COVID-19 ... how we cope :)

[Garland Best]

A PCR rate of 47 will mix false positives with true positives. ... Unfortunately setting the PCR amp rate at 47 is a major blunder as we are deprived of reliable data. Better would have been to do both an amplification of 30 and 47 so that you could distinguish the true positives with possible false positives and then repeat the process on the patient a few days later to see if the viral load increased ie detectable at lower amplification rates.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_c...ature=emb_logo

I missed something somewhere. Where is this information that test labs have set policies increasing the number of cycles for PCR testing to be increased from 30 cycles to 47 cycles to indicate positive results? Please provide the links again, in case I missed it.

[Sid Belzberg]

I missed something somewhere. Where is this information that test labs have set policies increasing the number of cycles for PCR testing to be increased from 30 cycles to 47 cycles to indicate positive results? Please provide the links again, in case I missed it.

FDA link below

In the link below, go to section 4 "PCR Amplification"

Steps 1 through Step 4

Step 1 1 cycle
Step 2 ! cycle
Step 3 5 cycles
Step 4 40 Cycles
Total Cycles 47

https://www.fda.gov/media/137120/download

UK National Health Services Link

Page 21 45 cycles
https://www.england.nhs.uk/coronavir...atories-v1.pdf
WHO guidelines CT=47 These are the guidelines used in Canada.

https://www.who.int/diagnostics_labo...e_2.0.pdf?ua=1

Dr.Carl Henegan Oxford Professor Editor of British Medical Journal BMJ

“A cut-off RT-PCR Ct > 30 was associated with non-infectious samples.” 8/n"

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....04.20167932v3

Another study below

“The lowest viral load (Ct value) for which there was positive culture growth was 34.3.”
No live viruses are found at CT values of 30 or 34 and above.
All what these tests are detecting is old debris of the virus.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7323671/

“SARS-CoV-2 cell infectivity was only observed for RT-PCR Ct < 24 and STT < 8 days.” STT: Symptom To Test To diagnose:
1) PCR (+/-)
2) Ct (cycle threshold)
3)Time of symptom onset (to determine time point of infection)

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32442256/

Looking across several different PCR amplifications protocols used outside the FDA guidelines the average level is slightly lower at 40 however, given it is an exponential scale it is still at a level where the only thing that will be picked up is old debris of virus completely non infectious.

Is it time to listen to the evidence and change the guidelines? Reducing the Ct cut-off of the PCR test would reduce the false positives, and the unjustified restrictions on people's lives

[Steve Douglas]

Some more logs for the PCR amplification fire:

https://www.thestkittsnevisobserver.com/covid-confusion-on-pcr-testing-maybe-most-of-those-positives-are-negatives/


https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/infect...sult-covid-19/

If someone has already posted these links before, sorry for adding to the pile. I chose these because they were mostly plain-english.

Steve

[Neil Frarey]

CDC clarifications made on September 18, 2020

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reversed course again Friday, now recommending that people get tested if they come into contact with someone who has coronavirus, even if they are asymptomatic.

Due to the significance of asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic transmission, this guidance further reinforces the need to test asymptomatic persons, including close contacts of a person with documented SARS-CoV-2 infection.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...-overview.html

[Neil Frarey]

Ottawa. Sept. 18 ... here's a breakdown of all known COVID-19 cases by age category:

0-9 years old: Six new cases (156 cases total)
10-19 years-old: Eight new cases (285 cases total)
20-29 years-old: 20 new cases (656 cases total)
30-39 years-old: Seven new cases (484 cases total)
40-49 years-old: Ten new cases (449 cases total)
50-59 years-old: Seven new case (443 cases total)
60-69-years-old: Three new cases (333 cases total)
70-79 years-old: Two new cases (231 cases total)
80-89 years-old: Zero new cases (299 cases total)
90+ years: Zero new cases (210 cases total)

Greatest number being in the 20-29 years-old ...

[Sid Belzberg]

Some more logs for the PCR amplification fire:

https://www.thestkittsnevisobserver.com/covid-confusion-on-pcr-testing-maybe-most-of-those-positives-are-negatives/


https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/infect...sult-covid-19/

If someone has already posted these links before, sorry for adding to the pile. I chose these because they were mostly plain-english.

