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Dark Knight / Le Chevalier Noir
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---- Nous avons besoin d'un traduction français!
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Vlad should stick with chess instead of thinking he knows anything about climate change. Then again, based on recent play maybe he should take up tiddly winks instead...
There you go again Paul. You are always such a pessimist. It is odd that we can both look at the same data and come to wildly different conclusions about the significance of the trends. I guess I am an optimist so I can't really understand your relentless negativity. I look at the peak performances and feel encouraged, you look at some mildly discouraging results and are ready to throw in the towel.
When you play as much as I do slumps are almost inevitable from time to time. I am not really in a slump though. The sports psychologists would characterize it as a plateau as I seem to be alternating mildly poor results with some reasonable results. I am traveling sideways with my progress resembling a gentle sine wave. In the last six months I have been integrating new openings into my repertoire and learning new ideas of playing against certain pawn structures which tends to depress your results in the short term but should help in the long term. It would be a mistake to assume that there is nothing happening when you are riding the plateau and many people make the mistake of giving up by not seeing that this time on the plateau is preparing you for the next breakout to a higher level.
In the last six months I have played in about a dozen [EDIT: eleven actually] tournaments and had two performance ratings of 2300+ (2316, 2336), four of 2200+ (2258, 2288, 2238, 2240), two at about the 2100 level (2094, 2138), one at 2054 and two at about 1900 (1890, 1915) [EDIT: for a median performance of 2238]. Many of the out of town tournaments involved travel, sometimes in bad weather and sometimes on the day of the tournament. I am not always there at my best but I am there trying to do my best.
I am not going to be so uncharitable as to compare my recent record to yours but the gentle reader can rest assured that the comparison would not be favourable to you. When you attack someone personally with what you perceive to be a soul diss you reveal a lot about yourself and what you value and what you are anxious about. What you reveal to me is that you have some issues with your own chess performances over the last few years. Similarly when you attacked my academic credentials it seemed to me that those attacks were rooted in your own academic anxieties (ie washing out in your Phd attempt).
Last edited by Vlad Drkulec; Monday, 16th May, 2011, 02:56 PM.
Re: THE NEW One and Only Climate Change Whatever...
Come on guys! The world may or may not be heading for climactic disaster and you're trading personal attacks and discussing chess! Get back on topic before we all wash away!
I lived in LA for a while and used to visit regularly. My first visit in October of 1999, I was greeted by 100 degree Fahrenheit plus temperatures. We used to joke that there were two seasons there, Summer for fifty one weeks and Winter which lasted for about a week around Christmas where the temperatures approached the 30s for a few minutes each evening.
Last edited by Vlad Drkulec; Monday, 16th May, 2011, 03:24 PM.
Come on guys! The world may or may not be heading for climactic disaster and you're trading personal attacks and discussing chess! Get back on topic before we all wash away!
Its the end of the world as we know it,
and I feel fine... REM
Come on guys! The world may or may not be heading for climactic disaster and you're trading personal attacks and discussing chess! Get back on topic before we all wash away!
And then they shut down the power all along the line,
and we got stuck in the tunnel where no lights shine.
...
Nobody was saying anything at all.
We were waiting for the end of the world,
waiting for the end of the world,
waiting for the end of the world.
Dear Lord I sincerely hope you're coming
'cause you really started something.
Re: THE NEW One and Only Climate Change Whatever...
The peak Ontario Green Energy program price is now 27 times the weighted average wholesale price paid to all electricity producers since January 1st of this year.
I was not even referring to any recent examples but rather to what happened in February and March of this year. The cold weather is somewhat unprecedented in those parts to appropriate one of Paul Beckwith's over-used turns of phrase.
Re: THE NEW One and Only Climate Change Whatever...
Interesting article, on the resource crunch...
"Now, despite a massive increase in fertilizer use, the growth in crop yields per acre has declined from 3.5% in the 1960s to 1.2% today. There is little productive new land to bring on and, as people get richer, they eat more grain-intensive meat. Because the population continues to grow at over 1%, there is little safety margin."
Re: THE NEW One and Only Climate Change Whatever...
The good old Malthusian argument once again rears its head though you may not have got that far in your reasoning yet. This will be another of your "do as I say and not as I do" moments.
Re: THE NEW One and Only Climate Change Whatever...
The GMO commodity index tracks 33 items. Not all foodstuffs. While the graph was equally weighted at "inititiation", as it states, I don't know what it is now so will hold off on drawing conclusions.
"Note: The GMO commodity index is an index comprised of the following 33 commodities, equally weighted at
initiation: aluminum, coal, coconut oil, coffee, copper, corn, cotton, diammonium phosphate, flaxseed, gold, iron
ore, jute, lard, lead, natural gas, nickel, oil, palladium, palm oil, pepper, platinum, plywood, rubber, silver, sorghum,
soybeans, sugar, tin, tobacco, uranium, wheat, wool, zinc"
Re: THE NEW One and Only Climate Change Whatever...
"Now, despite a massive increase in fertilizer use, the growth in crop yields per acre has declined from 3.5% in the 1960s to 1.2% today. There is little productive new land to bring on and, as people get richer, they eat more grain-intensive meat. Because the population continues to grow at over 1%, there is little safety margin."
The growth in crop yields? Crop yields are still growing, just not as fast as they were before the revolution in agriculture in the 1960s. We probably need more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to help yields grow further.
Do we rate this man's views on resource depletion more highly than the views of Vlad and Garry? I do. The smart money will go with him. I would say that Vlad and Garry have lost their objectivity; they try to discount anything I post no matter how ridiculous they look. I do my research...(PS. Vlad, if you actually read the report he discusses Malthus and the era that he wrote in...)
...bio for Jeremy Grantham is below...
Jeremy Grantham
Mr. Grantham co-founded GMO in 1977. Prior to GMO’s founding, Mr. Grantham was co-founder of Batterymarch Financial Management in 1969 where he recommended commercial indexing in 1971, one of several claims to being first. He began his investment career as an economist with Royal Dutch Shell. Mr. Grantham is GMO’s chief investment strategist and is an active member of GMO’s asset allocation division. He is a member of the GMO Board and has also served on investment boards of several non-profit organizations. Mr. Grantham has been featured in Forbes, Barron’s and Business Week and is routinely quoted by the financial press. He earned his undergraduate degree from the University of Sheffield (U.K.) and an M.B.A. from Harvard Business School.
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