass murder during the height of the pandemic

Here is the critical difference: to treat cold virus you don't need to prescribe HCQ or IVM. Infected person usually recovers in 2-3 days. Even without using any medication, cold virus usually lasts not more than 7 days. Covid-19 is very different. It has incubation period 14 days, and it is so contagious, that its uncontrolled spread can destroy healthcare systems of entire regions. This is also the fact.

So, yes, if early intervention with HCQ or IVM or with whatever else would apply, the spread of the virus could be easily controlled without lockdowns. But unfortunate reality is that early intervention is harassed and not used in the Western countries (which is bad). Thus, in such a situation, it is better to have lockdowns rather than mobility morgues on the streets.

[Sid Belzberg]

Sid,

Many of the arguments you advocate are very reasonable. But sometimes you are losing common sense.




I will not argue, did this virus occur in nature or not. This is not 100% clear yet. But this is irrelevant for the purpose of our discussion. What is relevant is that humanity has never encountered this particular virus before fall of 2019. This is the fact.





Here is the critical difference: to treat cold virus you don't need to prescribe HCQ or IVM. Infected person usually recovers in 2-3 days. Even without using any medication, cold virus usually lasts not more than 7 days. Covid-19 is very different. It has incubation period 14 days, and it is so contagious, that its uncontrolled spread can destroy healthcare systems of entire regions. This is also the fact.

So, yes, if early intervention with HCQ or IVM or with whatever else would apply, the spread of the virus could be easily controlled without lockdowns. But unfortunate reality is that early intervention is harassed and not used in the Western countries (which is bad). Thus, in such a situation, it is better to have lockdowns rather than mobility morgues on the streets.

But Unfortunate reality is that early intervention is harassed and not used in the Western countries (which is bad)

Actually, it is not that simple. The vast majority of deaths took place in Canada took place in long-term care facilities. Lockdowns and masks for the general population does not solve the problem for those in LTC. Almost all old people in Canada are d3 and zinc-deficient both of which have a very good track record of reducing Covid- Mortality.
They are being denied this and I have documentation to prove it. Check out page 30.

https://www.apesquebec.org/sites/def...ie_present.pdf
https://c19vitamind.com/

Forget lockdowns and masks as even d3 and zinc and Quercetin show efficacy as have other flavonoid-rich compounds such as Artemisia. All of these are available at any vitamin shop or health food store. No need for prescriptions. Gov't and big pharma do not talk about this, they impose lockdowns and masks as a way of blackmailing the population into buying experimental gene therapies aka vaccines, and claim no other way to treat the virus.
In short, the population is being scammed.