Steve

The second link you provided. is the Centre For Evidence Based Medicine. The director of this center is run by Dr. Carl Heneghan. Here are here his credentials: Carl Heneghan is a clinical epidemiologist with expertise in evidence-based medicine, research methods, and evidence synthesis.

He is Director of the NIHR SPCR Evidence Synthesis Working Group a collaboration of nine primary care departments across UK universities.

He set up and directs the Oxford COVID Evidence Service, has over 400 peer-reviewed publications (current H Index 67); published 95 systematic reviews.

He is Editor in Chief of BMJ Evidence-Based Medicine, and Editor of the Catalogue of Bias. Director of CEBM & Programs in EBHC Editor in Chief, BMJ EBM NHS Urgent Care GP NIHR Senior Investigator.

Here is his finding re PCRs “ in his paper.

A cut-off RT-PCR Ct > 30 was associated with non-infectious samples.” 8/n"

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....04.20167932

In other words beyond 30 amplifications we are picking up non infectious viral debris.


Here are his findings regarding face masks. The video below is truly worth listening to.

“That’s how you have to think about uncertainty. If u don’t put a policy in place that’s fine. What u can’t do is say it’s evidence based."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QNI2...ature=youtu.be

Also here is a lecture in "plain Englis"h by Dr Carl Heneghan about PCR tests and the threshold of around 25 where beyond that you pick up mostly people with dead non infectious viral debirs with trace RNA left.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nZ5GKKvOVlo\

This includes PCR tesitng cylcles at 22 labs across Canada where the average amplification cycles are 37

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/art...2/pdf/main.pdf

This paper shows that above 24 amplification non infectious debirs.

https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance...iaa638/5842165

[Dilip Panjwani]

Lockdown failing. We must follow the Swedish model and learn to live with Covid

Sweden’s approach to the pandemic, trusting people to make sensible choices rather than imposing strict restrictions backed by law, has been in stark contrast to the rest of the world.
Most importantly, they are allowed to make our own risk-based choices; they are not dictated to by politicians.
Their infection rate is falling – while the rest of Europe’s is rising – they’ve been proven right. They chose the long-term strategy, not unsustainable suppression. They can’t have a second wave because they didn’t try to stop the first one, and now, as other countries like Britain are reimposing restrictions, they are enjoying near-normality. The consensus is that lockdown was a populist, knee-jerk reaction that’s unworkable and of dubious effect. And the recent rounds of opening up and then closing down have consolidated this view.
In the beginning, they too made a serious mistake in not taking extra precautions for the elderly/vulnerable, which was surprising and which unfortunately meant a lot of elderly lives lost...
(detailed article in The Telegraph)

[Aris Marghetis]

The States' per capita death rate has just passed the UK's.

Here are the worst 10 (#1 & #4 are tiny) in deaths per million:

1) San Marino @ 1237
2) Peru @ 949
3) Belgium @ 857
4) Andorra @ 686
5) Spain @ 652
6) Bolivia @ 648
7) Brazil @ 641
8) Chile @ 640
9) Ecuador @ 626
10) USA @ 615

[Bob Gillanders]

The States' per capita death rate has just passed the UK's.

Here are the worst 10 (#1 & #4 are tiny) in deaths per million:

1) San Marino @ 1237
2) Peru @ 949
3) Belgium @ 857
4) Andorra @ 686
5) Spain @ 652
6) Bolivia @ 648
7) Brazil @ 641
8) Chile @ 640
9) Ecuador @ 626
10) USA @ 615

Aris, if you had extended your worst 10 list just a little,
you would find Sweden in 13th place at 580 deaths per million.

I mention it only because of the post above claiming victory for Sweden in their battle against COVID.

A friend of mine has for months been defending the Sweden approach, so I did follow their numbers as they shot up.
I hope for the best for them, but maybe it is too soon for them to claim victory?
I was wondering what you thought.

[Dilip Panjwani]

The States' per capita death rate has just passed the UK's.

Here are the worst 10 (#1 & #4 are tiny) in deaths per million:

1) San Marino @ 1237
2) Peru @ 949
3) Belgium @ 857
4) Andorra @ 686
5) Spain @ 652
6) Bolivia @ 648
7) Brazil @ 641
8) Chile @ 640
9) Ecuador @ 626
10) USA @ 615

To put this in perspective, the expected mortality per million in a year is about 12,500.
Nevertheless, each life is worth saving...

