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March 15th will be very interesting, almost as much as my Bruins beating the Sharks. On that day The Bern will need ruffly half of the 691 dels, but I'm beginning to believe he could actually do a lot better. Hollywood, still mostly silent.
Well, the media continues to tell us again and again and again, Hillary has it won, it's all over, Bernie has no chance, blah blah blah, and now back to Trump and his latest bullshit. They do such a pathetic job of reporting. Clinton leads the delegate count to date, but a closer look is revealing.
Total pledged delegates - 4,051
Won so far: Clinton 1,139, Sanders 825
Still up for grabs: 2,087 - no voting yet on more than half.
Clinton’s lead is not surprising since she is very strong in the south. The southern states have now voted, so she won’t have that advantage going forward. The next 3 states voting next tuesday are Arizona, Idaho, and Utah. Sanders leads the polls in all three.
And remember, If you see delegate counts reported with Clinton with a huge lead, they are including unpledged delegates (or superdelegates). Yes, Clinton has a lot of these. But when she ran against Obama, many of them switched to Obama when he took the lead in pledged delegates. Okay!
Well, the media continues to tell us again and again and again, Hillary has it won, it's all over, Bernie has no chance, blah blah blah, and now back to Trump and his latest bullshit. They do such a pathetic job of reporting. Clinton leads the delegate count to date, but a closer look is revealing.
If you compare the reporting of the MSM, then what you find is that Republican rivals to Donald Trump are characterized as legitimate rivals to the leading candidate - despite showing much worse than Sanders is in relation to HRC - and Sanders himself is characterized as "finished", "should drop out", etc. The double standard requires some real cognitive dissonance.
Or prejudice, pure and simple.
Dogs will bark, but the caravan of chess moves on.
Re: MSM says Sanders should drop out but Trump rivals stay etc.
Well, the media continues to tell us Hillary has it in the bag.
Bernie has no chance, it’s pointless, go home, give it up, nice try but it’s the math.
Well then, let’s look at the math.
But first, back up to last tuesday, Bernie wins 2 states (Idaho, Utah), Hillary wins 1 (Arizona).
Sure, Arizona is the biggest, but the delegate count?
Sanders 76, Clinton 55: Sanders wins 58% of the delegates.
Total pledged delegates won so far:
Clinton 1,228
Sanders 934
Pledged delegates still to be contested = 1,889
This race is not over.
If Sanders can win 1,092 more, he will have the majority of pledged delegates.
That is 58%, same as last tuesday. Interesting eh!
If he wins a majority of pledged delegates, will the super delegates stay with Clinton?
Some will, but he only needs to win 50% of them.
Today, 3 states are voting: Alaska, Hawaii, Washington.
Sanders is expected to do well.
Today, 3 states are voting: Alaska, Hawaii, Washington.
Sanders is expected to do well.
Sanders still has a hill to climb, but…...
An update...
Sanders sweeps all 3 states: winning 104 of 142 pledged delegates. 73%
If Bernie can win another 988 pledged delegates (57% of those yet to be contested), then he wins a majority of pledged delegates. Still a steep climb, but........
Next up, Wisconsin on April 5
The race is not over. And if the birds could vote!
Re: MSM says Sanders should drop out but Trump rivals stay etc.
I don't think Sanders can win the nomination. But his resilience and willingness to speak out on major issues are making the Democratic campaign very interesting. The way he is presenting these issues should resonate right through the presidential race, with the election set for early November.
Re: MSM says Sanders should drop out but Trump rivals stay etc.
An update.....
Bernie wins again. Wisconsin.
Next up is Wyoming on April 9.
Then the big one, New York on April 19.
Still a steep climb for Sanders, but he keeps going.
He still needs 57% of the remaining pledged delegates to win a majority.
If he does, do the super delegates reconsider their votes?
Meanwhile at the circus, Trump loses Wisconsin to Cruz.
Trump, what a loser!
Next up is Wyoming on April 9.
Then the big one, New York on April 19.
Still a steep climb for Sanders, but he keeps going.
He still needs 57% of the remaining pledged delegates to win a majority.
If he does, do the super delegates reconsider their votes?
Meanwhile at the circus, Trump loses Wisconsin to Cruz.
Trump, what a loser!
