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Everyone ready for an update?
While the media continues to say Bernie has no chance, even claiming at times now that he has been "mathematically eliminated", here is the truth.
Pledged delegates so far: Clinton 56%, Sanders 44%.
With 9 states remaining to vote: If Sanders can get 67% of those remaining pledged delegates, he has the majority of pledged delegates.
Yes, a difficult task, which he always acknowledges at every rally and speech.
The polls continue to say Sanders will do better than Clinton against Trump.
So, maybe the super delegates will reconsider before voting at the convention! Maybe, just maybe!
This is not over. Bernie has not been eliminated.
He won Oregon yesterday, and lost Kentucky by a very narrow margin.
The polls continue to say Sanders will do better than Clinton against Trump.
This is something I don't quite get. Most U.S. presidential races are decided by about 20% of the voters. The Republicans will have their core supporters who won't budge, and the same for the Democrats.
The 40% core Democrat voters will vote for either Sanders or Clinton no matter what.
Trump is a polarizing candidate within his own party. Sanders is far more left-wing than Clinton. I don't see how Sanders would do better since Clinton would be more likely to draw more disaffected "moderate" Republicans to her camp than I see Sanders doing.
This is something I don't quite get. Most U.S. presidential races are decided by about 20% of the voters. The Republicans will have their core supporters who won't budge, and the same for the Democrats.
The 40% core Democrat voters will vote for either Sanders or Clinton no matter what.
Trump is a polarizing candidate within his own party. Sanders is far more left-wing than Clinton. I don't see how Sanders would do better since Clinton would be more likely to draw more disaffected "moderate" Republicans to her camp than I see Sanders doing.
Get yer popcorn out.
Steve
Hi Steve: I think the wildcard in all this current politicking, is the "anti-establishment fervour" that the Trump and Sanders candidacies have brought out of the woodwork into full view....and not only view, but into active political participation. There is anecdote after anecdote in both campaigns of those who had given up on "politics as usual" and who hadn't bothered to vote for years. There is a new constituency on both the right and left.
I think the polls show Sanders doing better has to do with this. There are "dropouts" also in the middle......and for them, Hillary is anathema.....she is to the revolution, THE ESTABLISHMENT CANDIDATE. Adopting Sanders policies will not help on this....it doesn't matter what she says......it is who she IS! These voters will vote Sanders if not way off to the right, but they also will be willing, perhaps holding their noses, to vote Donald over Hillary.
Hi Steve: I think the wildcard in all this current politicking, is the "anti-establishment fervour" that the Trump and Sanders candidacies have brought out of the woodwork into full view....and not only view, but into active political participation. There is anecdote after anecdote in both campaigns of those who had given up on "politics as usual" and who hadn't bothered to vote for years. There is a new constituency on both the right and left.
I think the polls show Sanders doing better has to do with this. There are "dropouts" also in the middle......and for them, Hillary is anathema.....she is to the revolution, THE ESTABLISHMENT CANDIDATE. Adopting Sanders policies will not help on this....it doesn't matter what she says......it is who she IS! These voters will vote Sanders if not way off to the right, but they also will be willing, perhaps holding their noses, to vote Donald over Hillary.
Bob A
Thanks Bob A. Well said. The traditional left vs right arguments no longer explain what is happening in the USA. That is why so many pundits have gotten everything wrong. There are revolutionary forces at work here.
Hi Steve: I think the wildcard in all this current politicking, is the "anti-establishment fervour" that the Trump and Sanders candidacies have brought out of the woodwork into full view....and not only view, but into active political participation. There is anecdote after anecdote in both campaigns of those who had given up on "politics as usual" and who hadn't bothered to vote for years. There is a new constituency on both the right and left.
I think the polls show Sanders doing better has to do with this. There are "dropouts" also in the middle......and for them, Hillary is anathema.....she is to the revolution, THE ESTABLISHMENT CANDIDATE. Adopting Sanders policies will not help on this....it doesn't matter what she says......it is who she IS! These voters will vote Sanders if not way off to the right, but they also will be willing, perhaps holding their noses, to vote Donald over Hillary.
Bob A
Hi Bobs (A & G):
While there is certainly a lot of anti-establishment fervour at work here, I still find it hard to see any core Democrats voting for Trump, even as a "protest" vote. I can see disaffected core Republicans voting for the Democrat candidate, but I see that happening more with Hillary than with Sanders, just because of the left-right issue.