[Aris Marghetis]

To put this in perspective, the expected mortality per million in a year is about 12,500.
Nevertheless, each life is worth saving...

I'm not sure what your point is. Whatever normal mortality rates are, these numbers are increased mortality due to COVID. Over time, I expect they'll grow more as Excess Deaths are improved.

Regardless, I'm interested in comparisons between countries. It boggles my mind that the States is in the 10 worst. At any other time in my life, I would have expected them to be among the best.

What do y'all think? Am I one of the few who thought/hoped the States would fare better?

P.S. to Bob regarding Sweden: I don't know much about that. I wonder if they've found a sweet spot in their "freedom to be compliant"? Here in Ottawa, there's so many people acting ignorantly.

[Pargat Perrer]

I'm not sure what your point is. Whatever normal mortality rates are, these numbers are increased mortality due to COVID. Over time, I expect they'll grow more as Excess Deaths are improved.

Regardless, I'm interested in comparisons between countries. It boggles my mind that the States is in the 10 worst. At any other time in my life, I would have expected them to be among the best.

What do y'all think? Am I one of the few who thought/hoped the States would fare better?

P.S. to Bob regarding Sweden: I don't know much about that. I wonder if they've found a sweet spot in their "freedom to be compliant"? Here in Ottawa, there's so many people acting ignorantly.

Why would you expect the U.S. to be among the best in per capita deaths? Because of their health care system which is designed to keep old people alive for as long as possible to enhance hospital earnings?

That would actually make sense, except you are forgetting American selfishness, otherwise knows as "freedom". It is this selfishness / freedom that makes Americans not want to wear masks or be told they can't go for a salon or barber visit or a concert or a Trump rally, while the communist Chinese will accept the sacrifice of wearing masks and staying away from crowds.

I said it here before, in any scenario EXCEPT a pandemic capitalism beats communism, but in a pandemic, communism wins easily. China has handled the virus better than any other nation on Earth. I am not a communist, barely even a social democrat, but it is very obvious: in a pandemic, those who can live selflessly are going to succeed best.

And perhaps that is the secret to Sweden as well, since they haven't been ordered to wear masks or stay away from crowds but they have done so of their own accord. But in weighing how well Sweden has done, their eonomic numbers have to be compared as well. The pandemic is about deaths per capita versus economic stagnation, one has to look at both. And again, I think China has done better than anybody with both sides of the coin considered.

So in that sense, I think Sid Belzberg's argument that we should consider the pandemic "over" may have some merit. That is because if we do lockdown over the winter, the economic damage may far outweigh the saving of individual lives. We literally may have to sacrifice lives to save a larger number of lives. I am not saying this for certain, a lot depends on just how lethal the second wave of the virus becomes, but we should consider what Sid is saying. The governments of the world cannot indefinitely print money out of thin air while very few people work. It is a recipe for economic collapse.

[Tom O'Donnell]

I'm not sure what your point is. Whatever normal mortality rates are, these numbers are increased mortality due to COVID. Over time, I expect they'll grow more as Excess Deaths are improved.

Regardless, I'm interested in comparisons between countries. It boggles my mind that the States is in the 10 worst. At any other time in my life, I would have expected them to be among the best.

What do y'all think? Am I one of the few who thought/hoped the States would fare better?

P.S. to Bob regarding Sweden: I don't know much about that. I wonder if they've found a sweet spot in their "freedom to be compliant"? Here in Ottawa, there's so many people acting ignorantly.

I would expect countries with a greater percentage of seniors, obese people, and ones where people are indoors more to have proportionally more deaths.

[Hans Jung]

If you check the stats for the US military you will see 93 deaths. Now I was always led to believe that the military were amongst the fittest in the country, annual fitness tests and daily exercise, and of course retired by age 55. So why the 93 deaths? (of course we know the virus is nasty) Now admittedly greater percentage of seniors, obese people, and people being indoors more are huge target areas but the question about the military is an interesting one. Why?

[Hans Jung]

Checking countries with low death stats and low case counts it would be interesting to know what they are doing right, what are they doing different from the ones with huge case counts and high death stats.