Hi Bob G
The answer to your question: Nope (The Democratic Party Establishment (DPE) will shoot anyone who tries - right to bear arms and all that....)
The answer to your question: Nope (The Democratic Party Establishment (DPE) will shoot anyone who tries - right to bear arms and all that....)
Bob A
It happened before during the previous time Hillary ran. So it could happen again. I doubt it will. Hillary's more experienced now and Sanders, while very likeable, doesn't have the oratory power that Obama did/does.
We'll see what happens. I'm ok with either Democrat candidate. I personally prefer Sanders, but I think Hillary would stand a better chance against Trump. And while I think it would be a fascinating spectacle to see Trump (or Donald S. Cherry) as president of the U.S., I would also want to make sure I knew where the nearest fallout shelter was.
Re: MSM says Sanders should drop out but Trump rivals stay etc.
Bernie wins Wyoming.
He gets 56% of the vote, but splits the pledged delegates with Hillary, 7 each.
But, to summarize since Mar 15, Sanders has won 7 of 8 states, and 237 of 373 pledged delegates.
If Bernie can win 932 of the remaining 1647 pledged delegates (57%), he would have a majority of pledged delegates. Would then enough super delegates change their vote?
New York is up next. Still a steep hill to climb, but what if he actually wins New York.
Anyway, this race isn't over yet no matter how often the media tells you otherwise.
Last edited by Bob Gillanders; Sunday, 10th April, 2016, 07:31 AM.
Bernie wins Wyoming.
He gets 56% of the vote, but splits the pledged delegates with Hillary, 7 each.
But, to summarize since Mar 15, Sanders has won 7 of 8 states, and 237 of 373 pledged delegates.
If Bernie can win 932 of the remaining 1647 pledged delegates (57%), he would have a majority of pledged delegates. Would then enough super delegates change their vote?
New York is up next. Still a steep hill to climb, but what if he actually wins New York.
Anyway, this race isn't over yet no matter how often the media tells you otherwise.
Hi Bob G:
I support Bernie too.
But......the unpledged delegates (SuperDelegates) are his death knell, IMHO.
The Democratic Party Establishment (DPE), from which most of the unpledged delegates come, will have nothing of changing votes at the summer Convention. They do not want Bernie's "revolution". They are not stupid.....they also will become victims of any "revolution"........the DPE has influence, and will win the nomination for Hillary, regardless of what the rank and file Democrats may want.
Re: MSM says Sanders should drop out but Trump rivals stay etc.
I consider Clinton to be the most dangerous candidate to world safety short of Cruz. Having said that, she currently has over 2 million more votes than Sanders. How Sanders' supporters think that he has some sort of mandate to lead is a total mystery to me.
"Tom is a well known racist, and like most of them he won't admit it, possibly even to himself." - Ed Seedhouse, October 4, 2020.
The Democratic Party Establishment (DPE), from which most of the unpledged delegates come, will have nothing of changing votes at the summer Convention. They do not want Bernie's "revolution". They are not stupid.....they also will become victims of any "revolution"........the DPE has influence, and will win the nomination for Hillary, regardless of what the rank and file Democrats may want.
Certainly, somewhat disappointing........
Anyone agree with my analysis?
Bob A
That is the argument given by those who have concluded long ago that Clinton would be the Democratic nominee. It’s the math stupid argument. Well, I believe I have been careful not to predict a Sanders win, but I do believe that the probability of a Clinton win to be significantly lower than 100%.
If Hillary does win, then at least Bernie has given voice to important issues. Hopefully she would then pick up the torch and run with it.
That is the argument given by those who have concluded long ago that Clinton would be the Democratic nominee. It’s the math stupid argument. Well, I believe I have been careful not to predict a Sanders win, but I do believe that the probability of a Clinton win to be significantly lower than 100%.
If Hillary does win, then at least Bernie has given voice to important issues. Hopefully she would then pick up the torch and run with it.
Hi Bob G:
Agreed. I believe it is more important to Bernie, personally, and his supporters, to preach "the revolution" from the primaries/caucuses platform, all the way into the summer Convention, than actually winning (Which they also hope to do....which isn't going to happen, unfortunately). And the Democrats, with Hillary, can thank their lucky stars about who the three possible opposition candidates will be.....anyone decent and a bit centrist from the Republicans, might well defeat "Hillary, the Establishment, the Obama more of the same".
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