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Re: THE NEW One and Only Climate Change Whatever...
I can't imagine May or her party getting a seat anywhere in this country. I do notice her judgment seems to have improved. She's not running against Peter McKay this time.
It's a funny election. Harper is complaining about coalitions without talking the issues. The conservatives first won on the issue of ethics and they could well lose this one on the same issue.
I recall when the Bloc was the official opposition and it went so well most voters probably don't even recall it. The country didn't end just because the Bloc was the official opposition.
I thought that Elizabeth May was the only person who made any sense at all in the last debate...
Failing a full range of policies, including a statement on what she'll do with the wars in which we are involved, she will likely only get the "flower power" votes. Many of the green buffs vote NDP. They are a better lost cause on the national scale because they win some seats.
I wouldn't think enviromentalists would vote to continue bombing nations back to the middle ages.
I don't recall voting last election so I probably didn't. Maybe this time one of the leaders will promise lots of good stuff for seniors.
I find the existence of Duceppe and the Bloc despicable in the first place.
I thought that Elizabeth May was the only person who made any sense at all in the last debate... When all is said and done, whether she is included or not likely will make no difference - the gigantic herd of sheep are all about to vote and whichever pasture looks greener (no pun intended) will "win", sort of.
Elizabeth May just came off as a shrill attack dog to me in the last English debate.
Harper has said that he is willing to debate Elizabeth May if the networks give in and allow it. I guess he is hoping for some vote splitting effects. May is not likely to win a seat or even come close to winning a seat though that is only my impression and not a prediction based on any knowledge of where she is running. Parachute candidates don't typically win unless their message particularly resonates with the voters and in her case I don't think her message of higher taxes, eco fees etc. is particularly compelling to anyone.
Re: THE NEW One and Only Climate Change Whatever...
I had a final look at the old climate change thread. It appears to have ended badly. I suppose all things end badly or they wouldn't end.
The lack of posts and discussion make me wonder how many participants are working on political campaigns or are candidates for office. Looking at poll numbers today it seems the Green Party and NDP are not making inroads but maybe the polls are wrong. Todays paper tells me May is in a two way race with the conservative in B.C. Who'd have thought? Something about her concentrating mainly on the riding she's contesting this time. The NDP and Liberals were supposed to have a chance in that riding so who knows for sure.
I think the riding I'm in has candidates but I don't know if they will knock off the incumbent. Reading the web it seems the Cons candidate was a major in the military.
I can still remember people getting their grade 8 and joining the military. They failed so many times by time they were finished they were close to 18 so didn't have to hold up the billiard hall wall for all that long. Back then it wasn't like these days. If you didn't pass the exams you failed. One guy failed kindergarden. Even back then it took a real talent to fail kindergarden. That was back in the 1950's when they were joining. Not too long after the Canadian participation in the Korean war. The reality was it was never a war. It was offically a police action of the United Nations. Sounds kind of familiar doesn't it. Truman referred to it as a Police Action.
They used to try to sign up students for the military reserves. I never joined. I was a chess player and what do chess players know about the military and wars.
With one very small exception, I don't have any stocks in Alberta oil and gas. I can't see where there's much money left for shareholders after the current taxes. Sliding tax rates plus provincial and federal royalties. Alberta has been changing their tax rates to find an amount where the companies will still drill and they can get the most money. After a big rise in rates the drilling stopped. Columbia is a more stable political jurisdiction than Alberta, in my opiinion, even though it doesn't appeal to me.
What I like to do is invest in companies which are having problems making money. Turn around stories. Not necessarily small companies but ones that are beat down in price over things like balance sheet items. The idea is to guess which ones will improve and start making more money. It's not an exact science and some go to Zero.
A common theme is they close down divisions and/or move work out of the country. One closed down a paper mill in B.C. and another a plant in Ontario. The one in Ontario had a long strike and they couldn't see a return to profitability so they're closing it down. Some work will be moved to other plants (it's an international company) and the rest sold. One company moved their steel forming off shore. Air Canada, which uses a lot of jet fuel, has adopted what's called a poison pill strategy. That's to stave off unwanted takeover bids because of the low share price. I had been hoping someone would come along with an offer.
Probably the popular liberal candidate in this riding will win. Normally the others simply put up an "opponent" against him. On a personal basis, I like man but wish he were running for the Conservatives.
I was listening to the home care issue. We already have that I don't know what more they want to institute.
Well Iggy has sworn that he won't be a part of a coalition. I have a feeling that we may find out after the election whether he had his fingers crossed or not when he said that.
I predict an improved minority for the Conservatives. Harper hasn't been that sharp out of the gate. I think a Conservative majority will put the nails in the coffin as far as carbon trading is concerned.
Global warming is dead as an issue in the U.S.A. according to Gallup. People are more worried about air quality and water pollution than about carbon dioxide.
Re: THE NEW One and Only Climate Change Whatever...
The thing that annoys me about this campaign is how all of the parties are ignoring the growing housing bubble in this country, caused in part by lax lending standards and interest rates that discourage saving and encourage speculating. It's like the US in 2007.
"Tom is a well known racist, and like most of them he won't admit it, possibly even to himself." - Ed Seedhouse, October 4, 2020.
The thing that annoys me about this campaign is how all of the parties are ignoring the growing housing bubble in this country, caused in part by lax lending standards and interest rates that discourage saving and encourage speculating. It's like the US in 2007.
