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Dark Knight / Le Chevalier Noir
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Why would anyone bet that much when the odds are 50% ?
Kerry,
You are right that there would unlikely be reason to bet $1,000 on a 50-50 shot.
However, if the offer included that you only put up $950 then you might accept if you had no need for the $950.
I have in the past accepted such large bets at 50-50 from someone who had lost a large amount to me at backgammon - just to be sporting and maintain good 'client' relations.
I greatly respect Jean Hebert's passion for the game of chess. In this case, however, I believe he overreaches. The question is whether a pre-arranged draw is contrary to the rules of chess and I believe the answer has been shown to be No.
What ??? How do you understand this then ? Handbook :: C. General Rules and Recommendations for Tournaments
06. FIDE Tournament Rules
8. Play ]
(f) Where it is clear games have been pre-arranged, the CA shall impose suitable penalties.
Does this sound to you in any way like an approval, an acceptance or a tolerance for prearranged games ? Which word exactly is not clear to you ? You should go beyond my "passion" and start having a bit more respect for my opinions in chess matters. This would, at times like this one, protect you against major blunders.
As a final note, I believe it is unfortunate that Jean has raised a legitimate question in such a personal manner, targeting the Canadian champion. GM Sambuev is not the first, nor will he be the last, to play strictly according to the current rules and should not be singled out in this manner.
Once again you are demonstrably mistaken on all counts. First of all, a prearranged game ( an occurence which you seem to agree with and approve despite common sense and the clear rule quoted above) clearly goes contrary not only to chess rules but against elementary sport ethics. Yes, it was not the first nor the last time it happens, but to me this is no reason to turn a blind eye to it. Secondly I did not raise this "legitimate question". Somebody else started it on Parlons-Échecs and then another person brought it up on ChessTalk! I think they were right to do it, but I did not bring it up publicly myself. I even declined an invitation from Larry Bevand to translate my first post on the subject and put it on ChessTalk, by inviting him instead to do it if he wished. But once started by somebody else, I could hardly stay away since I was the main witness of what happened.
Your lack of thoroughness and judgment on this matter is frankly astounding and a big disappoinment for a man of your reputation. Does this has anything to do with the fact that I have been very critical of your contribution in creating the mess that is called "the CFC-FQE deal" ? Some people (well, maybe one or two) have supported that deal based on your reputation and professional achievements. I think that this post of yours proves that to be totally unjustified.
Last edited by Jean Hébert; Sunday, 2nd September, 2012, 05:05 PM.
How are the odds 50% if you take into consideration past events?
That is the whole point. Past events do not influence upcoming events!
The odds of a head or tail (assuming a true/unbiased coin toss) are equal regardless of all the coin tosses that have ever previously occurred in the universe.
That is the whole point. Past events do not influence upcoming events!
So how about this scenario:
Jim has just flipped 20 heads in a row with a truly unbiased coin. He then bets you that he will get a tails. If heads is shown he will give you 500$. If tails is shown you will give him 100$.
Would you take his offer?
PS I work as an investment associate so I do know a little bit about these kind of things :)
Jim has just flipped 20 heads in a row with a truly unbiased coin. He then bets you that he will get a tails. If heads is shown he will give you 500$. If tails is shown you will give him 100$.
Would you take his offer?
PS I work as an investment associate so I do know a little bit about these kind of things :)
Andy, you sound like someone who would be great at backgammon! Once you learned the basics you would be a holy terror!
Jim has just flipped 20 heads in a row with a truly unbiased coin. He then bets you that he will get a tails. If heads is shown he will give you 500$. If tails is shown you will give him 100$.
Would you take his offer?
PS I work as an investment associate so I do know a little bit about these kind of things :)
Once again, the 20 heads in a row is irrelevant. You are then asking would I (or should anyone) take a bet where the chances are 50% heads and 50% tails, Heads pays $500 and tails pays -$100. That is a pretty decent bet to take.
PS: Investing is betting, so I guess you are in the right vocation.
Remember: lottery tickets are a tax on the mathematically impaired.
Did anyone hear them prearrange the game? any witnesses? or is this just a case of circumstantial evidence?
unless actual evidence is brought forward this just looks like another case of 'grandmaster draws'. If GM Sambuev chose to offer a draw after 8 moves because he got a better payout then so be it... If I remember correctly there was another thread about someone playing in a lower section just for the money... whats good for the goose...
If anyone brings forth actual evidence to prove that this was prearranged... please present it and then the proper authorities can investigate. Until then this discussion is just pissing in the wind.
Jim has just flipped 20 heads in a row with a truly unbiased coin. He then bets you that he will get a tails. If heads is shown he will give you 500$. If tails is shown you will give him 100$.
Would you take his offer?
PS I work as an investment associate so I do know a little bit about these kind of things :)
How's he doing the toss. Is he tossing it up and letting it land on a hard floor? Or is he flipping the coin, catching it and then either consistently showing it as it lands in his hand or turning it over on the back of his hand?
Last edited by Gary Ruben; Sunday, 2nd September, 2012, 07:14 PM.
How's he doing the toss. Is he tossing it up and letting it land on a hard floor? Or is he flipping the coin, catching it and then either consistently showing it as it lands in his hand or turning it over on the back of his hand?
Truly unbiased coin. Just throws it up and lets it hit ground.
Your lack of thoroughness and judgment on this matter is frankly astounding and a big disappoinment for a man of your reputation. Does this has anything to do with the fact that I have been very critical of your contribution in creating the mess that is called "the CFC-FQE deal" ? Some people (well, maybe one or two) have supported that deal based on your reputation and professional achievements. I think that this post of yours proves that to be totally unjustified.
You are doing it again, Jean. Because I recognize a contrary opinion to your own I must have impaired judgment in all matters.
I prefer to regard you as the Grand Old Man of Canadian chess, not the "grumpy old man".
And I regard GM Sambuev as the legitimate Canadian Champion based on his outstanding performance.
That is the whole point. Past events do not influence upcoming events!
The odds of a head or tail (assuming a true/unbiased coin toss) are equal
Not necessarily true. In particular, someone who has trained himself to toss the coin with a certain velocity and angular momentum can get a non-random distribution of heads vs tails. There is a reason why craps tables require that the dice hit the wall at the other end of the table.... I've seen papers on people building coin flipping machines to produce a given result.
In addition, if you google the subject, there are whole other ways to win the coin toss. For example, toss the coin, catch it on your wrist covering it with your hand, then by touch determine if the top side is heads or tails. If it's heads, lift your hand to show heads. If it's tails, turn your wrist and hand upside down - lift your wrist and show heads.
It is a fallacy to assert that a coin or die has a property called "unbiased". Acheiving a random distribution requires a much larger set of conditions over how the coin toss is performed than just the physical properties of the coin
Not necessarily true. In particular, someone who has trained himself to toss the coin with a certain velocity and angular momentum can get a non-random distribution of heads vs tails. There is a reason why craps tables require that the dice hit the wall at the other end of the table.... I've seen papers on people building coin flipping machines to produce a given result.
In addition, if you google the subject, there are whole other ways to win the coin toss. For example, toss the coin, catch it on your wrist covering it with your hand, then by touch determine if the top side is heads or tails. If it's heads, lift your hand to show heads. If it's tails, turn your wrist and hand upside down - lift your wrist and show heads.
It is a fallacy to assert that a coin or die has a property called "unbiased". Acheiving a random distribution requires a much larger set of conditions over how the coin toss is performed than just the physical properties of the coin
Kerry said "assuming a true/unbiased coin toss".... Didn't you read?
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