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Dark Knight / Le Chevalier Noir
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---- Nous avons besoin d'un traduction français!
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Re: Bernie Sanders is the first Jew in US history to win a Presidential primary.
A few millenia ago someone said "If you not a socialist when you're twenty, there's something wrong with you. If you're still a socialist when you're thirty, there's something wrong with you."
A few millenia ago someone said "If you not a socialist when you're twenty, there's something wrong with you. If you're still a socialist when you're thirty, there's something wrong with you."
Hi Denis:
It continues:"You then have another 45 years (Bernie will be 75 y.o. on Sept. 8, 2016) to undo the error, and get back to the original correct position!"
Re: Bernie Sanders is the first Jew in US history to win a Presidential primary.
An interesting question I posed to myself today,
“what is the probability of each contestant to be US President?
So, I built a spreadsheet, and worked out the following probabilities.
Based on the following assumptions:
Republicans: Probability of a contested convention 50%
No convention: Trump 90%, Cruz 10%
Convention: Trump 25%, Cruz 35%, Kasich 20%, Romney 10%, Ryan 10%
Democrats: Probability of a contested convention 40%
No convention: Clinton 90%, Sanders 10%
Convention: Clinton 70%, Sanders 30%
Clinton wins vs.
Trump 65%
Cruz 50%
Kasich 40%
Romney 50%
Ryan 50%
Sanders wins vs.
Trump 70%
Cruz 60%
Kasich 50%
Romney 65%
Ryan 65%
Do the math, probability of being President:
Clinton 47%
Trump 20%
Sanders 12%
Cruz 11%
Kasich 6%
Romney 2%
Ryan 2%
An interesting question I posed to myself today,
“what is the probability of each contestant to be US President?
So, I built a spreadsheet, and worked out the following probabilities.
Based on the following assumptions:
Republicans: Probability of a contested convention 50%
No convention: Trump 90%, Cruz 10%
Convention: Trump 25%, Cruz 35%, Kasich 20%, Romney 10%, Ryan 10%
Democrats: Probability of a contested convention 40%
No convention: Clinton 90%, Sanders 10%
Convention: Clinton 70%, Sanders 30%
Clinton wins vs.
Trump 65%
Cruz 50%
Kasich 40%
Romney 50%
Ryan 50%
Sanders wins vs.
Trump 70%
Cruz 60%
Kasich 50%
Romney 65%
Ryan 65%
Do the math, probability of being President:
Clinton 47%
Trump 20%
Sanders 12%
Cruz 11%
Kasich 6%
Romney 2%
Ryan 2%
Democratic President 59%
Republican President 41%
Crazy, eh!
:D Too much time on your hands :)..........folks, extend his work day.....keep those tournaments coming in for rating!
An interesting question I posed to myself today,
“what is the probability of each contestant to be US President?
So, I built a spreadsheet, and worked out the following probabilities.
Based on the following assumptions:
Republicans: Probability of a contested convention 50%
No convention: Trump 90%, Cruz 10%
Convention: Trump 25%, Cruz 35%, Kasich 20%, Romney 10%, Ryan 10%
Democrats: Probability of a contested convention 40%
No convention: Clinton 90%, Sanders 10%
Convention: Clinton 70%, Sanders 30%
Clinton wins vs.
Trump 65%
Cruz 50%
Kasich 40%
Romney 50%
Ryan 50%
Sanders wins vs.
Trump 70%
Cruz 60%
Kasich 50%
Romney 65%
Ryan 65%
Do the math, probability of being President:
Clinton 47%
Trump 20%
Sanders 12%
Cruz 11%
Kasich 6%
Romney 2%
Ryan 2%
Democratic President 59%
Republican President 41%
Crazy, eh!
How about the probability of a 74 year old man dying in the next four years? And being the president is a pretty demanding job.
Bernie wins Wyoming.
He gets 56% of the vote, but splits the pledged delegates with Hillary, 7 each.
But, to summarize since Mar 15, Sanders has won 7 of 8 states, and 237 of 373 pledged delegates.
If Bernie can win 932 of the remaining 1647 pledged delegates (57%), he would have a majority of pledged delegates. Would then enough super delegates change their vote?
New York is up next. Still a steep hill to climb, but what if he actually wins New York.
Anyway, this race isn't over yet no matter how often the media tells you otherwise.
Well, Bernie got a little burned in New York, but to update the numbers:
New York - pledged delegates: Hillary 139, Bernie 108
So now, if Bernie can win 821 of the remaining 1,400 pledged delegates (59%), he has a majority of pledged delegates.
So again, the question is, if he climbs that hill, would the super delegates do a rethink?
Anyway, the race ain't over yet, no matter how often the media tells you it is!
Well, Bernie got a little burned in New York, but to update the numbers:
New York - pledged delegates: Hillary 139, Bernie 108
So now, if Bernie can win 821 of the remaining 1,400 pledged delegates (59%), he has a majority of pledged delegates.