It seems to me most of the U.S. states have non recourse mortgages. The liability is limited to the asset. I seem to recall Alberta is also like that with the exception being those with CMHC mortgages.
That's part of the reason the problem is so big in the U.S.
It seems to me most of the U.S. states have non recourse mortgages. The liability is limited to the asset. I seem to recall Alberta is also like that with the exception being those with CMHC mortgages.
That's part of the reason the problem is so big in the U.S.
Non recourse mortgages probably came about because no one believed that home prices could decline.
Those who Titanic do not unsinkable learn from Titanic history are unsinkable doomed to Titanic repeat it unsinkable.
The U.S. government default? Pffft!
Only the rushing is heard...
Onward flies the bird.
Re: THE NEW One and Only Climate Change Whatever...
Well there was a bombshell in the Windsor Star today as far as local and Ontario issues are concerned. The Liberal Party platform has not provided any funding for the DRIC bridge nor the loan to the Michigan government for their half of the span which is deemed essential in order to get additional matching highway funding from the U.S. government. Looks like the Sierra Club gets its wish and the wish of its high profile donor if the Liberals get elected and the new bridge is killed. Dick Morris who is a fixture on Fox News is apparently helping the Ambassador Bridge Company in its twelfth hour bid to stop its competitor from seeing the light of day.
The question is whether this oversight is the result of incompetence or intention. There was one top Liberal strategist who came out against the deal but most indications had been that the proposed project had all party support.
The Liberals have fallen to third place in most of the local races with the NDP being the main beneficiaries. Maybe they are ready to cut Windsor loose.
Last edited by Vlad Drkulec; Tuesday, 5th April, 2011, 10:29 AM.
Re: THE NEW One and Only Climate Change Whatever...
All signs imo point to a massive housing bubble:
- Interest rates are rising, and will undoubtedly rise more soon. This will make it more expensive to borrow and depress prices.
- Canadian consumer debt continues to increase as a percentage of yearly income. Less disposable income causes the economy to contract.
- More and more Canadians have almost no assets except whatever equity they have in their homes. Putting all your financial eggs in one illiquid basket is madness.
- Home prices continue to outstrip wage increases. Many of the major cities have home prices that are 5x, 8x, even 12x (hello, Vancouver!) average yearly family incomes. Consider that "normal" is in the 3x to 4x range.
- Boomers are now beginning to reach retirement age. Over the next 3 decades there will be a great deal of downsizing as people exit their single family dwellings for condos, retirement homes and cemetery plots. Who is going to want to buy them?
- I read that about 70% of families are now home owners. There aren't many people left who would be even remotely qualified to buy homes. Canadian numbers of home owners per capita have reached American pre-bust levels. Sure, there aren't a lot of NINJA (no income, no job, no assets) loans, but I find it hard to believe that this many people have enough income and assets to afford houses at these prices.
I think that the Conservatives at least recognize there is a problem by limiting the duration of mortgages with pathetic down payments from 40 years to 35 to 30, which surely will depress home prices as people will either have to come up with a larger down payment or make bigger monthly payments.
I think the CMHC should be scrapped. No way that taxpayers should be backstopping bad lending and bad borrowing practices for those who want to buy without proper means. Anyone who can't put at least 20% as a down payment should buy a less expensive home, imo. I think even 20% is very generous...
"Tom is a well known racist, and like most of them he won't admit it, possibly even to himself." - Ed Seedhouse, October 4, 2020.
Re: THE NEW One and Only Climate Change Whatever...
The few years less amortization doesn't make that much difference. On 250K at 5% for 35 years it's around $1255.00 a month, 30 years $1335.00 and 25 years $1455.00 calculated on monthly payments. (Your figures might vary as mine are quickly calculated.) It's just not that much of a difference.
I thought CMHC is mortgage insurance which helps to get a loan. It's not only individuals. It's also for things like seniors housing. Helps the companies get lower mortgage rates and in the end they can charge lower rental or care rates.
I don't know what the default rates are on those CMHC guaranteed mortgages. Do you? Without knowing, I don't have an opinion on if they should be scrapped.
I see the non recourse mortgages as more of a problem. Simply don't invest in institutions which lend in that kind of market or give them deposits.
Ireland is a classic housing bubble. I don't normally talk about this kind of thing, Tom, but I got caught up in that mess to a small extent. After Ireland did their bank stress tests I bought some shares in one of the banks. A very small gamble I thought made some sense and I understood it was risky. Turns out those stress tests were not very stressful and they had to redo them. Anyhow, those shares are worth about half or less than what I paid. I keep it like a pet, to remind me what happens when I get stupid. Never again! It's like a chess game where I come out of the opening with a disadvantage and the opponents keeps turning the screws. Never bad enough to resign quickly but no light at the end of the tunnel.
Actually, I think getting rid of non recourse mortgages would be a good idea. The easiest way would be to not allow financial institutions to give those kind of mortgages. Of course, the Conservative power base is Alberta so I don't expect that. Shortening the mortgage terms is superficial.
Anyhow, were at the point in the economical cycle where we should do OK. We send the Americans all our oil and they send us all their money. When they run out, they print more. I think we're now shipping them over 2 million barrels a day. That doesn't even count the Billions of cubic ft. of natural gas we ship them daily. Our dollar isn't higher than theirs for no reason.
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