I have no idea which way the mushy middle will vote. Both Trump and Sanders are charismatic, while Hillary generally isn't. As for the disaffected and/or disenfranchised voters, that will be interesting. Despite Trump's charisma, his various over-the-top remarks have worked against him, and will likely continue to work against him, with both women and visible minorities. I think Hillary stands a better chance with those groups, particularly gender-based votes, than Sanders.
Hillary's strengths are that she is experienced and female (important given Trump's gender comments). Her weakness is that she is seen as "establishment".
Sanders' strengths are that he is charismatic and an "outsider". His weakness is that he may be too far to the left for the taste of core Republican or "mushy middle" voters.
Thanks Jack. A great read.
Steve - if you want to understand what's going on in US politics, and why Sanders instead of Clinton, this article is a must read.
Thanks Jack. A great read.
Steve - if you want to understand what's going on in US politics, and why Sanders instead of Clinton, this article is a must read.
Ok Bob. I've read it. Ummm, it had a lot of "weasel words" gratuitously sprinkled throughout. How does that leftie opinion piece (it's not an article) explain what's happening in U.S. politics?
And if Sanders were to bolt for the Green (or Purple or whatever) party, you would see Trump as president. There wouldn't be a run-off as this guy thinks. Trump would retain his supporters, Clinton would retain some core supporters, and Sanders would likely be out standing in his field.
Ok Bob. I've read it. Ummm, it had a lot of "weasel words" gratuitously sprinkled throughout. How does that leftie opinion piece (it's not an article) explain what's happening in U.S. politics?
And if Sanders were to bolt for the Green (or Purple or whatever) party, you would see Trump as president. There wouldn't be a run-off as this guy thinks. Trump would retain his supporters, Clinton would retain some core supporters, and Sanders would likely be out standing in his field.
Steve
Indications are that it won't matter if Sanders mounts a 3rd party run. Clinton may have to offer him a VP slot to keep his supporters (at least the most rabid ones, which are university students mostly) from going to Trump in enough numbers to swing the result in one or two (or more) battleground states. But last night it was reported that Clinton is making a move to offer the VP slot to Mark Cuban (of Shark Tank fame). If it weren't for Sanders, Cuban would be a most interesting choice as running mate.
Trump has very quickly made up an 11 % point deficit on Clinton, and I believe this is just the beginning. Americans are foolish enough to believe someone who portrays himself as tough and anti-establishment, even as each day he becomes more and more establishment and less and less tough. The Trump they will get will not be the Trump that ran in the primaries. The Trump they will get will be molded by the system into a typical politician, no matter how he portrays it otherwise.
It's too bad Sanders is so old, because his ideas would gain much more favor with Americans in 2020. This age factor is why Sanders won't get out of the race -- it's now or never for him, and possibly for his revolution (unless there is someone as 'charismatic' (?) waiting in the wings to take up his ideas).
Only the rushing is heard...
Onward flies the bird.
Ok Bob. I've read it. Ummm, it had a lot of "weasel words" gratuitously sprinkled throughout. How does that leftie opinion piece (it's not an article) explain what's happening in U.S. politics?
And if Sanders were to bolt for the Green (or Purple or whatever) party, you would see Trump as president. There wouldn't be a run-off as this guy thinks. Trump would retain his supporters, Clinton would retain some core supporters, and Sanders would likely be out standing in his field.
Steve
Steve, do you not see the parallels between US and Austria? The Austrian election saw 2 fringe parties (and an independent) crush the 2 mainstream parties! The outsiders demolishing the establishment candidates. That is what is in play in the US election. Trump crushed the Republicans, and Sanders would beat the Democrats if he had enough time. Trump’s celebrity status gave him a head start. Just like the Austrians, Americans are so angry at their politicians they would elect anyone to replace them.
There is no runoff election like in Austria, so that’s different. But if it’s Trump (outsider) vs. Clinton (establishment), Trump gets the angry vote.
Sanders (if he loses to Clinton) will endorse Clinton to help defeat Trump. He has said that often. This talk of 3rd party stuff is just media fiction.
Trump has very quickly made up an 11 % point deficit on Clinton, and I believe this is just the beginning. Americans are foolish enough to believe someone who portrays himself as tough and anti-establishment, even as each day he becomes more and more establishment and less and less tough. The Trump they will get will not be the Trump that ran in the primaries. The Trump they will get will be molded by the system into a typical politician, no matter how he portrays it otherwise.
Hi Paul, it will be interesting to watch the Trump transformation you are anticipating. I believe it will be less than you think. I think Trump is such an ego maniac that "growth" as a politician will be difficult for him. We'll see.
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