So again, the question is, if he climbs that hill, would the super delegates do a rethink?
Anyway, the race ain't over yet, no matter how often the media tells you it is!
Ok. But do you honestly expect *all* of the super-delegates to suddenly shift to Sanders. It could happen but if a bunch of them do shift to Sanders, I doubt it would be more than half, and probably much, much less than that.
Ok. But do you honestly expect *all* of the super-delegates to suddenly shift to Sanders. It could happen but if a bunch of them do shift to Sanders, I doubt it would be more than half, and probably much, much less than that.
Steve
Hi Steve,
Of course not. It is more likely Clinton will win the Democratic nomination. If you see my previous post, I gave Bernie only a 30% probability of beating Hillary if he can take the fight to the convention. That was before New York, where she won big, so his chances are now less. But, IMHO, still high enough to say “the race is not over”.
Many of the super delegates are loyal to Clinton, no secret there. But if Bernie gets a majority of pledged delegates, he only needs 50% of the super delegates. If Republicans pick Trump, then Democrats may need their own “outsider” to do combat. Polls show that Bernie does better against Trump than Hillary. Still, a steep uphill battle for Bernie. But, what if….
Of course not. It is more likely Clinton will win the Democratic nomination. If you see my previous post, I gave Bernie only a 30% probability of beating Hillary if he can take the fight to the convention. That was before New York, where she won big, so his chances are now less. But, IMHO, still high enough to say “the race is not over”.
Many of the super delegates are loyal to Clinton, no secret there. But if Bernie gets a majority of pledged delegates, he only needs 50% of the super delegates. If Republicans pick Trump, then Democrats may need their own “outsider” to do combat. Polls show that Bernie does better against Trump than Hillary. Still, a steep uphill battle for Bernie. But, what if….
Hi Bob:
I've hesitated to weigh-in on some of the previous posts that have gone on here, particularly about the swings left and right. I disagree with you on a bunch of that but I hear what you're saying. What a lot of Canadians don't understand is that however much "right wing" they think the PC's are, the U.S. Democrats are even farther to the right. I always see U.S. political contests as "which right-wing party will be more popular".
Thus "Fox News" calls Canada a "socialist" country. They're correct in what they say in many ways, but not what they mean. They mean to say "Communist" which, ummm, we're not. ("Fox News, wrong? Never happens. Ever. They just announced it.)
That all said, I think Hillary stands a better chance against Trump than Sanders.
Personally, I will ***LOVE*** to see Trump as the Republican candidate. Buy some stock in Orville Redenbacher's now!
Re: MSM says Sanders should drop out but Trump rivals stay etc.
If I may, in a word ... clarity.
Without doubt America will vote in the Dem ideology for at least the foreseeable next two terms.
But to me, what Trump brings is a clear (clearly repulsive to some) difference between other Republican candidates that have run before him going way way back, with perhaps Reagan as a rare exception. Trump will play to his strengths, which as I understand them, are from a business perspective. Being self funded delivered with an anti-establishment voice front and center of a two party system.
Clinton will survive that embarrassment even though America continues to carry a ballooning fourteen(?) trillion dollar debt, because quite frankly America has moved left of center.
Bernie or Hillary doesn't matter, for the Reps this election cycle (btw, today I buy a new bike!), was over before it began.
Last edited by Neil Frarey; Saturday, 23rd April, 2016, 01:21 PM.
Entertainment value. It will be fun to sit and watch the bombast while chowing down on a pile of popcorn.
What will be really interesting to see will be who the running mates will be.
Steve
I'd like to see a Trump candidacy do something new - like **two** running mates!! Since Leo Gorcey Jr. and Huntz Hall are no longer available, how about Gary Busey and Jose Canseco?
p.s. how about a 'Clone Shemp' movement?
p.p.s. better yet, what if Trump suddenly adopted all of Shemp's speech patterns and mannerisms but refused to acknowledge to the press that anything had changed? "Jeebeebeebee, oh! oh! oh!"
Last edited by Peter McKillop; Sunday, 24th April, 2016, 11:15 AM.
"We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office." - Aesop
"Only the dead have seen the end of war." - Plato
"If once a man indulges himself in murder, very soon he comes to think little of robbing; and from robbing he comes next to drinking and Sabbath-breaking, and from that to incivility and procrastination." - Thomas De Quincey
I am glad to hear it isn't because you think Trump would be a good President.
Entertaining yes, but in a Twilight Zone kind of way. That show could scare you to the core. They would give you this very unlikely scenario, and show you what might happen. Trump as President could be a twilight zone episode.
The phrase "be careful what you wish for" comes to mind. If the Republicans can't stop Trump, are you so sure the Democrats can? The American voters have demonstrated their capacity to make very bad decisions. Don't forget George W. Bush.
Last edited by Bob Gillanders; Sunday, 24th April, 2016, 12:46 PM.
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